Philippine Air Force to restart acquisition of Maritime Patrol Aircraft under the Long Range Patrol Aircraft Project

The Philippine Air Force (PAF) is preparing to re-introduce one of its long-forgotten projects, which it now plans to re-implement under Fiscal Year 2021.

The PAF's Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) Acquisition Project is originally a Horizon 1 phase priority project under the Revised AFP Modernization Program (RAFPMP). But the project hit several setbacks after a successful start a few years ago.

As part of the proposed procurements submitted by the Department of National Defense (DND) to the Senate during its FY2021 budget hearing, the LRPA project was among those proposed to be included as part of the Php5 billion Unprogrammed Appropriations to the AFP Modernization Program.

The Leonardo ATR-72MP (or P-72A) which is among those offered to the PAF. Photo taken from Defpost.

The Airbus C-295ASW Persuader, the original aircraft that the PAF was almost getting until the tender failed. Photo from Airbus.

Flashback:

The Long Range Patrol Aircraft Acquisition Project was among those that started well when Horizon 1 phase was implemented, but ended miserably and neglected due to changes in priorities.

The intention was for the Philippine Air Force to acquire it's first two (2) new maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) that would be used for maritime surveillance, anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare (ASuW & ASW), intelligence gathering, and command & control (C2). The aircraft are  to fly further beyond the country's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), can be armed, and will be the primary manned surveillance asset of the PAF and Armed Forces of the Philippines in general. The allocated budget (ABC) for the project was Php5,976,000,000.00.

The LRPA Acquisition Project was among the first project that was implemented by the PAF due to the expected long acquisition period. It was decided by DND back then that the acquisition will be via Two-Stage Public Bidding, with the procurement process starting as early as 1st quarter of 2014. It was expected that the winning bidder would be able to deliver both aircraft within 34 months after the release of Notice to Proceed (NTP), or opening of Letter of Credit (LOC).

In the first bidding attempt, none of the participating companies were able to pass the 1st first stage of the bidding. 

Another attempt was made in 2016, and only Airbus Military was able to pass the first stage and considered eligible to proceed to the second stage that was suppose to be held in a couple of months. But after several negotiations in between and conducting the second stage bidding, Airbus Military also failed the 2nd stage bidding, effectively declaring the process a failed bidding. 

The C-295ASW Persuader, this example with the Chilean Navy. Photo taken from Airliners.net.

The failure was due to effects of the poor performance of the Philippine pesos against the US dollar and the Euro, wherein the peso value of the ABC was deemed insufficient to allow Airbus Military to deliver two fully compliant MPAs. Instead, Airbus proposed to deliver 1 fully compliant aircraft, and 1 incomplete aircraft (no Anti-Submarine Warfare capability) with the same bid amount they provided in the 1st stage bidding. But based on the government's procurement rules under RA 9184, this is unacceptable, thus Airbus' submitted bid was considered non-compliant, and they were declared disqualified.

With no other bidder in the project, the LRPA Acquisition project was considered a failed bid as of 2017, after more than a year of process.

A third attempt again happened in 2017 but was also considered another failed bidding, after none of the bidders passed the initial requirements under the first stage bidding.

With the failed biddings, the DND is now allowed by law to proceed to a Limited Sourced Negotiated Procurement, which means it can now go directly to several of its shortlisted suppliers/manufacturers and get their best offer. This means the DND can now go directly and negotiate with Airbus Defense & Space, which appears to be the PAF's preferred supplier for the LRPA with their Airbus-CASA C-295MPA Persuader, similar to those sold to the Chilean Navy.

Further reading is advised, through our previous blog entries on the LRPA's technical specs:

"PAF'S Long Range Patrol Aircraft - Tech Specs, Post-Bidding Report and Updated Analysis" - first posted 29 May 2015.

Possible LRPA Negotiated Procurement:

According to MaxDefense's earlier blog entries since 2014, despite the PAF's interest on  refurbished Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft from either US, Japan or Australia, the PAF is actually more interested in getting new aircraft, although they remain open on the potential acquisition of used P-3C Orions to boost the fleet.

The 3 failed biddings in the past means the DND can now go directly and negotiate with interested proponents as allowed by law. This does not need to be just Airbus Military which almost bagged the project a few years ago with their Airbus-CASA C-295MPA Persuader. It now depends on the revised selection process conducted by the PAF's Technical Working Group (TWG), which already changed leadership and membership over the past 6 years. 

The Airbus C-295ASW Persuader of the Chilean Navy, which has an anti-submarine capability including the presence of magnetic anomaly detector (MAD) and munitions firing capability for anti-submarine torpedoes or anti-ship missiles. The PAF's original LRPA requirement also calls for these capabilities.
Photo taken from Airliners.net.

But this does not close the door on the chance that the project would still be procured via a Public Bidding. This would now be dependent on the DND, which should issue a new Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) on how to proceed with the project.

At this point in time, MaxDefense has no information yet as we have not receive any info on a new ADM for the project released by the DND for the project, although we expect to know about it once its released.

Among the delays in the LRPA was attributed to the PAF's insistence of sticking to the specs rather than reducing the aircraft's capability to meet the budget. It was actually a good decision by PAF since they know how difficult it is for them to request for additional funding to fill-up systems that were fitted for but not with the aircraft.
Credits to original source of photo. 

New Information as of November 2020:

Due to the long dormancy of the project, there appears to be a lot of changes in the project. 

First of, the head and members of the Technical Working Group has changed. So expect a different mindset on what to expect with the technical specifications. Majority of those who previously were in the group have already moved up in position although some of them are expected to remain.

Because of this, there is a possibility that revisions on the Technical Specifications could be made. Basis could be on what prompted the project to fail back in 2017.

Cost is another factor. Since 2017, it is expected that the cost of the same maritime patrol aircraft offered in 2016-2017 could have already increased by at least 5-15% due to inflation and other reasons.

Budget:

But one thing has not changed - the budget in pesos. It still remains that same at Php5,976,000,000.00. Back in 2016, the US dollar equivalent of that amount was around US$125.8 million. But in 2017, the US dollar value went down to US$118.5 million, or a difference of US$7.3 million which is a huge amount.

Right now, the US dollar value of Php5,976,000,000.00 is around US$123.4 million. This is close to the 2016 US dollar value, but it does not necessarily mean the PAF can now afford the original offer made by Airbus Military. This now remains on what they would offer with the budget.

MaxDefense also received information a few months ago that should the budget still be an issue, the PAF could be willing to drop the need for a Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD) which is a feature that would allow the PAF's LRPA to detect submarines, in addition to using disposable sonobuoys dropped from the aircraft.

Aircraft Platform Offers:

There were several offers made again to the PAF as it actually kept the LRPA project open to proponents to provide offers. 

Offers came from actual aircraft manufacturers themselves like Airbus, PT Dirgantara Indonesia, and Leonardo. But the PAF also got offers from system integrators like Elbit Systems, IAI-Elta, PAL Aerospace, and Saab.

As for platforms, the PAF is said to be inclined to use turboprop aircraft models, and among those are the Airbus-CASA C-295, the PTDI-CASA CN-235-220, the Bombardier Q400 Dash-8, and the Leonardo ATR-72.

Airbus-CASA C-295 and PTDI-CASA CN-235-220:

Another concern that the PAF has raised was the use of a platform that is cheaper but can attain similar range and endurance requirements, and cannot be converted to a cargo aircraft if the PAF's current airlift fleet becomes short of assets. This appears to be a lesson learned on its previous maritime patrol aircraft, the Fokker F27-200MPA Enforcer, which back in the early 1990s, were converted to troop carriers when the PAF started to lose its airlift assets. 

One of the Fokker F27-200MPA Enforcer maritime patrol aircraft of the PAF, this example already written-off from an accident in the late 1980s, operating only less than 10 years. Photo taken from Airliners.net.

Apparently, the PAF prefers a platform that do not have a modular pallet system, which effectively affects some of the offers including the Airbus-CASA C-295MPA and the PTDI-CASA CN-235-220MPA from Indonesia's PT Dirgantara Indonesia, both of which can be easily converted to transport aircraft due to its modular cabin design. 

But this also becomes an issue in terms of commonality. Logic actually points for the PAF to strongly consider using the Airbus-CASA C-295 platform due to its commonality with existing C-295M transport aircraft that is seen to rise to 7 aircraft once the ongoing Medium Lift Aircraft Phase 2 project moves forward with Airbus' offer.

PTDI's CN-235-220MPA also appears to still be haunted by the same reason of its non-selection a f ew years ago, due to the dimensions and performance of the aircraft not meeting the specified requirements. It also is too short to accommodate 4 operator consoles as required by the PAF's specs.

But compared to most of the offerings, the PTDI CN-235-220MPA has so far confirmed that Magnetic Anomaly Detector can be installed on both aircraft, and there is still enough extra funds to even allow them to provide the PAF with extras.

The proposal to go for platforms that do not have modular systems and a cargo ramp also boosts the chances of the other platforms being offered, the Bombardier's Q400 Dash-8 from Canada, and ATR's ATR-72 platform from Italy.

While Bombardier itself has not made a pitch for the LRPA project, several companies like Elbit Systems proposed to use the Q400 Dash-8 platform as well as the ATR-72 platform, on top of Leonardo's own offer of the ATR-72MP.

Leonardo ATR-72 and Bombardier Q400 Dash-8:

Based on studies made by the PAF, the ATR-72 platform is more desirable due to its lower operating cost and fuel consumption, and cheaper aircraft platform price. While the Bombardier Q-400 Dash-8 performs better in terms of speed and flight characteristics, the PAF believes that the ATR-72 is already good enough for its requirements.

Leonardo has its own offer using the ATR-72 as the platform, called the ATR-72MP (also called the P-72A), which can also be scalable and upgraded to the ATR-72ASW which can perform anti-submarine warfare missions that the standard ATR-72MP cannot do.

The ATR-72MP, this example with the Italian Air Force. Photo taken from Leonardo's website.

The only problem with the ATR-72MP/ASW is Leonardo itself. Apparently the PAF has been unsatisfied with Leonardo's aftersales support on their fleet of AgustaWestland AW109E Power armed helicopters, and has also received the same feedback from the Philippine Navy with its fleet of AW109E Power and AW159 Wildcat naval helicopters.

The Bombardier Q400 is actually used by Saab for its Swordfish MPA, as well as by Canada's PAL Aerospace for their Maritime Patrol Aircraft offering. The Q400 is also an option aircraft platform for both IAI-Elta and Elbit Systems' own MPA offerings.

Elbit Systems is also open to use the ATR-72 aircraft as a platform in place of the Q400. It is unconfirmed though if Airbus is willing to use the ATR-72 for its MPA system, considering ATR is a joint venture of Airbus and Leonardo.

Final Decision?

So far for now, nothing is final so the race could still be anyone's game. There could also be other reasons that could potentially pop out during the negotiation with the proponents.

For example, results of other projects that involve the same proponents (ie. Leonardo being involved in other helicopter projects, PTDI involved in other transport aircraft projects, etc.).

Contrary to what naysayers believe, MaxDefense Philippines does not back any of the proponents, and normally we just support what the end user selects, like in the case of the Philippine Army's Light Tank Project which was already decided almost a year before the winning proponent was awarded.

We always believe that the end user knows what they need better than anyone else, including the DND.

To summarize the pros and cons of each platform:

1. Airbus C-295MPA  / ASW Persuader:

    Pros: commonality with existing C-295M fleet of the PAF.

    Cons: ASW variant could be too expensive and beyond PAF's budget, slower than ATR-72 and Q400.

2. PTDI CN-235-220MPA:

    Pros: cheapest among the platforms offered, can provide ASW capability.

    Cons: shortest cabin space, slowest speed, 1 less operator space (as per PAF's info)

3. Leonardo ATR-72MPA / ASW:

    Pros: cheaper than C-295MPA, potentially able to provide ASW capability within PAF's budget

    Cons: PAF's poor satisfaction of Leonardo's aftersales support

4. Bombardier Q400 Dash-8 MPA / Saab Swordfish Q400:
    Pros: fastest and best performing platform
    Cons: shortest range, narrowest cabin, most expensive platform to operate and sustain, aircraft manufacturer is not the integrator (Saab, PAL Aerospace, IAI, etc).

MaxDefense believes though, based on details and factors on the requirements as well as information from sources, that the race is most likely between Airbus' C-295MPA or C-295ASW, and Leonardo's P-72A. 

The Saab Swordfish MPA system can also use the Q400 platform aside from the Global 6000 jet. Photo from Saab.

Project Summary:

Long Range Patrol Aircraft Acquisition Project:

Note: Edited as of 03 November 2020.

* End User: Philippine Air Force (300th Air Intelligence and Security Wing)

* Quantity: 2 maritime patrol aircraft

* Modernization Phase: Horizon 1 Phase Priority Projects of RAFPMP

* Project ABC: Php5,976,000,000.00

* Acquisition Mode: To be confirmed, awaiting ADM from DND.

* Source of Funding: AFP Modernization Program Trust Fund, to be paid via Multi-Year Obligatory Allocations (MYOA).

* SARO Release: To follow

* Winning Proponent: TBC

* Product for Delivery: TBC

* Contract Price: TBC

* Residual Price: TBC

* First post by MaxDefense: 29 May 2015

* MaxDefense Searching Hashtag: #PAFLRPAAcquisition

* Status: Project restarted, initial funding to be provided in 2021.

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First edit and release: 04 November 2020
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines

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Philippine Navy to Acquire Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft under Horizon 2

As part of the Horizon 2 Priority Projects phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, the Department of National Defense (DND) and the Philippine Navy (PN) has started the bidding process for the acquisition of one (1) Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft.

The Approved Budget for Contract (ABC) for this project is at Php1,333,333,333.33 (US$24.69 million based on US$1=Php54), and bidders are expected to deliver the aircraft within 730 days (2 years) from signing of Contract and receiving the Notice to Proceed (NTP).

The end user for the aircraft is the PN’s Naval Air Group (NAG), which currently operates the Beechcraft C-90 King Air & Britten-Norman BN-2 Islander surveillance and utility aircraft, and Cessna 172 Skyhawk trainer aircraft, aside from helicopters.

The Viking Air DHC-6 Twin Otter Guardian 400, which MaxDefense believes is the basis of the technical specs of the project.
Photo taken from Viking Air website.

Requirements:

Based on the Bid Documents and Technical Specifications released by the DND for the project,  the aircraft can be considered as a brand new, Twin-Engine, multipurpose seaplane which is large enough to be capable of maritime surveillance, search & rescue, and Casualty Evacuation (CASEVAC) and Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC).

The aircraft itself should have the following features:
- Twin Turbine Engined;
- Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) capable;
- With a cruising speed of at least 150 knots in full mission configuration;
- Payload of at least 1,500 kilograms in amphibian configuration;
- Endurance of at least 6 hours;
- Range of at least 900 nautical miles:
- Can take-off and land at Sea State 3 condition

For Maritime Surveillance, the aircraft is to be equipped with the following:

a. Electro-Optical / Infra-Red sensor – retractable to protect from sea landings, capable of multi-sensor imaging and lasing, and in high definition output.

b. Radar – Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar (ISAR) using X-Band Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology capable of surface, air, and weather surveillance, with a maximum range of 120
nautical miles, and weighs not more than 40 kilograms.

c. Fitted for but not with Tactical Data Link 16, and permit 2-way exchange of tactical data with other TDL-equipped AFP units.

d. Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) / Selective Identification Feature (SIF)

e. Bubble-type Windows on both sides – to allow eyeball observation, including suitable use of DSLR camera and digital handheld video cameras.



As a Utility or Passenger Aircraft, the aircraft should have the following:

a. 4 Stretchers for MEDEVAC missions;

b. Seats for at least 19 passengers excluding the pilots:

c. Detachable Static Line for Para jump operations.

The supplier is also required to provide Integrated Logistics Support (ILS), including spares for 1200 hours of operation (an equivalent of 3 years worth of flying hours), Support Equipment and Structures including the tools, ground support equipment, and even the aircraft’s hangar that can accommodate 3 aircraft of the same model at any given time, and conversion training for pilots and ground crew.


PAF Search & Rescue Seaplanes Version 2?

Based on the requirements for the Philippine Navy’s Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft, it is almost exactly the same as the requirements made by the Philippine Air Force a few years ago for their proposed Search & Rescue (SAR) Seaplane, which was later on shelved due to funding diverted to other requirements of the PAF during the Horizon 1 phase of the RAFPMP.

Even the budget for this PN project, which is Php1,333,333,333.33, is exactly the same budget allocated by the PAF for each seaplane.

Dimension size, range and endurance, engine requirements, and other aircraft feature requirements are also almost if not exactly the same as the PAF’s. The radar and EO/IR sensor requirements are also almost the same.

Previosuly, MaxDefense posted a blog entry regarding the PAF’s Search and Rescue Seaplane acquisition project, which can be accessed on the link below:

“Details and Analysis of the PAF's Search and Rescue Seaplane Acquisition Project” – first posted on 16 November 2013.


You can see from the blog entry above and from the current requirements that there are not much differences from each other's requirements, both for the platform/aircraft and the onboard equipment. And it seems that it’s also pointing to the same aircraft as before, which MaxDefense believes is the Viking Air DHC-6 Twin Otter Guardian 400.

There isn’t too many available amphibian aircraft in the market that fits the requirements provided by the PN’s technical specifications. Other minor features indicated in the specs, like a need for a lavatory, makes it more specifically pointed at the Twin Otter Guardian 400.


The Viking Air Twin Otter Guardian 400:

This is a special missions version of the standard DHC-6 Twin Otter Series 400 currently being manufactured by Viking Air of Canada.

The Twin Otter Guardian 400 without the amphibian floats.
Photo taken from Viking Air website.

It has all the bells and whistles that the Philippine Navy is looking for based on the aircraft specs it made publicly available.

The aircraft itself is powered by 2 turbine engines, has a surveillance range of 970 nautical miles (vs 900 nautical miles), and surveillance time on station of 7 hours (vs 6 hours).  And aside from having floats to make it amphibian, the landing gear can be configured also to use standard wheels.

It has a 19-passenger seating (meets requirements), a lavatory, and can be configured to carry up to 8 stretchers (vs 4 stretchers).

A typical cabin configuration of the Twin Otter Guardian 400 in martime surveillance mission profile.

It is equipped with a CarteNav AIMS-ISR Data Management System that controls and integrates the mission sensors, which includes the Selex Seaspray 500E AESA surface search radar, and a retractable EO/IR sensor using either the FLIR PolyTech UltraForce 350 or L3 Wescam MX-15HDi EO/IR sensor equipment. An Automatic Identification System (AIS) can also be installed as an option (required by PN), and several other features.

One of the Data Management System console aboard the Twin Otter Guardian 400.
Photo taken from Viking Air's website.

The only problem we see here is the aircraft being from Canada, which could be an issue after what happened to the G2G deal between the DND and Canadian Commercial Corporation. The export license may be an issue, considering that the aircraft is military in nature although it is obviously not armed and cannot be used to kill people.

But if this pushes through without too much drama, this opens up the window again for defense acquisitions from Canada, although probably limited only to unarmed systems.



Impact on the Naval Air Group:

Once this aircraft comes into service, this would effectively become the Naval Air Group’s most capable maritime patrol aircraft, considering that the plan to upgrade their existing Beechcraft C-90 King Air fleet by installing surveillance equipment is has not moved beyond the planning stage yet as of this writing, while MaxDefense believes that there is only 1 of their BN-2 Islander aircraft that was upgraded with a limited maritime surveillance capability.

One of the 5 Beehcraft C-90 King Air of the Naval Air Group. MaxDefense have reasons to believe that if more of these birds can be provided by Japan, the NAG might convert some of them into ELINT platforms
Credits to owner of photo.

It would also lay the groundwork for the acquisition of more Amphibian Aircraft for the PN-NAG, considering that despite only 1 was requested in this Horizon 2 phase, originally the PN-NAG was requesting for at least 3 aircraft worth Php4 billion (still based on a budget of 1 aircraft for Php1.33 billion). The PN-NAG is targeting to have 6 aircraft by the end of Horizon 3 phase, which means up to 5 more will be acquired.

Together with the Beechcraft C-90, these will form the Philippine Navy’s Maritime Patrol Aircraft fleet covering short-medium range requirements of the AFP, while the Philippine Air Force will cover the long range requirement using their still pending Long Range Patrol Aircraft and their upcoming Hermes 900 unmanned aerial systems.

The disadvantage of these air assets are their lack of capability in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), as well as munitions delivery capability. It is expected that these assets will act as eyes and ears for the fleet, as well as part of the overall AFP C4ISTAR system interconnecting all AFP units into a more cohesive fighting force.


Procurement and Bidding:

The bid opening is currently scheduled on 16 October 2018, although this could change depending on request by potential bidders for time extension or further clarifications. But due to the requirements leading too much for a specific product, MaxDefense doesn’t expect a lot of drama coming out from this project.

Viking Air is apparently represented in the Philippines by Asian Aerospace Corporation (which requested for the bid documents based on PhilGEPS page of the project), although previously, Viking Air appears to have made their own representation during the PAF SAR Seaplane Acquisition Project.
With the project still in the pre-bidding stage, MaxDefense expects a lot of updates coming out in the next several weeks leading up to an award. Hopefully, the DND would at least release the Notice of Award to the lowest calculated bidder before the end of the year.


Summary:

1. Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft

End User: Philippine Navy (Naval Air Group)
Modernization Phase: Horizon 2 Phase of RAFPMP
ABC: 1,333,333,333.33
SARO Release: SARO-BMB-D-18-0013736, released 18 June 2018
Winning Proponent: still for bidding
Contract Price: N/A
First post by MaxDefense: 21 September 2018



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UPDATES:
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20 February 2019:

MaxDefense learned that the Public Bidding for the Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft acquisition for the Philippine Navy FAILED. This is due to no bidders submitted a bid when it closed last October 2018.

The worrying part is that the Department of National Defense (DNd), which is undertaking the bidding process on behalf of the Philippine Navy, has not reopened the project for another re-bidding.

Re-Bidding is expected to happen since the country's procurement laws under RA9184 only allows going into negotiated procurement after the DND fails again in another public bidding attempt.

The decision to go for public bidding is actually a funny decision by the DND, since it is very clear that the Philippine Navy is after a specific aircraft, which is the de Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter from Viking Air. They are being represented in the Philippines by only a single company.

Should they have just went for a negotiated mode of procurement, this project should already be rolling by now.


Just for the sake of discussion, is the Philippine Navy really urgently needing to acquire this, considering only a single aircraft is involved? 

While it is highly possible that this is a prelude to the acquisition of several more (as the PN is looking at having at least 6 of them for a squadron) and that this unit is to prepare them for it, there are several projects in the Philippine Navy that MaxDefense and several of it's contributors believe to be underfunded. 

Among them are the following:
1. Del Pilar-class Frigate Upgrade Project - MaxDefense was told by people involved that the budget is too low that even the cheapest product being offered many not meet the requirements!!

2. Offshore Patrol Vessel acquisition - the mission modules needed for other important missions like minehunting may not be funded as the project's budget is already too tight for additional items. Also, the additional budget may allow the PN to specify a better sensor suite (i.e. a 3D radar instead of 2D) for all 6 ships.

3. Frigate acquisition (Horizon 1 Jose Rizal-class) - is the PN not considering the installation of 2 units of 30mm machine gun system instead of just having 1 unit per ship? Normally 1 gun system covers 180 degrees of the ship, and 2 are needed to cover most, if not all sides of the ship from surface threats like small suicide boats. Why not install 1 gun system each at port and starboard side, just like what they did on the BRP Ramon Alcaraz?

These are just questions that we hope the Philippine Navy can see, as we believe these proposals could be also in the minds of some of their officials.

MaxDefense will provide more updates on this Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft acquisition project as more information comes in.

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Updates on the PAF's Long Range Patrol Aircraft Acquisition - It looks like the P-3C Orion afterall

Since the failure of the 1st bidding attempt for the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) acquisition project, the Department of National Defense (DND) has not restarted the bidding for a second attempt, which is the most possible direction the DND would be going to. None of the possible bidders made it through the submission of bids, even after Elbit Systems and IAI Elta, both from Israel, submitted their Motion for Reconsideration for the DND to consider their bids.

The other contenders for the project were Saab Asia Pacific, L3 Mission Integration, Lockheed Martin, PT Dirgantara Indonesia, and CASA-Airbus Defense and Space. This project and bid failure was previously discussed in an older MaxDefense blog entry's update section dated August 11, 2014 (bottom part).

With China's aggressive expansion in the West Philippine Sea, including the Kalayaan Group of Islands and the Philippines' own Exclusive Economic Zone, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has been dependent on the limited surveillance capbilities of the PAF's Fokker F-27 Friendships, C-130 Hercules, and N-22B Nomads, as well as the Philippine Navy's BN-2 Islander fixed wing aircraft. All of these are not designed for maritime patrol and surveillance and are actually tactical transport aircraft. Aside from these assets, the AFP has become dependent on the information provided by the US military through the US Navy's P-3C Orion and P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircrafts. Both types are rotationally stationed at Clark Air Base in Pampanga in support of maritime patrols at the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea area.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion is currently the most prolific MPA asset of the US Navy.

Without a truly capable maritime patrol surveillance capability, this type of aircraft has become one of the most sought-after equipment for the AFP Modernization Program. With the recent updates on the policies of the United States government, as well as other friendly countries like Japan and Australia, other options have been made available to the DND & AFP to fill-in this requirement. But one thing is certain: all options from these countries revolve around the Lockheed P-3C Orion MPA.

Previously the PAF operated F-27MPA Maritime Patrol Aircraft like the one shown above, but were retired only after a few years after losses and lack of maintenance.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion:
Ever since the PAF sought for a replacement for its Fokker F-27MPA Maritimes in the late 1980s, they have always been fixated at the possibility of acquiring the Lockheed P-3 Orion from the Americans. This was especially true they try to compare themselves with other American allies in the Western Pacific region like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, who all have this aircraft in their inventories. The aircraft's ruggedness and flight performance, proven surveillance capabilities, compatibility and interoperability with the Philippines' main ally and strategic partners made it a very logical choice.

Among other ASEAN militaries, only Thailand operates the P-3 as its primary MPA asset.
Photo copyright Analayo Korsakul c/o Airliners.net. 

Its surveillance systems are designed to detect and monitor surface activities, as well as detecting submarines underneath the sea. Aside from being a surveillance platform, it also has the capabilities to carry and launch US-standard anti-submarine torpedoes and anti-ship missiles, as well as depth charges which makes it an all-in-one platform for naval purposes.

Although bristling with all the bells and whistles that the PAF and PN dreams off, there are also downsides on the Orion, mainly on its airframe and design age, and operating costs. Being an aircraft model based on the 1950s Lockheed Electra turboprop airliner, the design has become out of date. And with the "Charlie" model built by Lockheed in the 1970s to 1980s, the airframes are now reaching almost 40 years old on the first batches. Its 4-engine configuration using the Allison T56, which is the same as those used by the Lockheed C-130H in PAF service, are also expected to consume more fuel than smaller, newer 2-engined aircraft like the CASA-Airbus C-295 already in service with the PAF. There were already previous reports wherein the PAF was having difficulty operating C-130s because of fuel consumption, so operating the P-3C won't be any different.

Spare parts will also be another issue, as it is only available from the US, and partly from Japan (being a licensed builder of the type), and new parts will surely be on a decline as the type is already out of production, and most major P-3 operators are already shifting to newer models like the USN and RAAF to the P-8A, and the JMSDF to the P-1. These were actually among the reasons why the DND decided to go for a public bidding process to acquire MPA for the PAF. But for some reason, the decision to reconsider the plan to acquire P-3C might mean some positive changes in the defense planning and budget allocations for the PAF recently that may not be available to the public.

An illustration of the Lockheed P-3C Orion showing its design features.

Recently, there were several news reports of the Philippine government's agreements with the US and Japanese government for military assistance including possible transfer of excess defense articles. And the most reported equipment being prioritized for transfer are P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft.

A JMSDF P-3C (left) and a USN P-3C (right) fly overhead a USN Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Houston (center) during Exercise Keen Sword 2011.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Main Option: US Navy Lockheed P-3C:
With the US Navy being the main user of the P-3C, and is slowly shifting to the new Boeing P-8A Poseidon to replace the old workhorse, the US is the most possible source of excess P-3C for the PAF. It is believed that this request, among with other equipment, were discussed by Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and his American counterpart Ashton Carter in Hawaii mid this week. Some DND and PAF sources told MaxDefense recently that there was a request for between 2 to 4 P-3C Orions to the Americans for use and deployment to WPS patrol missions, although it is also unconfirmed yet if it was the Americans who made the offer. They are expected to operate together with USN P-3C and P-8A aircraft based in Japan but are temporarily stationed at Clark Air Base.

The most possible option is for the Americans to transfer aircraft that are stored by the Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Center (AMARC) in the continental United States, and refurbish it as part of a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) deal. But there is a possibility, due to the urgency of the requirement, for the DND to push for a "hot transfer" of the aircraft, meaning a direct transfer of a servicable unit to the PAF with refurbishing to follow later on, to speed-up the process. 

USN P-3C Orions rotationally based at Clark Air Base. A hot transfer can be made by directly handing over a fully-serviceable aircraft to the Philippine Air Force while the aircraft is in the Philippines.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Secondary Option: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Kawasaki P-3C Orion:
Aside from the Americans, another possible option of sourcing P-3C are those from Japan. Built under license by Kawasaki starting in 1978 up to 1997, the P-3C used by the JMSDF are said to be among the most well maintained and newest airframes in the world. Japan currently operates the second largest fleet of P-3C Orions in the world, but will be slowly shifting to the longer ranged, newer, jet powered, and homegrown Kawasaki P-1 aircraft. 

Being among the most affected by the aggressiveness of China, Japan is a more willing partner in strengthening the capability of the Philippine armed forces, in the hope that a strong AFP can be an effective force in a common goal of containing China's expansion efforts, and to be a strong partner for stability in the region. Japan has always been open in providing the necessary aid to its friendly neighbors, and with its recent changes in policy of exporting weapons and arms, the Philippines are among those expected to be on the receiving end. Recent press releases already indicated the request by the Philippine government for excess P-3C Orions from the Japanese Ministry of Defense, an indication that such possibility is becoming reachable.

It should be of important note that Pres. Aquino is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next week, and among those expected to be discussed is the framework on the transfer of defense equipment and technology to the Philippines.

The JMSDF is the second largest operator of the P-3C Orion. Theirs were built under license locally by Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The P-3C in the JMSDF are scheduled to be slowly replaced by the new Kawasaki P-1.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

MaxDefense sources also indicated a short term request for around 2 to 4 P-3C Orions are among those included in documents provided by the DND to Japan's Ministry of Defense of possible arms for transfer or sale to the Philippine government. But sourcing from Japan might not bear immediate fruit, due to the timing of replacing their fleet by the new home-grown Kawasaki P-1 which will not be made in a fast pace, and due to political reasons related to their recent shift of policy in defense and security. But Japanese sourced P-3C can be a very good option in the long run, as more units can be made available to the PAF, either as spares source or as additional aircraft to meet its longer term goal of having at least 6 long range MPA in the PAF's inventory.

A JMSDF P-3C Orion MPA.
Photo taken from Today's Atsugi blogsite.

The Dark Horse: Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion:
A possible 3rd source of P-3 Orions can be those from Australia, another friendly country with an interest in the stability of the West Philippine Sea. The Royal Australian Air Force has already started reducing the Orion fleet and replacing it in the next few years. Their aircraft, called the AP-3C, is an upgraded version made by L-3 Communications with new mission systems, radar, and accoustic systems.

Previous reports indicated that the RAAF have retired at least 2 AP-3C aircraft at the end of 2014, and these might be available for transfer subject to approval by the Australian and US governments. Aside from the 2 retired aircraft, the RAAF is expected to retire another batch of aircraft starting December 2015 until 2016. The RAAF will start receiving their recently ordered Boeing P-8A Poseidon starting 2017, and the AP-3C are expected to be fully retired from RAAF service by 2019.

Should the 2 retired aircraft be made available for the Philippines, it would be possible to have the aircraft by next year, and could be among the fastest options available to the PAF. 

AP-3C Orion MPA of the Royal Australian Air Force.
Photo taken from Air Force Technology website.

PAF and PN Training in Modern MPA Operation:
The Philippine Air Force and Philippine Navy have been ramping up their chances in gaining experience with working on modern MPA from the US Navy, as well as the Royal Australian Air Force. The USN have been flying P-3C and P-8A from Clark Air Base for some time now, and has allowed PAF and PN personnel to go with them at several occassions. Their recent announcement to continue and even increase their sorties on maritime patrol in the WPS and SCS could also provide Philippine personnel some flight time aboard these aircraft. 

Recently, the RAAF also deployed their AP-3C to the Philippines during Balikatan Exercises 2014, and gave PAF and PN officers and men a chance to observe and learn from standard maritime and anti submarine patrols, and see the capabilities of the aircraft.

PAF personnel aboard a RAAF AP-3C Orion as observers during Balikatan Exercises 2014.
Photo taken from the Australian Defence Magazine.

Filipino officers with US Navy aircrew aboard a P-8A Poseidon aircraft during one of its patrols in the West Philippine Sea.
Photo taken from Rappler's website.

With Japan possibly trying to get access to temporarily and rotationally base some of their surveillance aircraft in the Philippines (which definitely includes the P-3C), it is not far fetched that the JMSDF would be giving PAF and PN personnel the training and experience they need in MPA operations, as part of the agreement. This is in addition to those already provided by the US Navy.



MaxDefense's Opinion:
The P-3C, although the platform is aged, is still a capable maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare platform that is at par or even exceed the capabilities of newer models like those offered to the Philippine Air Force last year. Being the standard MPA of many of the country's security and strategic partners, having them in the short and medium term goals (2015-2022) could be beneficial to meet the immediate requirements sought after by the AFP and the Philippine government as a whole. They are also the fastest possible option right now to fill-up the gaps in the capability of the Philippine military.

Being at par with modern standards, the P-3C is also a suitable bridge to build up the knowledge, experience, and capability of the Philippines and catch-up with the rest of the world, while preparing for more capable platforms in the future.

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The DND and AFP must not only look at the short and medium term goals. Ultimately, the P-3C will need a replacement by a newer and more capable model in the long term (starting 2022 and beyond), and while the P-3s are expected to serve for at least 15 more years with the PAF (as stipulated by the law), the Philippine government should not be complacent again as it did in the past when it forego a chance to replace the Fokker F-27MPA and lose the knowledge and capabilities the PAF once had.

MaxDefense would be closely monitoring the upcoming meeting between Pres. Aquino and PM Abe next week, as it might have some positive implications for this acquisition project.






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UPDATES:
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June 8, 2015:
With the visit of Pres. Aquino to Japan resulting to agreements that will help pave the way for Japan to transfer defense equipment to the Philippines, among those being touted as requested by the Philippines DND are for anti-submarine surveillance aircraft. Although unnamed, it would definitely imply to the P-3C Orion built by Kawasaki, wherein Japan has been retiring a number for quite some time now. Some press reports sourced from Japanese media also directly indicated the P-3C as offered by Japan. The reports also indicated that radar systems were also among those considered for transfer, although not much information was provided on what type.

According to MaxDefense sources, the Philippines and Japan are working for the transfer, either by grant (assistance) or heavily discounted sale, of somewhere between 2 to 4 P-3C aircraft, depending on the finalized discussions that are expected to proceed within the year. The aircraft could be sourced from earlier retired units stored in Japan, and/or from existing fleet aircraft that are scheduled to be retired either late this year or by next year through hot transfer. But be wary of erroneous posts being circulated online by some so-called defense groups that confirms the transfer of 4 P-3C from Japan. Be aware that all these are still being discussed and there is no finalized agreement yet on the proposed transfers. Until a final agreement is reached, everything discussed here can only be considered as plans and proposals.

There are worries that the US might restrict or block the transfer of the aircraft, or certain important parts or systems of the aircraft, but MaxDefense sources from the DND confirmed that the US government and Department of Defense are not expected to restirct or block the aircraft's transfer from Japan to the Philippines. In fact, the US government is also looking at providing US-built P-3C through Foreign Military Sales or Foreign Military Assistance aside from those offered by Japan. More worries are actually on the ability of the Philippine Air Force to absorb the P-3C, as the PAF (and Philippine Navy too) will need some time to train and master the operation and maintenance of the aircraft, which might be too advanced for the PAF and PN to immediately be proficient in.

Aside from P-3C, the DND is said to have included in their papers submitted to the Japanese MoD of what else could be transfered to the Philippines, which may include HADR capable equipment, which includes transport aircraft like JASDF C-130H Hercules, and JGSDF UH-1H and UH-1J Huey helicopters.


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June 25, 2015:
The Department of National Defense (DND) finally confirmed their intention to acquire used Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Japan. These was made by the DND's spokesperson, Dr. Peter Paul Galvez, on June 25, 2015. He said that those being considered are from the excess defense article sources of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), the operator of the P-3C in the Japan SDF.

Another news report came out within the day, sourced from an anonymous DND official, saying that the DND was interested to acquire around 4 to 6 units of ex-JMSDF P-3C Orions, a number that is far greater than what was earlier confirmed by MaxDefense sources of around 2 to 4 units. But the report's source was negative on the possible inclusion of US-made surveillance systems, particularly the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) suite which is the most important system of the aircraft, due to possible US government rejection of such transfer to the Philippine armed forces. It's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to be only capable of surface warfare and surveillance which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability.  

MaxDefense believes that this would be a test to the Philippines' close relations with the United States, and to the meaning of being a Major Non-NATO Ally. The ASW suite is the cornerstone of the P-3C's capability, and it's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to only be capable of surface warfare and surveillance, which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability. This would not enable the Philippines to use the aircraft to detect submarines entering its territorial, archipelagic, and EEZ waters. The only solution aside from pushing the US to allow the ASW suite's transfer is to acquire them from Japanese or other sources. This is possible, but this would definitely cost the Philippine government, and would delay the deployment of the aircraft despite the urgency because of the threat from China.

The ASW system's absence could also mean that the US does not entrust the Philippines with such capability. Considering that the P-3C is not the US military's premier maritime patrol aircraft anymore with the introduction of the newer and more capable Boeing P-8A Poseidon, this could definitely be damaging to the relationship between the allies, and could be used by those left-wing opposition groups who are against the AFP Modernization, the VFA & EDCA with the US to support their reasons to reject these agreements and push their own unhelpful cause.

Aside from pursuing the acquisition of P-3C Orions, the DND also confirmed that the Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) project for the Philippine Air Force is still a go, although the bidding could not proceed because it was among those pending due to Malacanang's decision not to abruptly sign the Revised AFP Modernization Act for reasons still not confirmed by both the DND and the Office of the President. This project is said to run astride with the P-3C Orion acquisition, alhough the concept of operating two types of MPA aircraft is still questionable.

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