Updates on the PAF's Long Range Patrol Aircraft Acquisition - It looks like the P-3C Orion afterall

Since the failure of the 1st bidding attempt for the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) acquisition project, the Department of National Defense (DND) has not restarted the bidding for a second attempt, which is the most possible direction the DND would be going to. None of the possible bidders made it through the submission of bids, even after Elbit Systems and IAI Elta, both from Israel, submitted their Motion for Reconsideration for the DND to consider their bids.

The other contenders for the project were Saab Asia Pacific, L3 Mission Integration, Lockheed Martin, PT Dirgantara Indonesia, and CASA-Airbus Defense and Space. This project and bid failure was previously discussed in an older MaxDefense blog entry's update section dated August 11, 2014 (bottom part).

With China's aggressive expansion in the West Philippine Sea, including the Kalayaan Group of Islands and the Philippines' own Exclusive Economic Zone, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has been dependent on the limited surveillance capbilities of the PAF's Fokker F-27 Friendships, C-130 Hercules, and N-22B Nomads, as well as the Philippine Navy's BN-2 Islander fixed wing aircraft. All of these are not designed for maritime patrol and surveillance and are actually tactical transport aircraft. Aside from these assets, the AFP has become dependent on the information provided by the US military through the US Navy's P-3C Orion and P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircrafts. Both types are rotationally stationed at Clark Air Base in Pampanga in support of maritime patrols at the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea area.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion is currently the most prolific MPA asset of the US Navy.

Without a truly capable maritime patrol surveillance capability, this type of aircraft has become one of the most sought-after equipment for the AFP Modernization Program. With the recent updates on the policies of the United States government, as well as other friendly countries like Japan and Australia, other options have been made available to the DND & AFP to fill-in this requirement. But one thing is certain: all options from these countries revolve around the Lockheed P-3C Orion MPA.

Previously the PAF operated F-27MPA Maritime Patrol Aircraft like the one shown above, but were retired only after a few years after losses and lack of maintenance.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion:
Ever since the PAF sought for a replacement for its Fokker F-27MPA Maritimes in the late 1980s, they have always been fixated at the possibility of acquiring the Lockheed P-3 Orion from the Americans. This was especially true they try to compare themselves with other American allies in the Western Pacific region like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, who all have this aircraft in their inventories. The aircraft's ruggedness and flight performance, proven surveillance capabilities, compatibility and interoperability with the Philippines' main ally and strategic partners made it a very logical choice.

Among other ASEAN militaries, only Thailand operates the P-3 as its primary MPA asset.
Photo copyright Analayo Korsakul c/o Airliners.net. 

Its surveillance systems are designed to detect and monitor surface activities, as well as detecting submarines underneath the sea. Aside from being a surveillance platform, it also has the capabilities to carry and launch US-standard anti-submarine torpedoes and anti-ship missiles, as well as depth charges which makes it an all-in-one platform for naval purposes.

Although bristling with all the bells and whistles that the PAF and PN dreams off, there are also downsides on the Orion, mainly on its airframe and design age, and operating costs. Being an aircraft model based on the 1950s Lockheed Electra turboprop airliner, the design has become out of date. And with the "Charlie" model built by Lockheed in the 1970s to 1980s, the airframes are now reaching almost 40 years old on the first batches. Its 4-engine configuration using the Allison T56, which is the same as those used by the Lockheed C-130H in PAF service, are also expected to consume more fuel than smaller, newer 2-engined aircraft like the CASA-Airbus C-295 already in service with the PAF. There were already previous reports wherein the PAF was having difficulty operating C-130s because of fuel consumption, so operating the P-3C won't be any different.

Spare parts will also be another issue, as it is only available from the US, and partly from Japan (being a licensed builder of the type), and new parts will surely be on a decline as the type is already out of production, and most major P-3 operators are already shifting to newer models like the USN and RAAF to the P-8A, and the JMSDF to the P-1. These were actually among the reasons why the DND decided to go for a public bidding process to acquire MPA for the PAF. But for some reason, the decision to reconsider the plan to acquire P-3C might mean some positive changes in the defense planning and budget allocations for the PAF recently that may not be available to the public.

An illustration of the Lockheed P-3C Orion showing its design features.

Recently, there were several news reports of the Philippine government's agreements with the US and Japanese government for military assistance including possible transfer of excess defense articles. And the most reported equipment being prioritized for transfer are P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft.

A JMSDF P-3C (left) and a USN P-3C (right) fly overhead a USN Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Houston (center) during Exercise Keen Sword 2011.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Main Option: US Navy Lockheed P-3C:
With the US Navy being the main user of the P-3C, and is slowly shifting to the new Boeing P-8A Poseidon to replace the old workhorse, the US is the most possible source of excess P-3C for the PAF. It is believed that this request, among with other equipment, were discussed by Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and his American counterpart Ashton Carter in Hawaii mid this week. Some DND and PAF sources told MaxDefense recently that there was a request for between 2 to 4 P-3C Orions to the Americans for use and deployment to WPS patrol missions, although it is also unconfirmed yet if it was the Americans who made the offer. They are expected to operate together with USN P-3C and P-8A aircraft based in Japan but are temporarily stationed at Clark Air Base.

The most possible option is for the Americans to transfer aircraft that are stored by the Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Center (AMARC) in the continental United States, and refurbish it as part of a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) deal. But there is a possibility, due to the urgency of the requirement, for the DND to push for a "hot transfer" of the aircraft, meaning a direct transfer of a servicable unit to the PAF with refurbishing to follow later on, to speed-up the process. 

USN P-3C Orions rotationally based at Clark Air Base. A hot transfer can be made by directly handing over a fully-serviceable aircraft to the Philippine Air Force while the aircraft is in the Philippines.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Secondary Option: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Kawasaki P-3C Orion:
Aside from the Americans, another possible option of sourcing P-3C are those from Japan. Built under license by Kawasaki starting in 1978 up to 1997, the P-3C used by the JMSDF are said to be among the most well maintained and newest airframes in the world. Japan currently operates the second largest fleet of P-3C Orions in the world, but will be slowly shifting to the longer ranged, newer, jet powered, and homegrown Kawasaki P-1 aircraft. 

Being among the most affected by the aggressiveness of China, Japan is a more willing partner in strengthening the capability of the Philippine armed forces, in the hope that a strong AFP can be an effective force in a common goal of containing China's expansion efforts, and to be a strong partner for stability in the region. Japan has always been open in providing the necessary aid to its friendly neighbors, and with its recent changes in policy of exporting weapons and arms, the Philippines are among those expected to be on the receiving end. Recent press releases already indicated the request by the Philippine government for excess P-3C Orions from the Japanese Ministry of Defense, an indication that such possibility is becoming reachable.

It should be of important note that Pres. Aquino is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next week, and among those expected to be discussed is the framework on the transfer of defense equipment and technology to the Philippines.

The JMSDF is the second largest operator of the P-3C Orion. Theirs were built under license locally by Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The P-3C in the JMSDF are scheduled to be slowly replaced by the new Kawasaki P-1.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

MaxDefense sources also indicated a short term request for around 2 to 4 P-3C Orions are among those included in documents provided by the DND to Japan's Ministry of Defense of possible arms for transfer or sale to the Philippine government. But sourcing from Japan might not bear immediate fruit, due to the timing of replacing their fleet by the new home-grown Kawasaki P-1 which will not be made in a fast pace, and due to political reasons related to their recent shift of policy in defense and security. But Japanese sourced P-3C can be a very good option in the long run, as more units can be made available to the PAF, either as spares source or as additional aircraft to meet its longer term goal of having at least 6 long range MPA in the PAF's inventory.

A JMSDF P-3C Orion MPA.
Photo taken from Today's Atsugi blogsite.

The Dark Horse: Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion:
A possible 3rd source of P-3 Orions can be those from Australia, another friendly country with an interest in the stability of the West Philippine Sea. The Royal Australian Air Force has already started reducing the Orion fleet and replacing it in the next few years. Their aircraft, called the AP-3C, is an upgraded version made by L-3 Communications with new mission systems, radar, and accoustic systems.

Previous reports indicated that the RAAF have retired at least 2 AP-3C aircraft at the end of 2014, and these might be available for transfer subject to approval by the Australian and US governments. Aside from the 2 retired aircraft, the RAAF is expected to retire another batch of aircraft starting December 2015 until 2016. The RAAF will start receiving their recently ordered Boeing P-8A Poseidon starting 2017, and the AP-3C are expected to be fully retired from RAAF service by 2019.

Should the 2 retired aircraft be made available for the Philippines, it would be possible to have the aircraft by next year, and could be among the fastest options available to the PAF. 

AP-3C Orion MPA of the Royal Australian Air Force.
Photo taken from Air Force Technology website.

PAF and PN Training in Modern MPA Operation:
The Philippine Air Force and Philippine Navy have been ramping up their chances in gaining experience with working on modern MPA from the US Navy, as well as the Royal Australian Air Force. The USN have been flying P-3C and P-8A from Clark Air Base for some time now, and has allowed PAF and PN personnel to go with them at several occassions. Their recent announcement to continue and even increase their sorties on maritime patrol in the WPS and SCS could also provide Philippine personnel some flight time aboard these aircraft. 

Recently, the RAAF also deployed their AP-3C to the Philippines during Balikatan Exercises 2014, and gave PAF and PN officers and men a chance to observe and learn from standard maritime and anti submarine patrols, and see the capabilities of the aircraft.

PAF personnel aboard a RAAF AP-3C Orion as observers during Balikatan Exercises 2014.
Photo taken from the Australian Defence Magazine.

Filipino officers with US Navy aircrew aboard a P-8A Poseidon aircraft during one of its patrols in the West Philippine Sea.
Photo taken from Rappler's website.

With Japan possibly trying to get access to temporarily and rotationally base some of their surveillance aircraft in the Philippines (which definitely includes the P-3C), it is not far fetched that the JMSDF would be giving PAF and PN personnel the training and experience they need in MPA operations, as part of the agreement. This is in addition to those already provided by the US Navy.



MaxDefense's Opinion:
The P-3C, although the platform is aged, is still a capable maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare platform that is at par or even exceed the capabilities of newer models like those offered to the Philippine Air Force last year. Being the standard MPA of many of the country's security and strategic partners, having them in the short and medium term goals (2015-2022) could be beneficial to meet the immediate requirements sought after by the AFP and the Philippine government as a whole. They are also the fastest possible option right now to fill-up the gaps in the capability of the Philippine military.

Being at par with modern standards, the P-3C is also a suitable bridge to build up the knowledge, experience, and capability of the Philippines and catch-up with the rest of the world, while preparing for more capable platforms in the future.

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The DND and AFP must not only look at the short and medium term goals. Ultimately, the P-3C will need a replacement by a newer and more capable model in the long term (starting 2022 and beyond), and while the P-3s are expected to serve for at least 15 more years with the PAF (as stipulated by the law), the Philippine government should not be complacent again as it did in the past when it forego a chance to replace the Fokker F-27MPA and lose the knowledge and capabilities the PAF once had.

MaxDefense would be closely monitoring the upcoming meeting between Pres. Aquino and PM Abe next week, as it might have some positive implications for this acquisition project.






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UPDATES:
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June 8, 2015:
With the visit of Pres. Aquino to Japan resulting to agreements that will help pave the way for Japan to transfer defense equipment to the Philippines, among those being touted as requested by the Philippines DND are for anti-submarine surveillance aircraft. Although unnamed, it would definitely imply to the P-3C Orion built by Kawasaki, wherein Japan has been retiring a number for quite some time now. Some press reports sourced from Japanese media also directly indicated the P-3C as offered by Japan. The reports also indicated that radar systems were also among those considered for transfer, although not much information was provided on what type.

According to MaxDefense sources, the Philippines and Japan are working for the transfer, either by grant (assistance) or heavily discounted sale, of somewhere between 2 to 4 P-3C aircraft, depending on the finalized discussions that are expected to proceed within the year. The aircraft could be sourced from earlier retired units stored in Japan, and/or from existing fleet aircraft that are scheduled to be retired either late this year or by next year through hot transfer. But be wary of erroneous posts being circulated online by some so-called defense groups that confirms the transfer of 4 P-3C from Japan. Be aware that all these are still being discussed and there is no finalized agreement yet on the proposed transfers. Until a final agreement is reached, everything discussed here can only be considered as plans and proposals.

There are worries that the US might restrict or block the transfer of the aircraft, or certain important parts or systems of the aircraft, but MaxDefense sources from the DND confirmed that the US government and Department of Defense are not expected to restirct or block the aircraft's transfer from Japan to the Philippines. In fact, the US government is also looking at providing US-built P-3C through Foreign Military Sales or Foreign Military Assistance aside from those offered by Japan. More worries are actually on the ability of the Philippine Air Force to absorb the P-3C, as the PAF (and Philippine Navy too) will need some time to train and master the operation and maintenance of the aircraft, which might be too advanced for the PAF and PN to immediately be proficient in.

Aside from P-3C, the DND is said to have included in their papers submitted to the Japanese MoD of what else could be transfered to the Philippines, which may include HADR capable equipment, which includes transport aircraft like JASDF C-130H Hercules, and JGSDF UH-1H and UH-1J Huey helicopters.


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June 25, 2015:
The Department of National Defense (DND) finally confirmed their intention to acquire used Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Japan. These was made by the DND's spokesperson, Dr. Peter Paul Galvez, on June 25, 2015. He said that those being considered are from the excess defense article sources of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), the operator of the P-3C in the Japan SDF.

Another news report came out within the day, sourced from an anonymous DND official, saying that the DND was interested to acquire around 4 to 6 units of ex-JMSDF P-3C Orions, a number that is far greater than what was earlier confirmed by MaxDefense sources of around 2 to 4 units. But the report's source was negative on the possible inclusion of US-made surveillance systems, particularly the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) suite which is the most important system of the aircraft, due to possible US government rejection of such transfer to the Philippine armed forces. It's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to be only capable of surface warfare and surveillance which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability.  

MaxDefense believes that this would be a test to the Philippines' close relations with the United States, and to the meaning of being a Major Non-NATO Ally. The ASW suite is the cornerstone of the P-3C's capability, and it's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to only be capable of surface warfare and surveillance, which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability. This would not enable the Philippines to use the aircraft to detect submarines entering its territorial, archipelagic, and EEZ waters. The only solution aside from pushing the US to allow the ASW suite's transfer is to acquire them from Japanese or other sources. This is possible, but this would definitely cost the Philippine government, and would delay the deployment of the aircraft despite the urgency because of the threat from China.

The ASW system's absence could also mean that the US does not entrust the Philippines with such capability. Considering that the P-3C is not the US military's premier maritime patrol aircraft anymore with the introduction of the newer and more capable Boeing P-8A Poseidon, this could definitely be damaging to the relationship between the allies, and could be used by those left-wing opposition groups who are against the AFP Modernization, the VFA & EDCA with the US to support their reasons to reject these agreements and push their own unhelpful cause.

Aside from pursuing the acquisition of P-3C Orions, the DND also confirmed that the Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) project for the Philippine Air Force is still a go, although the bidding could not proceed because it was among those pending due to Malacanang's decision not to abruptly sign the Revised AFP Modernization Act for reasons still not confirmed by both the DND and the Office of the President. This project is said to run astride with the P-3C Orion acquisition, alhough the concept of operating two types of MPA aircraft is still questionable.

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The Advantages of using Subic for the Philippine Navy and Air Force

It was reported lately that the Philippine Air Force (PAF) and Philippine Navy (PN) will be making Subic Bay the location of their new bases in the coming years. This has been expected by many since the heightened tensions between the Philippines and its neighbors regarding the West Philippine Sea. But there are also other reasons why the transfer to Subic is close to possible more than ever. This includes the increase of PAF and PN assets and capabilities, other military bases that may undergo modernization and repair works, and Clark International Airport (CIA) becoming busier than ever. MaxDefense believes that this is a strategic move by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), although there is also a civilian face on the transfer.

Naval Air Station Cubi Point, now known as Subic International Airport.
Photo taken from airliners.net.

MaxDefense will discuss some of the reasons why it would be an advantage for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to consider opening bases for the PAF and PN in Subic Bay.


Subic to Decongest NAIA and Improve CIA

On the civilian side, the transfer of PAF to Subic International Airport (SIA) is actually part of an overhaul of the aviation industry and standards of the Philippines, which is actually a give and take situation between civil and military aviation groups.

Access to Manila's premier aviation gateway, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) has been tight for a few years now as it has already exceeded the designed capacity to accommodate flights and passengers. One of the solutions made by the Philippine government is to transfer all flights for all light aircraft traffic (including private and corporate planes, aviation schools, and morning fish deliveries) to another airport, which was eventually known as the Philippine Air Force's Danilo Atienza Airbase in Sangley Point, Cavite City, currently the home of PAF's 15th Strike Wing (15th SW). Transferring private and light commercial flights to Sangley Point means the 15th SW will need to let go of the base, and this is where Lumbia Airport in Cagayan de Oro City will come in.

Danilo Atienza Airbase in Sangley Point, Cavite City. CAAP will be taking over the airbase by 2014.
Photo taken from panoramio.com.

Sidenote:

Lumbia Airport was previously the main airport servicing Cagayan de Oro City in Mindanao. It also serves as a minor airbase for the PAF, where there are normally PAF assets like UH-1H Huey combat utility helicopters stationed. But with the opening of the larger and more modern Laguindingan International Airport, all civil flights are now diverted to the new airport. The Philippine government then allocated the old Lumbia Airport for exclusive use of the PAF, which will now become a full airbase and will accomodate the soon to be homeless 15th SW. So expect the OV-10s and MD-520MGs to be based in Mindanao, which is actually the natural habitat of these attack aircraft for since their induction to the PAF in the early 1990s.

PAF OV-10s forward deployed at Lumbia Airport.
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

Now the 15th SW has a secure home in the future, the Danilo Atienza Airbase is good for transfer to the civil aviation soon. According to some reports, the 15th SW may completely leave Cavite as early as 2014 if the transfer goes well, and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) may open the airbase to civilian traffic almost immediately as well.

The highly publicized Air Force City hangar at Clark Air Base, Pampanga.

Another solution for the NAIA problem is to increase the capacity of the Clark International Airport (formerly known as Diosdado Macapagal International Airport), including the expansion of civilian activities to the premises of PAF's Air Force City base on the said airport. Currently Air Force City is the home of the 1st Air Division, the Air Logistics Command and the 710th Special Operations Wing, and is also an extension airbase by the Air Defense Wing's assets originally based in Basa Air Base in nearby Floridablanca, Pampanga. Taking out Air Force City means looking for a new home for these units, and the closest possible bases for transfer is either at Air Defense Wing's Basa Air Base or Subic International Airport. And between the two, SIA is the better choice due to its wider area and more room for improvement. 

Subic International Airport, proposed to be a new air base for the Philippine Air Force.
Photo taken from traveltothephilippines.info.

Subic as a Deep Water Naval Base and Replacement to the old Cavite Naval Base

As early as the 19th century the Spaniards found Subic Bay's strategic location, deep water and sheltered anchorages suitable for a fine naval base. The Americans confirmed this by choosing it as their largest overseas naval base during the Cold War until its closure in 1992. With the PN acquiring bigger vessels than what they had in their inventory before and the possible take-over of the Cavite Naval Base (CNB) together with nearby Danilo Atienza Air Base to the CAAP, the PN is in a situation where it needs to find a new base to replace CNB in the near future.

Cavite Naval Base circa 2010. The naval base will also be affected by the taking over of nearby Danilo Atienza Airbase for future airport development works. Also the base has no more space for further development.
Photo taken from Flickr copyright to Mr. Karlo Panahon.

Subic Freeport is also home to several shipbuilding and repair facilities, oil depots, and has been the home of the BRP Gregorio del Pilar since it was acquired in 2011. More large ships are expected to arrive and will need a new home as CNB is currently cramped, old, and does not have the facilities to handle such ships. It is a natural choice for the PN to choose Subic Bay as its new home, with more room for further development in the near future. Subic still has some of the US Navy's previous facilities that can be of good use to the Philippine military, like ammunition depots, shelters, warehouses, access roads and other American-made infrastructure.


Subic's Distance in relation with Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) and West Philippine Sea

Of all PAF airbases, Basa Airbase is the closest to the contested Panatag Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. But Subic Airport beats Basa Airbase in closing the distance by a mere 20 something kilometers. Although 20+ kilometers seems small, according to AFP documents released by recent news reports it would cut the reaction time of responding fighter planes by at least 3 minutes, which is very important in terms of air defense response times. It would also shorten the distance between the shoal and the fighter's home base and maximizing the short legs of the incoming KAI FA-50 Golden Eagle fighter trainers of the PAF, as well as incoming maritime patrol aircraft.

This map shows the location of Subic Bay in relation to Bajo de Masinloc aka Panatag Shoal. Take note of the close distance between them. During the time of the US Bases, American and Filipino air units used the shoal as a bombing range due to its closeness to the US bases.
Map taken from scubatechphilippines.com by E.M. Esber.

Subic Bay is also closer to Panatag Shoal than from Cavite Naval Base. This will also shorten the time for ships to reach the area, considering that ships travel slower than aircraft and the travel time can be shortened by several hours. Overall, Subic is the best location for the PAF and PN to be closer to the potential conflict areas and West Philippine Sea theatre of operations.


Subic and Olongapo City are Military-Friendly Locations

Of all the cities in the Philippines, Olongapo City just outside Subic Freeport is considered as one of the most military-friendly, together with Angeles City near Clark. The city's history is long connected to American and foreign military presence, and the people are very supportive of the move to have military bases in Subic. This is an added advantage considering that many cities in the Philippines are not symphatetic on having military bases in their area due to fear of being legitimate military targets of OPFOR, avoidance of associating with the military, and avoidance of presence of foreign troops.

Olongapo City residents watching a US Air Force band during a performance at SM City Olongapo.
Photo taken from subicbaynews.com

Subic as a Joint Base for Philippine and Friendly Forces

The issue regarding the temporary basing of US forces as well as military units from friendly countries like Japan is getting close to reality, and it was earlier revealed that Subic will be the best place to station these visiting foreign forces. Subic can accommodate the largest naval and transport ships, submarines and aircraft carriers, at the same time the nearby airport can accommodate military fighter and transport aircraft as well. The area can also be developed to accommodate the planned temporary housing for military and disaster relief equipment of the US and other friendly countries for forward deployment. This is very advantageous to the country since these forward-deployed items like construction vehicles, tents, relief goods, etc. can also be used by our government if disasters struck  (the Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world). 

If the Philippine government approves, we may see Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) ships coming in and out of Subic Bay in the near future.
Photo taken from US Navy.

Since Subic is not too close to the civilian population it is also an ideal base to safeguard joint forces from close contact with the populace, and from preying eyes of the public (and foreign spies as well). The openness and experience of the local population and businesses to foreign and local military forces is another advantage. Olongapo City officials earlier said that having foreign military access to Subic will boost their tourism and business potential and increase income.


Joint Bases in Subic makes Defending it Easier

Having both a naval and air base in Subic makes it easier for the military to defend both at the same time. The AFP can deploy future anti-aircraft gun and missile defenses in the area to defend both the combined bases, the industrial freeport zone (with its oil depots, supply stores and repair facilities) and the city of Olongapo all together without having to deploy separate units for each location. This maximizes the deployment of limited number of defense systems by only having a few but cohesive unit to do the job, thus giving the military enough numbers to deploy elsewhere. If foreign forces are also in the area, it is not impossible that these forces (especially the US) will also provide additional defense systems to strengthen those deployed by the Philippine military.

The AFP could place its future air defense assets in Subic and could defend the joint base, the freeport and Olongapo City at the same time. It is expected that the AFP will get air defense missiles like the Spydeer ADS in the future (discussed in a previous blog).
Photo taken from Rafael website.

MaxDefense believes that the planned transfer of naval and air force units of the Philippines to Subic is a good strategic decision and would be beneficial in the overall defense posture of the country, as well as in helping the civil aviation sector. It is still the best location so far for the military, and would be a cheaper alternative than building new military bases. The DND should provide protected facilities in the new base for oil and ammunition supply, hardened aircraft shelters, and other military requirements.

To further maximize this efforts, the AFP and DND should also start modernization and upgrading its current air force and naval bases. Basa Airbase should be modernized, as well as the Fernando Airbase in Batangas. With the impending transfer of the PAF to Lumbia Airport, the DND must also start upgrading the facility to military standards. The PN should also do the same, and it is a welcome news that they would be upgrading their facilities in Rafael Ramos Naval Base in Cebu.

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Japan Joins US Dawn Blitz 2013 Amphibious Exercises - What's in it for the Philippines?

On the 31st of May 2013, a Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) group of about 1,000 servicemen, 3 warships and several combat helicopters arrived in California in preparation to its participation on a large amphibious operation exercise called "DAWN BLITZ 2013", which will be held from June 11 to 28. Together with Japan will be forces from the US Navy and Marine Corps, Canada and New Zealand. The exercise involves amphibious assault exercises on the San Clemente Island off Los Angeles in California, and according to US Navy, involves "fictional countries and virtual opposing forces with no basis on any current geopolitical situation".

The JMSDF amphibious assault ship JDS Shimokita underway at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam.
Photo taken from US Navy website.

Dawn Blitz 2013 is part of a series of amphibious training exercises which provide realistic and relevant training for the US Marine Corps and its foreign participants. Japan's contingent include the flat-deck landing ship JDS Shimokita (LST-4002), the Aegis missile destroyer JDS Atago (DDG-177) and the helicopter destroyer cum helicopter carrier JDS Hyuga (DDH-181). Also scheduled in the exercises is the landing for the first time in a Japanese warship of the MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, planning and execution of amphibious landing operations, live fire exercises, and exercises on logistics and command, control and communications.

The JDS Atago, an AEGIS missile destroyer of the JMSDF.
Photo taken from Royal Canadian Navy website.

Although it seems to be just another military exercise, this is actually an unprecedented move by Japan and its main ally the United States. It is the first time that Japan will send a large contingent to the US, and the first time that Japan will be involved in a large scale amphibious assault exercise since the formation of the Japanese Self Defense Forces in the 1950s. The fleet sent by the JMSDF alone includes their largest of most powerful ships, as the JDS Hyuga is actually one of their 2 helicopter carriers intentionally understated by the Japanese as a helicopter destroyer.

The helicopter destroyer / carrier JDS Hyuga of the JMSDF.

Although officially not directed at a specific country, the exercises is timely with the ongoing tensions between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands and possibly the Okinawa archipelago. China earlier made statements of claims to the Senkakus and contesting the sovereignty of Japan over Okinawa, both of which Japan considers as an integral part of its territory. 

The exercises is a testament that the Americans will be backing-up the Japanese on this issue, and this also enforces their own announcement of shifting its sights more to the Asia-Pacific region. It also shows that Japan is serious on dealing with the security threats it faces, and that it is willing to accept a bigger responsibility in Asia's security stability by letting go of the policies it implements since their loss in World War 2 and American occupation in 1945.

The Senkaku Islands, shown with the overlapping EEZs of China, Japan and Taiwan.
Photo taken from defensenews.com

So what's in it for the Philippines?

Actually nothing much on the outside. There might be trickles of benefits from a stronger and more capable Japan like assistance or political support, but nothing really major. But if the Philippine government dig deeper into what the Japanese are up to, the gem is actually on the inside.

Like Japan, the Philippines is a major US treaty ally, and have a common threat which is China. Both countries are locked against China on control of contested islands, and both are tied up to limitations to maximize its defense capabilities on one way or another. But that's were the similarities ends, because after that, both have different ways to meet their ineffectiveness.

A Japan Coast Guard (JCG) and China Maritime Surveillance (MSA) large patrol vessels matching-up on each other. This is a normal scene nowadays around the Senkaku Islands, with the usual participation of Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration (CGA) ships.

Unlike Japan, who makes strides to increase defense spending and capabilities despite hard times on the economic front, who plans and painfully but is ready and willing to amend its "peace" constitution to keep up with the present security threats and give its armed forces the teeth it needs to meet its defense requirements, and stride hard to keep its territories intact and its people united; the Philippines is not making such hard choices.

Mischief Reef in 1995, 2005 and 2012 for comparison. Note the changes.
Photo taken from Korea News Online.

The Philippines already lost possession of the Mischief Reef (Panganiban Reef) to China in 1994, and lost control of Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal) in 2012, again to China. For 2013, Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) is being threatened of being taken over by China. Taiwan also started its posturing in the north, trying to take a huge slice on the Philippines' EEZ and fishing rights.

Is it already too late to do make the changes on how the government prioritizes the defense of the Philippines, improving its foreign relations and foreign policy, strengthening and modernizing the armed forces, and increasing its ties with its allies? MaxDefense believes it is too late. But being late is always better than doing nothing at all.

Is the Philippines willing to make painful but worthwhile changes to face the threats around her? MaxDefense leaves this question to ponder.

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