A Brief on the Horizon 3 Phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program

The year 2023 is the start of implementation the next phase of the Horizon series of military modernization procurement programming of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, which will run for five years until 2027.

So how is the Horizon 3 phase going so far as we reach the 9th month since the program started. What are the updates, challenges and issues that it faces to make it implementable? 

As we restart our blog entries, we will first focus on what will be the basis of the Philippines' defense program in the next 5 years.

The JAS-39 Gripen which was selected foe the PAF's MRF requirements and is now being neogitated with Sweden. Photo credits to original source.

The Horizon 3 Phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program

The Horizon 3 phase, the biggest and final phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program's 5-year Horizon series, is expected to bring the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to a level capable of providing a minimum credible territorial defense posture. 

The phase will also allow the AFP to have almost all the basic necessities and capabilities that it needs, and will provide the foundation for it to grow to an even more capable force in the future.  

By the end of the Horizon 3 phase, the AFP should have already caught up and gained the knowledge base, experience base, capability base, materiel and doctrine of a modern fighting force equal or greater than its contemporaries in the region, despite the minimum size of formation and equipment that it possesses.

Future procurement programs after Horizon 3 will be meant to reinforce the basics, expand the quantity of its assets and units, gradually keep up with the future technology and capabilities it many need.

Unsurprisingly, the Horizon 3 phase will be sub-divided into several phases jist like the Horizon 1 and 2 phases. In this case there will be 3 phases, all of which were submitted for approval to Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. By then AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Andres Centino and DND OIC Senior Usec. Carlito Galvez.

Due to the numerous requirements being sought by the AFP and the funding challenges that it already knew would be expected, the AFP created its shopping list according to prioritization.

The one described by the DND last April 2023 appears to be the Phase 1 (aka Priority Phase) which was said to be worth Php500 billion.

An example of an MLRS system, the Elbit PULS from Israel. Photo credits to Elbit Systems.

First Phase / Priority Phase:

The Phase 1, also known as the "Priority Phase", is obviously meant to give priority to the most sought-after capabilities of the AFP, which can be considered as the core capabilities that it wanted to have regardless if the Philippine Government can fund the entire Horizon 3 program or not.

Due to the secret nature of the shopping list, it is difficult to confirm if our current information is the the current information. Thus, we cannot divulge the actual breakdown and can only speculate based on the information that we have.

What is sure is that the Priority Phase shopping list is designed to provide the AFP with capabilities that will support its Archipelagic and Littoral Defense Strategy which is centered on enhancing the AFP's capability to detect and identify threats, provide minimum defense to the Philippine mainland, the Kalayaan Island Group and its littoral environment including its Exclusive Economic Zone.

This means emphasis on Anti-Access / Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities that focuses on firepower delivery within 200 nautical miles, as well as surveillance and targeting capabilities to support such capability.

This will include the following capabilities:

* Further improvement of the Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Information/Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (C4ISTAR) capabilities of the AFP General Headquarters and all three service branches;

* Air Defense and Air Surveillance Radar Systems for the Philippine Air Force;

* Land/Shore-Launched Anti-Ship Missile Systems for the Philippine Army and Philippine Marine Corps;

* Land/Shore based Rocket and Missile Artillery Systems for the Philippine Army and Philippine Marine Corps;

* Combat Aircraft for air identification, air defense and anti-shipping operations for the Philippine Air Force;

* Offshore and Littoral naval assets for the Philippine Navy;

Additional frigates are expected to be procured by the Philippine Navy. Photo credits to HHI.

* Ground-Based Air Defense Systems for the Philippine Air Force, Philippine Army, and Philippine Marine Corps;

* Improvement and upgrade of current capabilities for all the 3 service branches

* Carry-over projects from the Horizon 2 Priority Phase and 2nd List of Horizon 2 phase that were not implemented as of 2023.

The Rafael SPYDER Philippines Air Defense System (SPADS) of the Philippine Air Force. More are expected to be acquired. Photo credits to AFP.

Based on the previous discussions we already had in our social media pages and with our extension Philippine Defense Resource, we can assume that the following are to be expected:

Additional air defense radars, either from Japan, Israel or the United States; additional Brahmos anti-ship coastal defense missile batteries, multiple-launch rocket systems like the Elbit PULS, Hanwha K239 Chunmoo and M142 HIMARS; fighter aircraft like the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen or F-16 Viper; additional frigates and fast attack interdiction crafts; addition Rafael SPADS and introduction of shorter-ranged surface-to-air missile systems; and upgrades for the Jose Rizal-class frigates, Tarlac-class LPDs, the upcoming HDC-3100 corvettes, the FA-50PH Fighting Eagle light combat aircraft, and others.

The Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen, which are just needing MoU ratification to proceed the procurement. Photo credits to VanderWolf Images

Second Phase:

Except for the undersea warfare capability, this phase will mostly involved increasing the quantity of what the AFP already has from the previous Horizons 1 and 2, and Horizon 3 Priority Phase.

This is to complete previous acquisitions that were made in smaller numbers due to funding issues, and will allow the AFP to reach the optimal capability level that was not reached during earlier procurements. These include the folllwing capabilities:

* Submarines and development of the Submarine Force for the Philippine Navy;

* Aircraft-based air surveillance capabilities for the Philippine Air Force;

* Additional Maritime Patrol Aircraft for the Philippine Air Force and/or Philippine Navy;

* Additional Ground Based Air Defense Missile Systems, Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Systems for the three service branches;

* Additional combat fixed and rotary-wing aircraft for air defense, close air support and light strike aircraft for the Philippine Air Force;

* Additional air and sea transport assets for the Philippine Air Force and Philippine Navy;

* Additional amphibious assault capabilities for the Philippine Marine Corps

We can easily assume that the means the acquisition of submarines, additional fighter aircraft, A-29B Super Tucano light attack aircraft, T129B ATAK attack helicopters, ATR-72-600MPA maritime patrol aircraft, SPYDER air defense systems and Brahmos anti-ship coastal defense batteries, C-130H/J, C-295W, NC-212i transport aircraft, S-70i Black Hawk and Subaru Bell 412EPX combat utility helicopters, landing and amphibious assault ships and crafts, and KAAV-7A1 amphibious assault vehicles.

Among those possibly eyed for the Phase 2 of Horizon 3 are the acquisition of Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft (top) and Submarines (above). Photos for reference only.

The implementation of this phase will depend again on the performance of the Philippine economy as well as the political will of the Marcos Administration to push forward its defense goals as soon as it can.


Third Phase:

This phase appears to be more of a "just trying our luck" phase although MaxDefense Philippines believes that it is achievable to reach as long as there is seriousness in the Philippine Government to invest in the country's defense.

It is a further continuation of Phase 2 acquisition plans, again with emphasis on A2/AD capabilities to push back movement of enemy forces away from the Philippine 200nmi Exclusive Economic Zone and territorial water/airspace.

Focus will be more on the following:

* Ground Based Air Defense Systems

* Land/Shore Based Anti-Ship Missile Systems

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To summarize, the proposed Horizon 3 Phases 1 to 3 will be worth more than a Trillion Pesos, which is very far higher than the Horizon 1 Phase at around Php130 billion, and Horizon 2 at Php430 billion.

Our concern is on the ability of the Philippine Government to fund this considering the slowing economy, continued disinterest of foreign investors in the Philippines, focus on infrastructure development, and presence of pro-China lawmakers and government officials that block the ability to increase funding for the AFP Modernization Program.

There is growing interest on the HIMARS system and could be among those fornacquisition under Horizon 3 phase. 

MaxDefense Philippines' Opinion:

Based on what is in the submitted shopping list, we believe that it was not properly given much attention, time and effort to really determine what the AFP needs to improve its defense capabilities in the face of current and future thrrats that it may face.

The capabilities brought forward are correct, but it appears that the balance is notpresent on what are given priority.

The strategy that these proposed weapon systems will be providing appears to be too passive. These can only react and become useful once a shooting war starts. And while they can be a good deterence during peacetime, these assets are not really useful to conduct other missions during peacetime or to address China's salami-slicing strategy of slowly moving forward without firing a shot.

How about during peacetime? Land-based missile systems cannot conduct air and sea patrol, cannot conduct intelligence gathering and surveillance, cannot show the flag in our areas of interest and territories, cannot conduct search and rescue or  HADR roles or support HADR operations, and cannot be used during exercises overseas or beyond their delopyment area.

How about threats beyond our EEZ but within our country's national interests? What about those in the interest of the regional and international community as part of the Philippines' role in peace and security?

The Horizon 3 shopping list also indicates that the AFP may not have consulted its allies and strategic security partners which  is an essential factor considering our country's security strategy is anchored on having US forces onboard during a shooting war, and having US and other partners around when when deterring potential enemies during peacetime.

The Brahmos Cshore based anti-ship missile system, which the Philippines is acquiring. More are planned in the future. Photo cresits to Economic Times India.

Are the capabilities being acquired in sync with what our allies and partners can and/or cannot provide as part of military assistance packages and to the defense strategies to be employed? Will there be too much redundancy between Philippine and US forces' capabilities that a huge gap on other needed capabilities twould hapoen? Would it be better to have a balance to address these gaps as well?

Balance is key to the planning of assets. While A2/AD is important, too much emphasis on it will place other capabilities in jeopardy.

"Back to the Drawing Board"

As of this writing, we were informed by defense and military sources that the In-Principle Approval of the Horizon 3 Phase 1 procurement list has not yet been approved as it is still being reviewed by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) before Pres. Marcos will give his final approval.

Defense Sec. Gilbert Teodoro Jr. also confirmed as of 12 September 2023 that he already told AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. to review the Horizon 3 procurement program to make sure it addresses the current and future defense requirements of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and is well coordinated with discussions with allies and security partners.

His recent statement during the Senate hearing on the 2024 Defense Budget confirmed his disappointment on the Horizon 3 shopping list, and gave hints of what he believe should be done.

Paraphrasing what he said: "If we only buy 12 fighter aircraft, what's the point? We should be buying a minimum of 30 to 40 fighters. Other countries procure fighter aircraft in bulk: 70, 80, 90 fighters."

In the meantime, we believe the Philippine Government can focus on addressing the funding backlog for projects from the Horizon 1 and Horizon 2 phases that are not yet funded and are already delayed in implementation. As of the DND's 2022 reports, less than Php150 billion have been funded out of the more than Php400 billion required for Horizon 2 phase, with many delayed projects proposed to be included in the 1st Phase of Horizon 3.

There are already signs that despite the Horizon 3 phase's procuirement plans not being approved yet,  the balances from Horizon 2 are moving forward slowly espeically that Defense Sec. Gilbert Teodoro Jr.'s appointment has been confirmed by the Commission on Appointments on 13 September 2023 

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First edit and release: 14 September 2023
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines

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Philippine Air Force selects its future advance trainer aircraft to replace SIAI Marchetti S.211 jet trainers

 
Back in October 2014, MaxDefense Philippines wrote a blog entry asking if it was already time for the Philippine Air Force (PAF) to replace its dear SIAI Marchetti AS.211 Warrior advanced jet trainers.

"Is it Time to Replace the Philippine Air Force's S-211 Aircraft?" - first posted on 07 October 2014.

That time, the AS.211 Warrior was not just the most capable trainer in the PAF, but was also the most capable combat aircraft in the entire PAF fleet, due to the absence of proper multi-role fighters or light combat aircraft, or even a modern close air support aircraft. The PAF's current fleet of FA-50PH Fighting Eagle supersonic light combat aircraft and the A-29B Super Tucano light attack aircraft were not yet available to the PAF in 2014.

Normally when we write something, we are actually providing clues on what's already being prepared. In 2014, we already received information that the PAF may include the need for new intermediate-advanced trainer aircraft to replace the AS.211 Warrior by the mid 2020s, with the new aircraft to be acquired either as part of the 2nd List of Horizon 1 phase, or with the Horizon 2 phase.

Even before 2014, studies were already started by the PAF on what its future training curriculum and phases would be, and what kind of training equipment are needed, including aircraft, flight simulators, and others. 

And with the AS.211 Warrior fleet reaching 30 years of service by the early 2020s, it was found that it would probably best to start replacing the AS.211 Warrior trainer jets with a newer, more modern, more efficient, more dependable, more forgiving, and more advanced trainer aircraft.

Now, that time has come, as the Philippine Air Force starts the acquisition of a new trainer aircraft, and selecting its choice for procurement.

A KT-1 Woongbi operated by the Republic of Korea Air Force. Photo credits to Wikipedia.

The Trainer Aircraft Acquisition Project of the PAF:

The Philippine Air Force is in the market for new trainer aircraft which would be used for intermediate-advance pilot training.

Th new aircraft would be replacing the SIAI Marchetti AS.211 jet trainer, which has been in use with the PAF since the early 1990s. The type is already entering 30 years of service with the PAF in the next couple of years, although it is believed that the PAF would keep the AS.211 flying together with the new trainer for jet proficiency training and for low-intensity combat and surveillance roles.

One of the PAF's AS.211 Warrior jet trainer aircraft.

The aircraft would be slotted between the SF-260F basic trainer, and the FA-50PH Fighting Eagle light combat aircraft which also doubles as  lead-in fighter trainer (LIFT) for future fighter pilots.

12 units are planned for procurement with an Approved Budget for Contract (ABC) worth Php4.2 billion. It is planned to be procured through Multi-Year Contractual Authority (MYCA), and could be a Government-to-Government (G2G) transaction with the winning manufacturer's country of origin.

MaxDefense PH is still confirming if these new aircraft would be assigned with the 5th Fighter Wing's 105th Fighter Training Squadron at Basa Air Base in Pampanga, or with the Air Education and Training Command in Fernando Air Base in Batangas. Since it is expected to replace the AS.211, it is possible that it would be with the 5th Fighter Wing.

The AS.211 is employed as a light attack aircraft and patrol aircraft, and is capable of using assorted munitions including AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile and Paveway II laser guided bombs (both not shown), free fall bombs, and rocket pods. Photo credits to Peter Ho.

Aircraft Models for Consideration:

According to MaxDefense Philippines air force and defense industry sources, the PAF Technical Working Group (TWG) for the Trainer Acquisition Project were looking at several options, which include the following aircraft models:

1. Embraer A-29B Super Tucano - the PAF already operates the A-29B in the light attack and close air support role with the PAF's 15th Strike Wing, and is a practical choice for commonality. But it was said to be too capable for the trainer role, and all the added capability also increases the overall price of the aircraft.

A-29B Super Tucano of the Philippine Air Force. Photo credits to AFP Public Information Office.

2. Beechcraft Textron T-6C Texan II - currently one of the most widely used basic-advance trainer aircraft in the world, with the US military itself using it for their training requirements. The AT-6 Wolverine lost to the A-29B Super Tucano for the PAF's Close Air Support Aircraft program, although it is still pushing the T-6C for trainer requirements due to issues on the A-29B as trainer aircraft as mentioned above. Thailand ordered the trainer and light attack variants of the T-6.

The AT-6 Wolverine light attack and T-6C Texan II trainer aircraft. Photo credits to original source.

2, KAI KT-1 Woongbi - South Korea has been very active in marketing their defense products to the Philippines, and the KT-1 has been one of the first products they started marketing as early as the early 2000s. And with the sale of the FA-50PH Fighting Eagle years ago, KAI has established a foothold in the Philippine Air Force and DND. Within the ASEAN region, Indonesia is currently using the KT-1B.

The KT-1T, operated by the Turkish Air Force. Photo credits to original source.

4. Aero Vodochody L-39NG - one of the jet trainer aircraft offered to the PAF, the L-39NG is the latest version of the successful L-39 Albatross family of advanced jet trainer aircraft. The L-39NG makes use of the latest avionics systems and uses the American-made Williams International FJ44 turbofan engine. Vietnam ordered 12 units, which will start delivery by 2023.

The L-39NG jet trainer aircraft. Photo credits to Armada International.

5. Pilatus PC-21 - this is the latest trainer aircraft from Switzerland's Pilatus Aircraft, known for the  successful PC-7 and PC-9 advanced trainers. The PC-21 is said to be the most advanced in the selections despite using a turboprop engine. But it is also one of the more expensive options, which could be am issue for the a stingy market like the Philippines. Currently, Singapore uses the PC-21 for advanced flight training.

Two PC-21 trainer aircraft of the Swiss Air Force. Photo credits to Swiss Air Force.

6. Leonardo Aermacchi M-345 High Efficiency Trainer (HET) - part of Leonardo's family of trainer aircraft, the M-345HET is a latest variant of the original SIAI Marchetti S.211 jet trainer already in service with the PAF. It uses a similar but improved airframe but with everything else updated to the latest technology include glass cockpit, more powerful but efficient turbofan engines, among others. No regional air force uses the type although the Italian Air Force is a major user.

The Aermacchi M-345 HET from Leonardo. Photo credits to Leonardo.

 
PAF Selects its Next Trainer Aircraft:

In 2020, MaxDefense Philippines started liaising with PAF sources on what they are looking for as their next trainer aircraft. 

Apparently, groups within the service are divided if they would prefer a jet-powered aircraft, or will they return to turboprop-powered aircraft models, considering the AS.211 Warrior is already powered by turbofan jet propulsion. 

So far, only the Aero Vodochody L-39NG and the Leonardo Aermacchi M-345HET were the jet-powered offers, so if the PAF selects a jet-powered trainer, we can definitely find it easier to see what they could have chosen.

But by late 2020, we received confirmation that the PAF TWG prefers a turboprop-powered trainer aircraft, taking out both the L-39NG and M-345HET from the shortlist.

By 2021, we started receiving word from several sources that the PAF TWG has identified its top choice for the project, and has began negotiations with the top selection. And it was identified as KAI's KT-1 Woongbi, with another aircraft model believed to be Beechcraft Textron's T-6C Texan II coming in second.

This has become more apparent when we received confirmation last June 2021 that the TWG's recommendation was already approved and signed by PAF Commanding General Lt. Gen. Allen Paredes, and has already been submitted to the DND, with Defense Sec. Delfin Lorenzana approving the recommendation for submission to Malacanang and the Department of Budget and Management.

As usual, this would be dependent on DBM if funds are available, and with Malacanang for final approval.

The KAI KT-1 Woongbi as seen in KAI's official brochure, which was also posted as part of the PAF Symposium 2021 Virtual Showroom. Photo credits to KAI.

The KT-1 Woongbi trainer aircraft:

The KT-1 Woongbi is a single-engine basic-intermediate trainer aircraft designed jointly the South Korean Agency of Defense Development (ADD) and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI). It is currently built by KAI, and was the first indigenous aircraft developed to meet the requirements of the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF).

The aircraft was said to be loosely based to the Pilatus PC-9 trainer aircraft.

Newer versions of the aircraft can be equipped with glass cockpit configuration, and avionics can be changed and improved depending on requirements, including use of Night Vision Goggles (NVG), heads-up display, multi-function display, hands-on throttle and stick configuration, among others.

It also has an armed version called the KA-1, which can be used for weapon training or light attack requirements. It can be armed with gun and rocket pods, bombs, and missiles, with an option to install Forward Looking Infra-red (FLIR) turrets and laser range finder.

KAI has marketed the KT-1 as part of an integrated training package when paired with the KAI T-50 Golden Eagle advanced/lead-in fighter trainer jet.

The KT-1 was developed from the KTX Program for the ROKAF in 1988, with prototypes built by 1991. It made its maiden flight on November 1991, and was named "Woongbi" in 1995.

The KT-1 started serial production in 2000, with the ROKAF being its first customer with orders made in 1999 for 85 units. The ROKAF received their first aircraft in 2000, with deliveries completed in 2002.

A follow-on order was made by the ROKAF in 2003 for 20 KA-1 armed trainers, which can be armed with gun and rocket pods for use as weapons trainer aircraft.

The Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) became the first export customer of the KT-1 Woongbi, with an initial order for 12 KT-1B aircraft in April 2003 to be paid by barter with 8 Indonesian-made CN-235 transport aircraft. The TNI-AU eventually ordered 17 KT-1B which was used by the service for basic training and for aerobatic display with the Jupiter Aerobatic Team.

Indonesian Air Force KT-1B Woongbi aircraft with the Jupiter Aerobatic Team. Credits to original source of photo.

In 2007, KAI and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) signed a US$553 million deal to supply 55 KT-1T trainers for the Turkish Air Force. The first 5 aircraft would be built at KAI's plant in South Korea, while the remaining 50 aircraft would be locally produced by TAI in their plant near Ankara. Deliveries started in 2010 and completed in 2014.

KT-1 Woongbi of the Turkish Air Force. Photo credits to Savunma ve Havacilik.

In 2012, the Peruvian Air Force ordered 10 KT-1P trainers and 10 KA-1P light attack aircraft as part of a US$208 million. KAI built the first 4 aircraft which were delivered in 2014, while SEMAN locally assembled the rest of the order. SEMAN delivered the first locally assembled KT-1 and KA-1 aircraft to the Peruvian Air Force on April 2015.

A KA-1 Woongbi armed trainer of the Peruvian Air Force. Photo credits to Wikipedia.

Senegal ordered 4 KT-1S in 2016, with all aircraft delivered to the Senegalese Air Force by 2020. They are KAI's first export customer in Africa, where the South Korean government is hopeful to gain success in exporting their defense products

What's Next:

With the selection already made, it is now up to the DND and PAF to complete negotiations with KAI on final pricing, package inclusions, delivery schedule and payment terms.

This would become the basis for the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the project, before a contract can be signed between the DND and KAI.

MaxDefense Philippines believes that a contract could be signed before the end of the year, but that will depend on how fast (or slow) the DND is in processing the procurement of this project.

If a contract is signed and Notice to Proceed (NTP) is released in favor of KAI within the year, the first batch of aircraft could be delivered to the PAF as early as 2023.

Take note that all these estimates are based on the DND proceeding with KAI, and not changing their decisions during the next few months. Should an agreement between the DND and KAI fails to take off, moving to the next possible model and restarting all procurement processes will definitely delay the project by at least a year.

Anyway, MaxDefense Philippines hopes that everything goes well with this project.

Summary:

Trainer Aircraft Acquisition Project

Note: Edited as of 02 July 2021.

* End User: Philippine Air Force (5th Fighter Wing or Air Education Training Command)

* Quantity: 12 aircraft minimum

* Modernization Phase: Horizon 2 Phase of RAFPMP

* Project ABC: Php4,200,000,000.00 (approx. US$86 million)

* Acquisition Mode: Negotiated Procurement (Government-to-Government)

* SARO Release: TBA

* Winning Proponent: TBA, expected to be Korea Aerospace Industries

* Product for Delivery: TBA, expected to be KAI KT-1 or KA-1 Woongbi

* Contract Price: TBA

* Status: PAF TWG selected KAI's KT-1/KA-1 Woongbi, recommendation approved by CGPAF and submitted to DND. MaxDefense PH received confirmation that SND already approved procurement of Trainer Aircraft based on KAI's offer.

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First release: 02 July 2021
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines

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Philippine Air Force makes final push for Multi-Role Fighters with Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen

The Philippine Air Force (PAF) has started to make its final chance to push for the acquisition of new Multi-Role Fighter (MRF) aircraft, as securing funding for modernization projects has reached the final few months.

And based on information MaxDefense PH has gathered from sources from the Philippine Air Force and from the defense industry, the Technical Working Group (TWG0 for the Multi-Role Fighter Acquisition Project has revised its recommendation and go with the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen fighter aircraft from Sweden.

This was approved by Philippine Air Force leadership led by PAF Commanding General Lt. Gen. Allen Paredes, as well as the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) led by AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Cirilito Sobejana.

If information provided to MaxDefense PH are correct, this has been already passed to the Department of National Defense (DND), which now has the ball in securing final approval from Malacanang to secure funding requirements.

The Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen. Photo credits to CZDefence.

From F-16 Viper to JAS-39 Gripen:

2019 - 2020: Selecting the F-16 Block 70 Viper:

MaxDefense PH reported previously that the Philippine Air Force Technical Working Group has selected the Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 70 Viper in 2019, and was already submitted to the Department of National Defense for approval by the National Government.

The PAF was said to stick to the original plan, as negotiations continued with the US Government and Lockheed Martin with the F-16 Viper deal. In the process, the offer made by Lockheed Martin was for 12 new F-16C/D Block 70 Viper fighters, as well as 2 to 4 used F-16D Block 30 or 40 Fighting Falcon fighters hot-transferred from the US Air National Guard.

A CGI of the F-16C Block 70 Viper. Credits to original source of photo.

If the contract was signed and Notice to Proceed (NTP) were released by early 2020, deliveries were said to be made starting 2024 for the F-16 Block 70 Vipers, although hot-transfer of used F-16 Block 30 or 40 Fighting Falcons will be made within 1 to 2 years from release of  NTP, which is somewhere around 2021 or 2022.

Training would be conducted in the mainland United States with US Air Force or US Air National Guard units, while succeeding training would also be conducted in the Philippines as part of regular deployment of US military personnel under the PH-US Visiting Forces Agreement.

The US will also provide an option to the Philippine Air Force for grants of additional F-16C/D Block 30 or 40 Fighting Falcons, although upgrades to Block 70 Viper standards would be paid for by the Philippine government.

Based on information we received back in 2019, the offer made by the US government was to be transacted through US Foreign Military Sales (US FMS) program, and would cost higher than the Php61.2 billion budget proposed by the PAF. Figures MaxDefense PH received back in 2019 was close to US$1.4 billion (Php70 billion), which is almost Php9 billion off the PAF's budget. This excludes munitions.

The Lockheed Martin F-16 Viper (above) was among those showcased re-opening of Basa Air Base and the Balik Basa 2018 reunion. Photos shared by a MaxDefense community member who wish to remain anonymous.

While the PAF selected the US offer for F-16 Vipers, funding has become a problem. The DND was asked to find ways to add more funding to the MRF Acquisition Project on top of the Php61.2 billion approval in-principle back in 2018.

But also by 2nd quarter of, 2020 COVID-19 global pandemic has affected the Philippine government spending and economic output, and the government was pressed to divert funds to pandemic-related expenses. This has not just affected the Multi-Role Fighter Acquisition Project, but several other projects of the Revised AFP Modernization Program that were even in more advanced stages than the Multi-Role Fighter project.

This also made it impossible for the national government to allocate more funding to the MRF Acquisition Project based on the F-16 proposal, and it has become apparent that the project will stall.

One of the flyers from Lockheed Martin marketing the F-16 Block 70 to the Philippines. Photo shared by one of our contributor who was present during one of LM's marketing sessions with the Philippine defense and military officials.

Also, by 3rd quarter of 2020, Lockheed Martin came back with a revised proposal. Since the issuance of contract has been pushed back by a year, their previous pricing and delivery commitments cannot be honored and have to be adjusted. The new proposal from Lockheed Martin for 12 new F-16C/D Block 70 Vipers has went up, and is now closer to US$1.6 billion (Php78 billion) excluding munitions.

Delivery was also pushed back. From 2024 for the 1st batch, it has been moved to 2025 to 2026 if the contract and NTP has been signed and released by early 2021. No changes were made on the hot transfer delivery of used F-16 Fighting Falcons, which still remains at 1 to 2 years from NTP release.

Dilemma:

With these new developments, it has become apparent that the allocated funding for the MRF Acquisition Project is not enough, and is short by almost Php17 billion following Lockheed Martin's latest offer.

The PAF was asked to return to the drawing board if it still wishes to continue with the project, as it has become apparent that getting additional funding would not be possible in the next 2 to 3 years due to poor economic activity of the country, funding issues with the government, and the Visiting Forces Agreement cancellation adding in the list of issues that affect any offer from the US Government.

A few options has been looked at by the DND and PAF. This includes:
1. Revising its selection and re-open negotiations with Saab and see if their previous offer with the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen could hold ground or could even be made better,

2. Looking at diverting funds from the MRF Acquisition Project and instead look at the possibility of acquiring additional FA-50PH Fighting Eagle light combat aircraft from Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) which costs less than half of the MRF Project. This is considering the acquisition of more FA-50 light combat aircraft is actually planned under the Revised AFP Modernization Program's original Horizon 2 proposal before funding was reduced to Php300 billion and PAF needed to revise its program.

As shown on the original Horizon 1-3 program submitted by the DND in 2017, PAF actually requested for 24 Multi-Role Fighters and 12 Fighter/Surface Attack Aircraft/Lead-in Fighter Trainer Aircraft under the Horizon 2 phase. This was reduced to 24 MRFs and 0 F/SAA/LIFTA, until the final Horizon 2 plan was reduced to 12 MRFs and 0 F/SAA/LIFTA. Photo screengrabed from DND document shared to MaxDefense PH.

3. Another option was to move the project to Horizon 3 phase and wait for the next administration to continue this program.

Obviously pushing the project back to Horizon 3 was not an acceptable option, considering the PAF is expected to request to procure more Multi-Role Fighters in that phase, as shown on the table above.  Pushing the Horizon 2 MRF project to Horizon 3 would affect their ability to procure more MRFs and meet their targets by end of Horizon 3.

While acquiring more FA-50PH is among the options, it was not a popular decision among PAF leaders and Air Defense Command leaders and officers. The point of acquiring the FA-50PH back in Horizon 1 phase was to prepare the PAF for MRFs under Horizon 2. Getting more FA-50s without making a significant jump to more capable aircraft does not make sense.

A scale model of the JAS-39C Gripen was displayed in Basa Air Base during the "Balik Basa 2018" reunion. Photo shared by a MaxDefense PH community member.

Best option among the three options is to re-negotiate with Saab, and try to push down Saab's proposed cost to make it acceptable to the national government.

2020-2021: Shift to Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen:

While MaxDefense PH does not have much more details on how negotiations between the PAF/DND and Saab/Swedish government pushed through, an agreement was reached by 2nd quarter of 2021.

According to PAF and industry sources, the PAF TWG for the MRF Acquisition Project has re-submitted its recommendation selecting Saab's offer, and was approved by PAF and the GHQ AFP for submission to the DND.

JAS-39C/D Gripen of the Czech Air Force. Photo credits to Saab.

12 new Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen fighters will be supplied by Saab, plus an addition 2 units would be provided by Saab free of charge. All fighters would be upgraded to the latest MS20 standard with improved combat systems and avionics including the use of the latest PS-05 Mk.4 fire control radar.

Although MaxDefense PH does not have an actual figure to the agreed price, sources confirmed that it is slightly less than the Php61.2 billion budget allocated for the project.

Contrary to what was believed back in 2018, Saab will not include any Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft similar to its deal with Thailand in the past.

Apparently the proposal was already submitted to the Department of National Defense (DND) as of early June 2021, and Defense Sec. Delfin Lorenzana himself was said to be very supportive of the project.

This is currently the most expensive defense project ever to be undertaken by the Philippine Government.

Saab brought in a full-size mock-up of the JAS-39C Gripen during ADAS 2018 defense exhibition in Manila last September 2018. Interesting note on the 2nd photo showing its features. Photos shared by MaxDefense community members who attended the expo.

Potential Problems that Needs Settling Soon:

While the project is believed to be only needing Malacanang approval for the funding to be made available and the contract to be signed, there are still issues that needs to be settled soon.

1. Time Issues:

The administration of Pres. Rodrigo Duterte has almost reached the final 1 year, as he will be ending his 6-year term by 30 June 2022. 

But in terms of approving projects and releasing funds and approving projects, the Duterte administration actually only has a few months to go for projects to become cleared from potentially being classified as "Midnight Deal" projects.

The Multi-Role Fighter Acquisition Project should be able to have its contract signed and NTP (including initial funding) released by 1st quarter of 2022 at latest. That means around 9 months from now.

If not, the DND would be in a better position to postpone and contract signing and funding release until a new administration and DND leadership comes in by July 2022. This is similar to what happened to the Frigate Acquisition Project.

But this means threatening the project's continuity and legacy, as shown also on the Frigate Acquisition Project. While the succeeding administration did not cancel the Frigate project, it was altered to their benefit. And despite contract signing made during the Duterte administration, it does not solidify Duterte's claim that the project is his legacy, especially when the previous administration have made press releases prior to change in leadership that they were halting the contract signing out of respect of the next administration.

2. Need for Philippine - Sweden Defense Cooperation Agreement: 

A mechanism to allow Government-to-Government (G2G) deals between the Philippines and Sweden needs to be settled immediately, before a contract can be signed between the DND and Saab. This could either be a Defense Cooperation Agreement, of Defense Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

Both the Philippine and Swedish governments should start working out the agreement as soon as possible, as this is needed even before a contract could be signed between the DND and Saab. 

The JAS-39C/D Gripen:

While MaxDefense PH has mentioned many times that the F-16 Block 70 Viper was the more superior aircraft than the JAS-39C/D Gripen, that does not make the Gripen a poor aircraft.

It only means that the Viper edges the Gripen in several features and capabilities due to its improvements compared to previous generation F-16 variants, which also made it more expensive than the Gripen C/D variant.

Our previous analysis of the Gripen did not touch on performance values as these information can be obtained from other websites that are more familiar with fighter aircraft. Instead we just listed features where it outshines the F-16 Block 70 Viper.

The Saab JAS-39C Gripen. Photo credits to original source.

Positive Notes:

1. The current JAS-39C/D Gripen being offered to the PAF is said to be in the latest MS20 standard, and includes the PS-05 Mk. 4 pulse doppler radar, which is considered among the best non-AESA fire control radar for fighter aircraft in the world.

The Mk.4 variant has made significant improvements over older variants of the PS-05 radar, including improved range, ability to detect low Radar Cross Section targets, enhanced jammer suppression, and improved missile-lock performance.

Some info on PS-05 Mk. 4 capability compared to older variants of the radar. Photo credits to Gripen News' Twitter account.

2. The JAS-39C/D Gripen is cheaper to procure than the F-16 Block 70 Viper, at least in the Philippine competition as explained earlier in this blog. This allows savings in initial procurement cost.

3. There's the still debatable but widely accepted concept of Gripen's low operating cost, quick turn-around time, less requirements for infrastructure and manpower, and simplicity of overall operation.

Fast turnaround and reduced crew requirements are among the key features Saab was said to win against the F-16 Viper. Photo credits to Saab and Flight Global.

This means savings in sustainment compared to the F-16 Block 70 Viper in every flight hour, reduced and simplified crew requirements, and most likely cheaper maintenance.

Saab claims that a team led by 1 technician and 5 semi-skilled personnel can re-arm, refuel, and turnaround a single Gripen fighter configured for air-to-air mission in 10 minutes, which is not expected to be possible with the F-16 Viper.

4. The Gripen uses the same engine design as the PAF's FA-50PH fleet, the Volvo RM12 turbofan engine which is essentially a version of the GE F404 engine that is already familiar with the PAF's maintenance and logistics team.

The JAS-39C/D Gripen uses the Volvo RM12 afterburning turbofan engines, essentially a GE F404 engine in the same family as those used by PAF FA-50PH light combat aircraft. Photo credits to Saab.

5. The JAS-39C/D Gripen uses the Meteor BVRAAM, which is said to be the best in its class. This is on top of the compatibility with several other munitions including the AIM-120 AMRAAM, MBDA MICA, and the IRIS-T missiles.

The MBDA Meteor medium-range air-to-air missile, said to be the best in the world, is compatible with the JAS-39 Gripen. Photo credits to AIN Online.

6. MaxDefense sources from the PAF confirmed that Saab guaranteed the delivery of the first 4 to 6 aircraft within 18 months (1.5 years) after Contract Signing and and release of Notice to Proceed. If PAF signs up for an MRF by 2021, it means the PAF could get their Gripens starting 2023, far earlier than the F-16 Viper standard delivery time which is around 4 years or 2025.

One of the JAS-39 Gripen in Saab's production line, and is almost complete. Photos taken from SvD Naringsliv.

7. Despite the variant already superceded by a new one in the form of the JAS-39E/F Gripen NG, Saab has made a commitment to fully support the continued development and improvement of the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen through the next 30 years.

Roadmap for JAS-39C?D Gripen as committed by Saab to its international customers. Photo credits to Richard Smith's Twitter page.

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With the DND and PAF determined to get this project ahead before it becomes too late, MaxDefense PH hopes that their request to make the Multi-Role Fighter Project funded by the National Government would be given priority, considering the limited time available.

Saab, which has an office in Manila, should also work hard to make sure it uses all its available resources including getting support from the Swedish government to push the Duterte administration to make the project happen within the year.

Summary:

Multi-Role Fighter Acquisition Project (Horizon 2)

Note: Edited as of 06 June 2021.

* End User: Philippine Air Force (5th Fighter Wing)

* Quantity: 12 aircraft or more

* Modernization Phase: Horizon 2 Phase of RAFPMP

* Project ABC: Php61,200,000,000.00 (approx. US$1.25 billion)

* Acquisition Mode: Negotiated Procurement (Government-to-Government)

* SARO Release: TBA

* Winning Proponent: TBA, expected to be SAAB AB.

* Product for Delivery: TBA, expected to be Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen

* Contract Price: TBA

* Status: PAF TWG selected F-16C/D Block 70 Viper on August 2019. PAF approved selected on September 2019, and DND approved selection on 30 October 2019. Despite approval, pricing issues and lack of funding has stalled negotiation with Lockheed Martin and re-opened the line of communications with Saab as of 3rd quarter 2020. MaxDefense PH received multiple information confirming PAF TWG releasing new recommendation to proceed with Saab's offer, which was selected due to affordability/pricing issues, and delivery schedule. Recommendation was approved by CGPAF Lt. Gen. Paredes. As of June 2021, DND is said to prepare submitting proposal to Malacanang based on Saab's offer.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen C and Lockheed Martin F-16 Viper remain as the only shortlisted contenders for the PAF's MRF Acquisition Project, with the Viper selected in 2019, but was retracted due to several issues. By 2021, Gripen was selected for procurement. Photo taken from Aviatia.net.

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First release: 06 June 2021
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines

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