Updates on the PAF's Long Range Patrol Aircraft Acquisition - It looks like the P-3C Orion afterall

Since the failure of the 1st bidding attempt for the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) acquisition project, the Department of National Defense (DND) has not restarted the bidding for a second attempt, which is the most possible direction the DND would be going to. None of the possible bidders made it through the submission of bids, even after Elbit Systems and IAI Elta, both from Israel, submitted their Motion for Reconsideration for the DND to consider their bids.

The other contenders for the project were Saab Asia Pacific, L3 Mission Integration, Lockheed Martin, PT Dirgantara Indonesia, and CASA-Airbus Defense and Space. This project and bid failure was previously discussed in an older MaxDefense blog entry's update section dated August 11, 2014 (bottom part).

With China's aggressive expansion in the West Philippine Sea, including the Kalayaan Group of Islands and the Philippines' own Exclusive Economic Zone, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has been dependent on the limited surveillance capbilities of the PAF's Fokker F-27 Friendships, C-130 Hercules, and N-22B Nomads, as well as the Philippine Navy's BN-2 Islander fixed wing aircraft. All of these are not designed for maritime patrol and surveillance and are actually tactical transport aircraft. Aside from these assets, the AFP has become dependent on the information provided by the US military through the US Navy's P-3C Orion and P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircrafts. Both types are rotationally stationed at Clark Air Base in Pampanga in support of maritime patrols at the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea area.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion is currently the most prolific MPA asset of the US Navy.

Without a truly capable maritime patrol surveillance capability, this type of aircraft has become one of the most sought-after equipment for the AFP Modernization Program. With the recent updates on the policies of the United States government, as well as other friendly countries like Japan and Australia, other options have been made available to the DND & AFP to fill-in this requirement. But one thing is certain: all options from these countries revolve around the Lockheed P-3C Orion MPA.

Previously the PAF operated F-27MPA Maritime Patrol Aircraft like the one shown above, but were retired only after a few years after losses and lack of maintenance.

The Lockheed P-3C Orion:
Ever since the PAF sought for a replacement for its Fokker F-27MPA Maritimes in the late 1980s, they have always been fixated at the possibility of acquiring the Lockheed P-3 Orion from the Americans. This was especially true they try to compare themselves with other American allies in the Western Pacific region like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, who all have this aircraft in their inventories. The aircraft's ruggedness and flight performance, proven surveillance capabilities, compatibility and interoperability with the Philippines' main ally and strategic partners made it a very logical choice.

Among other ASEAN militaries, only Thailand operates the P-3 as its primary MPA asset.
Photo copyright Analayo Korsakul c/o Airliners.net. 

Its surveillance systems are designed to detect and monitor surface activities, as well as detecting submarines underneath the sea. Aside from being a surveillance platform, it also has the capabilities to carry and launch US-standard anti-submarine torpedoes and anti-ship missiles, as well as depth charges which makes it an all-in-one platform for naval purposes.

Although bristling with all the bells and whistles that the PAF and PN dreams off, there are also downsides on the Orion, mainly on its airframe and design age, and operating costs. Being an aircraft model based on the 1950s Lockheed Electra turboprop airliner, the design has become out of date. And with the "Charlie" model built by Lockheed in the 1970s to 1980s, the airframes are now reaching almost 40 years old on the first batches. Its 4-engine configuration using the Allison T56, which is the same as those used by the Lockheed C-130H in PAF service, are also expected to consume more fuel than smaller, newer 2-engined aircraft like the CASA-Airbus C-295 already in service with the PAF. There were already previous reports wherein the PAF was having difficulty operating C-130s because of fuel consumption, so operating the P-3C won't be any different.

Spare parts will also be another issue, as it is only available from the US, and partly from Japan (being a licensed builder of the type), and new parts will surely be on a decline as the type is already out of production, and most major P-3 operators are already shifting to newer models like the USN and RAAF to the P-8A, and the JMSDF to the P-1. These were actually among the reasons why the DND decided to go for a public bidding process to acquire MPA for the PAF. But for some reason, the decision to reconsider the plan to acquire P-3C might mean some positive changes in the defense planning and budget allocations for the PAF recently that may not be available to the public.

An illustration of the Lockheed P-3C Orion showing its design features.

Recently, there were several news reports of the Philippine government's agreements with the US and Japanese government for military assistance including possible transfer of excess defense articles. And the most reported equipment being prioritized for transfer are P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft.

A JMSDF P-3C (left) and a USN P-3C (right) fly overhead a USN Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Houston (center) during Exercise Keen Sword 2011.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Main Option: US Navy Lockheed P-3C:
With the US Navy being the main user of the P-3C, and is slowly shifting to the new Boeing P-8A Poseidon to replace the old workhorse, the US is the most possible source of excess P-3C for the PAF. It is believed that this request, among with other equipment, were discussed by Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and his American counterpart Ashton Carter in Hawaii mid this week. Some DND and PAF sources told MaxDefense recently that there was a request for between 2 to 4 P-3C Orions to the Americans for use and deployment to WPS patrol missions, although it is also unconfirmed yet if it was the Americans who made the offer. They are expected to operate together with USN P-3C and P-8A aircraft based in Japan but are temporarily stationed at Clark Air Base.

The most possible option is for the Americans to transfer aircraft that are stored by the Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Center (AMARC) in the continental United States, and refurbish it as part of a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) deal. But there is a possibility, due to the urgency of the requirement, for the DND to push for a "hot transfer" of the aircraft, meaning a direct transfer of a servicable unit to the PAF with refurbishing to follow later on, to speed-up the process. 

USN P-3C Orions rotationally based at Clark Air Base. A hot transfer can be made by directly handing over a fully-serviceable aircraft to the Philippine Air Force while the aircraft is in the Philippines.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

The Secondary Option: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Kawasaki P-3C Orion:
Aside from the Americans, another possible option of sourcing P-3C are those from Japan. Built under license by Kawasaki starting in 1978 up to 1997, the P-3C used by the JMSDF are said to be among the most well maintained and newest airframes in the world. Japan currently operates the second largest fleet of P-3C Orions in the world, but will be slowly shifting to the longer ranged, newer, jet powered, and homegrown Kawasaki P-1 aircraft. 

Being among the most affected by the aggressiveness of China, Japan is a more willing partner in strengthening the capability of the Philippine armed forces, in the hope that a strong AFP can be an effective force in a common goal of containing China's expansion efforts, and to be a strong partner for stability in the region. Japan has always been open in providing the necessary aid to its friendly neighbors, and with its recent changes in policy of exporting weapons and arms, the Philippines are among those expected to be on the receiving end. Recent press releases already indicated the request by the Philippine government for excess P-3C Orions from the Japanese Ministry of Defense, an indication that such possibility is becoming reachable.

It should be of important note that Pres. Aquino is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next week, and among those expected to be discussed is the framework on the transfer of defense equipment and technology to the Philippines.

The JMSDF is the second largest operator of the P-3C Orion. Theirs were built under license locally by Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The P-3C in the JMSDF are scheduled to be slowly replaced by the new Kawasaki P-1.
Photo taken from Wikimedia Commons.

MaxDefense sources also indicated a short term request for around 2 to 4 P-3C Orions are among those included in documents provided by the DND to Japan's Ministry of Defense of possible arms for transfer or sale to the Philippine government. But sourcing from Japan might not bear immediate fruit, due to the timing of replacing their fleet by the new home-grown Kawasaki P-1 which will not be made in a fast pace, and due to political reasons related to their recent shift of policy in defense and security. But Japanese sourced P-3C can be a very good option in the long run, as more units can be made available to the PAF, either as spares source or as additional aircraft to meet its longer term goal of having at least 6 long range MPA in the PAF's inventory.

A JMSDF P-3C Orion MPA.
Photo taken from Today's Atsugi blogsite.

The Dark Horse: Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion:
A possible 3rd source of P-3 Orions can be those from Australia, another friendly country with an interest in the stability of the West Philippine Sea. The Royal Australian Air Force has already started reducing the Orion fleet and replacing it in the next few years. Their aircraft, called the AP-3C, is an upgraded version made by L-3 Communications with new mission systems, radar, and accoustic systems.

Previous reports indicated that the RAAF have retired at least 2 AP-3C aircraft at the end of 2014, and these might be available for transfer subject to approval by the Australian and US governments. Aside from the 2 retired aircraft, the RAAF is expected to retire another batch of aircraft starting December 2015 until 2016. The RAAF will start receiving their recently ordered Boeing P-8A Poseidon starting 2017, and the AP-3C are expected to be fully retired from RAAF service by 2019.

Should the 2 retired aircraft be made available for the Philippines, it would be possible to have the aircraft by next year, and could be among the fastest options available to the PAF. 

AP-3C Orion MPA of the Royal Australian Air Force.
Photo taken from Air Force Technology website.

PAF and PN Training in Modern MPA Operation:
The Philippine Air Force and Philippine Navy have been ramping up their chances in gaining experience with working on modern MPA from the US Navy, as well as the Royal Australian Air Force. The USN have been flying P-3C and P-8A from Clark Air Base for some time now, and has allowed PAF and PN personnel to go with them at several occassions. Their recent announcement to continue and even increase their sorties on maritime patrol in the WPS and SCS could also provide Philippine personnel some flight time aboard these aircraft. 

Recently, the RAAF also deployed their AP-3C to the Philippines during Balikatan Exercises 2014, and gave PAF and PN officers and men a chance to observe and learn from standard maritime and anti submarine patrols, and see the capabilities of the aircraft.

PAF personnel aboard a RAAF AP-3C Orion as observers during Balikatan Exercises 2014.
Photo taken from the Australian Defence Magazine.

Filipino officers with US Navy aircrew aboard a P-8A Poseidon aircraft during one of its patrols in the West Philippine Sea.
Photo taken from Rappler's website.

With Japan possibly trying to get access to temporarily and rotationally base some of their surveillance aircraft in the Philippines (which definitely includes the P-3C), it is not far fetched that the JMSDF would be giving PAF and PN personnel the training and experience they need in MPA operations, as part of the agreement. This is in addition to those already provided by the US Navy.



MaxDefense's Opinion:
The P-3C, although the platform is aged, is still a capable maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare platform that is at par or even exceed the capabilities of newer models like those offered to the Philippine Air Force last year. Being the standard MPA of many of the country's security and strategic partners, having them in the short and medium term goals (2015-2022) could be beneficial to meet the immediate requirements sought after by the AFP and the Philippine government as a whole. They are also the fastest possible option right now to fill-up the gaps in the capability of the Philippine military.

Being at par with modern standards, the P-3C is also a suitable bridge to build up the knowledge, experience, and capability of the Philippines and catch-up with the rest of the world, while preparing for more capable platforms in the future.

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The DND and AFP must not only look at the short and medium term goals. Ultimately, the P-3C will need a replacement by a newer and more capable model in the long term (starting 2022 and beyond), and while the P-3s are expected to serve for at least 15 more years with the PAF (as stipulated by the law), the Philippine government should not be complacent again as it did in the past when it forego a chance to replace the Fokker F-27MPA and lose the knowledge and capabilities the PAF once had.

MaxDefense would be closely monitoring the upcoming meeting between Pres. Aquino and PM Abe next week, as it might have some positive implications for this acquisition project.






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UPDATES:
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June 8, 2015:
With the visit of Pres. Aquino to Japan resulting to agreements that will help pave the way for Japan to transfer defense equipment to the Philippines, among those being touted as requested by the Philippines DND are for anti-submarine surveillance aircraft. Although unnamed, it would definitely imply to the P-3C Orion built by Kawasaki, wherein Japan has been retiring a number for quite some time now. Some press reports sourced from Japanese media also directly indicated the P-3C as offered by Japan. The reports also indicated that radar systems were also among those considered for transfer, although not much information was provided on what type.

According to MaxDefense sources, the Philippines and Japan are working for the transfer, either by grant (assistance) or heavily discounted sale, of somewhere between 2 to 4 P-3C aircraft, depending on the finalized discussions that are expected to proceed within the year. The aircraft could be sourced from earlier retired units stored in Japan, and/or from existing fleet aircraft that are scheduled to be retired either late this year or by next year through hot transfer. But be wary of erroneous posts being circulated online by some so-called defense groups that confirms the transfer of 4 P-3C from Japan. Be aware that all these are still being discussed and there is no finalized agreement yet on the proposed transfers. Until a final agreement is reached, everything discussed here can only be considered as plans and proposals.

There are worries that the US might restrict or block the transfer of the aircraft, or certain important parts or systems of the aircraft, but MaxDefense sources from the DND confirmed that the US government and Department of Defense are not expected to restirct or block the aircraft's transfer from Japan to the Philippines. In fact, the US government is also looking at providing US-built P-3C through Foreign Military Sales or Foreign Military Assistance aside from those offered by Japan. More worries are actually on the ability of the Philippine Air Force to absorb the P-3C, as the PAF (and Philippine Navy too) will need some time to train and master the operation and maintenance of the aircraft, which might be too advanced for the PAF and PN to immediately be proficient in.

Aside from P-3C, the DND is said to have included in their papers submitted to the Japanese MoD of what else could be transfered to the Philippines, which may include HADR capable equipment, which includes transport aircraft like JASDF C-130H Hercules, and JGSDF UH-1H and UH-1J Huey helicopters.


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June 25, 2015:
The Department of National Defense (DND) finally confirmed their intention to acquire used Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Japan. These was made by the DND's spokesperson, Dr. Peter Paul Galvez, on June 25, 2015. He said that those being considered are from the excess defense article sources of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), the operator of the P-3C in the Japan SDF.

Another news report came out within the day, sourced from an anonymous DND official, saying that the DND was interested to acquire around 4 to 6 units of ex-JMSDF P-3C Orions, a number that is far greater than what was earlier confirmed by MaxDefense sources of around 2 to 4 units. But the report's source was negative on the possible inclusion of US-made surveillance systems, particularly the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) suite which is the most important system of the aircraft, due to possible US government rejection of such transfer to the Philippine armed forces. It's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to be only capable of surface warfare and surveillance which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability.  

MaxDefense believes that this would be a test to the Philippines' close relations with the United States, and to the meaning of being a Major Non-NATO Ally. The ASW suite is the cornerstone of the P-3C's capability, and it's absence from the aircraft system would reduce the aircraft to only be capable of surface warfare and surveillance, which is a far cry from a modern maritime patrol aircraft's capability. This would not enable the Philippines to use the aircraft to detect submarines entering its territorial, archipelagic, and EEZ waters. The only solution aside from pushing the US to allow the ASW suite's transfer is to acquire them from Japanese or other sources. This is possible, but this would definitely cost the Philippine government, and would delay the deployment of the aircraft despite the urgency because of the threat from China.

The ASW system's absence could also mean that the US does not entrust the Philippines with such capability. Considering that the P-3C is not the US military's premier maritime patrol aircraft anymore with the introduction of the newer and more capable Boeing P-8A Poseidon, this could definitely be damaging to the relationship between the allies, and could be used by those left-wing opposition groups who are against the AFP Modernization, the VFA & EDCA with the US to support their reasons to reject these agreements and push their own unhelpful cause.

Aside from pursuing the acquisition of P-3C Orions, the DND also confirmed that the Long Range Patrol Aircraft (LRPA) project for the Philippine Air Force is still a go, although the bidding could not proceed because it was among those pending due to Malacanang's decision not to abruptly sign the Revised AFP Modernization Act for reasons still not confirmed by both the DND and the Office of the President. This project is said to run astride with the P-3C Orion acquisition, alhough the concept of operating two types of MPA aircraft is still questionable.

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Helicopters as Alternative Way to Supply PH Outposts in Kalayaan Islands

The difficulty encountered by the Department of National Defense (DND) and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to relieve and replace its troops, and sending provision and supplies to its troops stationed in the BRP Sierra Madre at the Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) outpost was recently highlighted. A civilian ship of the government, BRP Fort San Antonio (AM-700) was sent to Ayungin Shoal for a second attempt to resupply and relieve troops at the AFP's outpost there when China Coast Guard vessels attempted to block the Philippine vessel. This aggression was captured on film by local and foreign media invited to the voyage, making the Chinese aggression in the Kalayaan Group of Islands (KIG) public. It was a good move by the Philippine government as part of its efforts to show to the world what is exactly happening on this side of the globe. 

With skill and some luck, the second attempt to reach the outpost was successful, but until when can the AFP do the same to freely access a part of Philippine territory and EEZ. The Philippine government must always consider changes in the way the Chinese until try to control the area. It is expected that the China Coast Guard will make adjustments to their naval blockade and make sure that a repeat of the successful passage of a Philippine vessel will be harder or impossible next time.

The BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57), the only outpost the Philippine government has at the Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) which is being claimed by China but is under control by the Philippines.

A China Cost Guard vessel attempting to block the civilian Philippine supply ship heading towards Ayungin Shoal.

So far, the Chinese are unable to stop aerial resupply missions, wherein the Philippine Navy (PN) previously use their BN-2 Islander light utility aircraft and flying low over the BRP Sierra Madre and drop supplies. Stopping them can only be done by either forcing them away using fighter aircraft, which is already an aggressive move but can still be disregarded by AFP aircraft. Other ways to stop aircraft attempting to supply the outposts is by radar-locking the aircraft, which is already a serious threat from the aggressor being a signal of a probable missile launch, or by shooting down the PN aircraft. Although the Chinese may not do the last 2 possibilities, it can do the first example but the AFP aircraft can always disregard them.

The BRP Sierra Madre being overflown by a Philippine Navy BN-2 Islander aircraft attempting an airdrop.
Photo taken from WESCOM, AFP website.

With this, MaxDefense suggests the use of medium or heavy-lift helicopters, which can operate from naval or civilian ships several miles away from the Chinese blockade. These helicopters have the endurance, size, and payload capacity to carry men and supplies from a distance, and can fly over the Chinese naval blockade. Supplies can be dropped on the deck of BRP Sierra Madre and on allocated spaces provided on far-flung outposts in the KIG in a similar way as a vertical replenishment (VERTREP) usually done in naval operations.


Vertical Replenishment:
Also known as VERTREP, this is a method of dropping supplies to ships or outposts similar to the BRP Sierra Madre. Supplies can be carried underneath helicopters using specialized slings or cargo nets, and are delivered by hovering the helicopter over the drop area and manually releasing the load from below. The Philippine Navy is currently learning this supply process using their newly-acquired AW109 Power helicopters as part of their skills and capability improvement. 

A US Navy MH-60S Knighthawk helicopter doing a VERTREP of supplies. A similar procedure can be done by the AFP to supply outposts in the WPS in case Chinese provocations and naval blockades persist in the near future.
Photo taken from Defenselink.mil.

Suggested Helicopters:
So far, only the Philippine Navy's Gregorio del Pilar-class frigates have the capacity to carry helicopters capable enough to do major VERTREP missions, and are only equipped with small helicopters like the AW109 Power which are not really designed for this capability. But these frigates' flight decks are capable of accepting 10-ton class helicopters, there are very few helicopters that can be suggested for this requirement.

The most obvious helicopter is the Sikorsky MH-60S "Knighthawk", which is the primary VERTREP helicopter of the US Navy. It was designed to do these missions, and can also be a viable candidate for the PN's requirement for transport helicopters for its upcoming Strategic Sealift Vessels (SSV). The PN could acquire 4 units, 2 assigned for each of the future SSV, and can be temporarily assigned to other PN ships for duties such as supply runs.

But buying new helicopters means that it will take some years before the first helicopter becomes available, so MaxDefense also suggests the acquisition of EDA helicopters in the meanwhile either by grant or reduced price purchase. MaxDefense suggests the Boeing Vertol CH-46E Sea Knight helicopters that are being replaced in the US Marine Corps, and are readily available for transfer to allies like the Philippines. Sea Knights were previously used by the US Navy for VERTREP missions until they were replaced by the MH-60S. These helicopters can be carried by the PN frigate's flight deck and are capable of VERTREP operations. Reportedly the US has been offering the CH-46 to friendly nations, and can be requested by the DND as part of the US' defense assistance to the Philippines.

A US CH-46 helicopter doing VERTREP.  The US has a lot of readily available CH-46 helicopters that can be obtained via EDA grants.
Photo taken from fas.org.

Aside from ship-based helicopters, the AFP could also consider acquiring larger transport helicopters that can be deployed from Palawan to supply its outposts in the KIG, and at the same time be used for other missions like humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) and troop transport. 



Other Possible Helicopter Suggestions:
The DND has been looking at acquiring larger helicopters than its current assets, but has always given priority to replace its ageing UH-1H fleet while also having consistent budgetary issues that has been plaguing the Philippine armed forces for several decades now. But with the move to improve the military's transport and HADR capability may have opened the possibility to acquire them due to their size, range and payload in carrying supplies. This was suggested earlier by MaxDefense in an earlier blog entry, and it appears that the DND has shown interest on acquiring such assets and has been looking at this capability that may be included in its future defense procurement projects. 

Coming from the mainland Palawan which is more than 100 miles from the outposts, they could store the supplies inside the helicopters, and deliver them by hovering low and dropping them on specialized platforms installed on the ship deck which will safely break the fall of the supply containers. 

For heavy-lift helicopters, MaxDefense suggestions include the CH-53 Super Stallion/Sea Stallion and the CH-47 Chinook, both of which are available for Excess Defense Articles (EDA) transfer from the US government. The DND may even opt to buy a couple of new Boeing CH-47F Chinooks or the Sikorsky CH-53K Super Stallions if budget permits, although getting EDA would be an easier route due to cost considerations.

Surplus CH-53D Sea Stallions can be obtained from the US military stocks, after refurbishing that will probably be shouldered by the Philippine government.
Photo taken from Airliners.net

Another alternative are the smaller but still capable medium-lift helicopters, which are also currently not available in the PAF or AFP's inventory. MaxDefense suggests the Eurocopter's EC725 Super Cougar, or AgustaWestland's AW101. These helicopters are reportedly cheaper to acquire, operate and maintain as compared to larger helicopters like the Super Stallion. 

The Eurocopter EC-725 Super Cougar is a medium helicopter currently in use or ordered by other ASEAN armed forces like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.
Photo taken from Planespotters.net.

Another worth considering for the medium helicopter is the AgustaWestland AW101, the example above being operated by the Royal Air Force.
Photo taken from Planespotters.net

Some issues that hinders the acquisition of heavy and medium-lift helicopters for the AFP are mostly on the costs of procurement, operation, and maintenance. Operating a squadron may indeed be cost prohibitive to the AFP, but operating a small fleet of at least 3 or 4 heavy-lift helicopters might be sufficient for the basic requirements of the AFP and in supporting resupply missions. Aside from this, the helicopters can be used for combat and peacetime search and rescue, air assault missions, and transport requirements to areas without airfields. 

These large helicopters may not need to be operated at the same tempo as the smaller combat utility helicopters of the PAF. The availability of other rotary assets like the UH-1H and W-3A, and Bell 412 with the PAF means that the AFP has a lot of helicopter options to use in case the heavy lift helicopters are considered too much for a certain mission. This is the same concept to the reason why the Philippine Air Force (PAF) maintains and procures different transport aircraft sizes like the C-130, C-295 and NC-212. 




Preparation of BRP Sierra Madre for VERTREP:
For the BRP Sierra Madre, it would also be best if the AFP can make structural modifications on the ship's deck to make it suitable for dropping supplies carried underneath the helicopter, and not necessarily for the helicopter to land. Recent photos of the outpost shows massive degradation of the steel deck that may not be able to carry loads brought upon by a heavy-lift helicopter. 

Structural strengthening will improve the ship deck's capability to accept heavy load of supplies without the risk of giving way due to weight. This may include works that may affect the so-called "status quo" of not building structures on the disputed territories, although the works can be made inside the ship without being noticed by Chinese or other foreign surveillance aircraft, ships or satellites. The only concern on this is bringing in the construction materials needed, which might be done by another supply run via ships similar to the usual procedure the AFP does its supply missions. 

The BRP Sierra Madre's deck must be structurally strengthened to accommodate supplies stowed underneath the heavy lift helicopter.
Photo taken from Inquirer.net

Aside for preparation for VERTREP, the ship is in dire need for repair works and improvement of facilities. The entire ship is literally falling apart and becoming unsafe for those Marines stationed there. This is another consideration why the AFP and DND must think of ways to physically improve the outpost and improve the living conditions there. 

Other outposts in the KIG, like those on Patag, Panata, Kota, Lawak, Parola, and Pag-asa islands, at Rizal and Balagtas reefs must also be improved, although this may have serious implications that will give other claimants their own reasons to do the same for their occupied areas. A simple provision of supply dropping point  by helicopters can easily be prepared without doing major construction works.

Other outposts like those in Patag Island have enough space for helicopters to land. Accessing the island from to bring supplies from ships requires the use of rubber boats to avoid stranding the supply ships.
Photo taken from Interaksyon.com.

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UPDATES:
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July 20, 2015:
News reports surfaced on the plans to structurally repair and improve the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal), which includes preparing a helicopter landing deck on the ship. It is still unclear how the AFP or Philippine Navy intends to do that reinforcement for the ship (which is still considered a commissioned warship of the Philippine Navy), but it would definitely be enought to accomodate existing PAF and PN helicopter assets.

MaxDefense suggests that they consider increasing the load carrying capacity of the helicopter landing deck, including installation of proper lighting and safety features to enable nighttime and poor weather condition use if necessary. 

Although this project for the ship should have been kept under dark to the media due to its sensitivity, everything is already out so the best they can do is make sure to do the upgrades, and do it fast without hesitation or budget deprivation.

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Why Not The Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate for the Philippine Navy?

As talks regarding the increased rotation of US forces in the Philippines begins, different groups threw their reasons for supporting or not supporting the plan. But one thing started appearing to be a common ground between the opposing groups: both agree that the Philippine military is ill-equipped to secure its territory, its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and the Kalayaan Group of Islands (KIG) from foreign threat, specifically the Chinese and Taiwanese.

An Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate of the US Navy. Several of the class are available for transfer to allied countries like the Philippines.
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

The Philippine Navy (PN), through its Desired Force Mix (DFM) white paper released in 2012, plan to have a fleet of at least 6 anti-aircraft warfare (AAW) frigates and 12 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) corvettes in its arsenal in a time frame covering around 15 years. But currently it only has 3 old gun frigates, and is still grasping to purchase 2 brand new light frigates that appears to be underfunded at around Php 9 billion ($208 million) per ship considering the capability the PN is requesting the ships to have. These new ships would only be in service with the PN several years from now, estimated between early 2017 to early 2018 if the PN chooses a design that is still to be realized, or it could be a little earlier if the PN chooses an existing design. Thus the PN will have to make do with what it has while it waits for the new ships to be fully operational.

The PN is actually looking forward to have Anti-Aircraft Warfare Frigates in its future arsenal. The Royal Netherlands Navy's De Zeven Provincien-class frigates is an example of a typical AAW frigate.
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

At this rate, the PN will be short of capable surface combatants for the organization to effectively do its missions, and have the minimum deterrence and capability to defend Philippine waters and EEZ. Also the PN would not be able to attain its desired capability and numbers since the committed ships for commissioning is not enough. Even without following the said white paper plan, there is obviously not enough combat ready ships in the PN's fleet. 

To beef up its fleet, the PN should consider obtaining used but still capable frigates and corvettes, which can be obtained from allies and friendly countries. Currently there are a number of friendly countries that plan or have already started decommissioning their naval assets that can still be useful with the PN, and are definitely more capable and younger than its current assets. Many of these ships, especially those from the US are dropped before they reach their original scheduled retirement.

After making a U-turn on the Italian offers, and bypassing offers from France and other European countries, there is another frigate class that was always rejected by the PN's top brass but is the only relevant choice right now:

The US Navy's Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate, also known as the OHP-class.


Purpose:
The OHP frigates were designed and built for the US Navy as fast fleet anti-submarine warfare escorts, with capability for limited area air defense and platform for anti-ship missiles. They are required to move fast to keep up with nuclear powered aircraft carriers which usually run at around 30 knots when required. But it lost its missile capability with the removal of its single Mk. 13 arm-type missile launcher. It has hangar space for 2 SH-60 Seahawk shipboard helicopters.

Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates are great anti-submarine platforms but in its current state it does not even have sufficient surface and anti-aircraft combat capability and will need weapons upgrade.
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

In contrast, the PN's frigate requirement based on it's DFM white paper is for an "Anti-Aircraft Warfare Frigate", as the designation suggests it would be general purpose surface combatant, with emphasis on anti-aircraft warfare but with sufficient anti-submarine and surface warfare capability. There is another requirement for the PN for corvettes that are general purpose but with strong emphasis on anti-submarine warfare. The corvette's requirements are actually closer to the OHP-class' strengths, although the OHP-class does not have sufficient air and surface warfare capability in its current guise.


Age:
At more or less 25 years old average, the ships are definitely old per Western standards, but that is expected from used warships, besides they are still younger than most PN major assets which are more than twice that age. With proper refurbishing and modernization these ships would be able to meet the PN's requirements for another 15 years, which is the stipulated parameter for purchasing used materiel for the AFP according to the Philippine government's Administrative Order (AO) No. 169. Sec. 3.2.3.b.


Availability:
The OHP-class is currently being retired by the US Navy while being replaced by the newer Littoral Combat Ships (LCS). A number of ships are available for transfer to allied countries like the Philippines, and there are even some countries previously offered by the US government that did not took the opportunity for many reasons. Thailand may pass on an offer for 2 ships as they decided to instead purchase a new frigate from South Korea.

Of all countries that have available used warships for transfer to other navies, the US Navy currently leads the market.


Operating Cost:
This has been the major reason why previous offers for the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates were always declined by the PN. The ships are powered by 2 General Electric LM2500-30 marine gas turbines in a Combined Gas and Gas (COGAG) configuration. Although gas turbines are light, compact and provide a higher output, it consumes more fuel as compared to diesel engines, and the OHP-class uses these turbines even on cruise speed and economy speeds.

The General Electric LM2500 marine gas turbine, 2 of this powers the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates making it a gas guzzler in Philippine Navy standards which mostly has a diesel-powered fleet.
Photo taken from GE Energy website.

According to Globalsecurity.org and FAS.org, the average operating cost of an OHP frigate in 1996 was $16 million a year. That was when the OHP-class still has its Mk. 13 single-arm multi-purpose missile launchers with SM-1MR Standard surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

It should be taken into consideration though, that the PN operates at a lower cost as compared to the USN. Points to consider are lower manpower costs, lower services and maintenance costs, less operating tempo, less rigorous training programs and attendance, and longer maintenance duration. Thus it is expected that the PN can operate the OHP-class frigates at a lower cost than reported. But it would still definitely be higher than the operating cost of the Gregorio del Pilar-class frigates that the PN currently has due to the higher fuel costs.

It should be taken into consideration that the entry of the 2 CODOG-powered frigates into PN service already pushed the gasoline, oil and lubricants (GOL) expenses to record levels.

Upgrade Options:
The OHP-class frigates in the current neutered state is nothing more than a large anti-submarine platform, with no missiles but still retaining its anti-submarine suite plus more close in weapons. The absence of the Mk. 13 arm-type missile launcher due to obsolescence and standardization of US Navy missile delivery systems will actually push any buyer to take a look at alternative ways to up-arm the ships.

Taiwan's OHP-class known as the Cheng Kung-class, are still equipped with the Mk. 13 launcher although they have a separate boxed launcher for the locally developed Hsiung Feng II anti-ship missiles and some are reportedly already equipped with the "carrier killer" Hsiung Feng III missiles. Pakistan's sole OHP-class ship, the PNS Alamgir, is also reportedly armed with Harpoon missiles in boxed launchers. Thus the concept of installing an anti-ship missile system without relying on the Mk. 13 missile launcher is possible.

A Republic of China (Taiwan) Navy Cheng Kung-class frigate, Taiwanese-made Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate equipped with their locally-produced Hsiung Feng II anti-ship missiles in boxed launchers just below the main mast.
Photo taken from ROC Navy / Ministry of Defense website.

For air defense, the ship was also dependent on the Mk. 13 launcher, but there are also programs made by other countries to increase it's capability without relying on the said arm launcher. Australia installed an 8-cell Mk. 41 vertical launch system (VLS) for Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM), located forward of the Mk. 13 launcher (which was still retained) of their Adelaide-class frigates (Australian version of OHP-class frigates). This was done as part of the Royal Australian Navy's (RAN) SEA 1390 FFG Upgrade Program. The Turkish Navy's (TDK) G-class frigates (ex-USN OHP-class frigates) also did the same upgrade of installing a Mk. 41 VLS as what the Australians did. As for the PN, the absence of the Mk. 13 launcher means that there is more space available at the ship's A-position which can be used to install a VLS or other missile-launching system, in addition to the space where RAN and TDK installed their Mk. 41 VLS.

The Royal Australian Navy's HMAS Sydney, upgraded with an 8-cell Mk. 41 VLS located forward of the original Mk. 13 arm-type missile launcher.
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

Besides weapons, the ships are known to be capable to receive new upgrades for the combat management system, radar systems, and other combat electronics if necessary, as demonstrated by similar upgrades done by Australia, Turkey, Taiwan and Spain on their OHP-class ships.


Upgrade Cost:
The only issue here that will be detrimental for any Philippine Navy undertaking for OHP-class is the cost of upgrades and returning anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile systems to the downgraded ships. Below let us assume that the PN will only opt to improve the ship's anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons systems, and continue using the same sensors, combat management system and secondary weapons:

An 8-cell Mk. 41 VLS installed in an Adelaide-class frigate (Australian Oliver Hazard Perry-frigate derivative).
Photo taken from Wikimedia.

Mk. 41 VLS Tactical System:
Each Mk. 41 VLS will have 32 ESSM rounds quad-packed to 8 Mk.25 VLS canister.
- The 8-cell VLS system itself costed around $16.3 million dollars in a contract with Spain in 2006. It is expected that the current price would be higher now.
- Thailand paid $18 million in a contract involving 9 ESSM missile rounds, 3 Mk. 25 quad-pack canisters, 4 shipping containers, spares and repair parts, support and testing equipment, publications and technical documents, personnel training and training equipment, US government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics support services and other technical services related to the product.
- Additional requests for further ESSM may be cheaper on the average per missile, but MaxDefense estimates the deal for 32 missiles to be worth around $50-60 million.
- MaxDefense estimates for the entire Mk. 41 tactical VLS system with full-load 32 rounds of ESSM would cost around $80-90 million.

The Boeing RGM-84 Harpoon Blk. II anti-ship missile is the US Navy's foremost surface warfare missile.
Photo taken from SeaForces website.

Harpoon Missile:
Standard anti-ship missile load-out for frigates is at least 8 missiles. 
- A 2012 US order for Block II missiles and associated hardware went on average of $1.6 million per missile.
- The US, being the primary user, is expected to have complete knowledge and support system for the Harpoon missiles. The PN currently lacks this, and it is expected that the 1st order for Harpoon missile systems will probably cost a lot to include logistics support, training and technical services, spares and repair parts.
- A 2009 request from Egypt for 20 RGM-84L Harpoon Blk.II missiles, 5 4-shot missile batteries, spare and repair parts, and all other associated support mechanisms costing a total of $145 million. 
-Based on the Egyptian contract above, on average it would cost more than $60 million for each ship with 8 missiles and associated support and logistics package. This is reasonable considering the Philippine Navy is again a first time user of the type.

So just with the 2 missile systems, it would cost around $140-150 million per ship. 

Does the PN have other options? So far MaxDefense believes that other friendly countries can provide an alternative for the PN that would probably cost less than what the Americans have to offer. A budget of probably less than $100 million per ship using Israeli systems could make a possible PN Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate as capable as an American-upgraded one.

Israel's upcoming Barak-8 (left) and MF-STAR active phased-array radar system are good alternatives that can be used to upgrade PN ships, including possible OHP-class frigates. Besides Israel, South Korea also has some wares that are worth taking into consideration.
Photo taken from trishul-trident blog.

Only problem is, if the Americans would include clauses in the transfer contract to only upgrade the ship using American products and services. This is the same problem highlighted in the Hamilton-class frigates that the PN plans to upgrade in the near future.


Timeline and Availability:
Another problem seen by MaxDefense is the timeline of availability of the ships. So far the US government has not offered a single OHP-class frigate to the Philippine government, and offers and US Congressional approvals usually take a year or two to obtain. Transfer and training of crew to a US-spec OHP-class frigate would require at least 8 months to more than 1 year, using PN crew that has prior experience with the Gregorio del Pilar-class frigates. The complexity of the OHP-class for PN crew will require a longer training period as it needs to cover not just the usual operational conversion training, but also basic training especially for the weapons and sensors system operators. Bringing the ship for upgrades and modifications to increase capability, including the crew training to handle advanced systems would probably take another 8 months to 1 year based on conservative estimates. So that would be a total minimum of 3 years!

Would it be not better to instead purchase a new frigate, like the Incheon-class from South Korea, which costs almost the same and can be obtained in almost the same time as an upgraded 25 year-old OHP-class frigate?

So if the Philippine government would request for a ship or two during the visit of President Barack Obama this October, probably we could only see a partially upgraded OHP-class frigate in Philippine service by late 2016, or just after President Aquino's term.


Practicality:
So the question now is, would it be practical to have Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates in the Philippine Navy?

Based on the parameters above, MaxDefense believes that getting the frigate is not feasible, for the following reasons:
- Obtaining them as-is would render it a large gunboat similar to the current guise of the Gregorio del Pilar-class frigates with only anti-submarine warfare as its main focus. For its current capability the purchase and operating costs are too high.
- Not only is it expensive in its current guise, but it also lacks the endurance if employed as an offshore patrol vessel.
- Receiving them as-is and undertaking an upgrade program for it would cost too much as well, almost as much as a brand new light frigate with similar or even greater capability.
-  Not only will the upgrades cost too much, the time needed to complete the purchase from request until end of upgrade would also take too long, canceling the very reason why the PN should obtain used warships.


Alternatives:
As a short term goal, the Philippine government should try to deal with other friendly countries with frigates or corvettes that are scheduled for retirement but is capable enough in its current guise to not undertake immediate, lengthy and expensive upgrades. MaxDefense sees a number of countries that the Philippine government can turn to, like South Korea for its Pohang-class corvettes, Italy for its Maestrale, Soldati/Artigliere and Minerva-class ships, Germany for its F122-class frigates and Spain. The government should also continue in their push for capable assets that could be acquired cheap, like more Hamilton-class cutters to beef up naval presence and replace older PN assets. The viability of more Hamilton-class ships was discussed in earlier MaxDefense blogs.

With South Korea getting more Incheon-class frigates and FFX-II already in the horizon, the ROKN is expected to release some of the Pohang-class combat corvettes, which the Philippine government can obtain. These are simple, easy to use ships that can bridge knowledge to modern equipment while giving the PN enough capability than what it currently has.
Photo taken from militaryphotos.net

While obtaining used assets that could still be in service for several more years, the Philippine government must also invest in building new frigates and corvettes according to its naval white paper as a medium to long term solution in increasing naval capability. This must not be taken fore granted by the Philippine government if it is indeed serious in putting more value to defending the country's sovereignty and territory in the coming future without keeping the navy at bay due to lack of assets and support.


Is it a totally lost cause to have Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates?
Actually not yet.

We still don't know what the Americans will practically offer to the Philippine government in the next few months or years. If the Americans could provide a ship or two for free, including transfer, training, initial support, and at the same time provide a subsidized operating budget, then the Philippine government should say yes, as this would enable it to reduce the cost issues that is currently the main reason of it's impracticality with the Philippine Navy.

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