The year 2023 is the start of implementation the next phase of the Horizon series of military modernization procurement programming of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, which will run for five years until 2027.
So how is the Horizon 3 phase going so far as we reach the 9th month since the program started. What are the updates, challenges and issues that it faces to make it implementable?
As we restart our blog entries, we will first focus on what will be the basis of the Philippines' defense program in the next 5 years.
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| The JAS-39 Gripen which was selected foe the PAF's MRF requirements and is now being neogitated with Sweden. Photo credits to original source. |
The Horizon 3 Phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program
The Horizon 3 phase, the biggest and final phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program's 5-year Horizon series, is expected to bring the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to a level capable of providing a minimum credible territorial defense posture.
The phase will also allow the AFP to have almost all the basic necessities and capabilities that it needs, and will provide the foundation for it to grow to an even more capable force in the future.
By the end of the Horizon 3 phase, the AFP should have already caught up and gained the knowledge base, experience base, capability base, materiel and doctrine of a modern fighting force equal or greater than its contemporaries in the region, despite the minimum size of formation and equipment that it possesses.
Future procurement programs after Horizon 3 will be meant to reinforce the basics, expand the quantity of its assets and units, gradually keep up with the future technology and capabilities it many need.
Unsurprisingly, the Horizon 3 phase will be sub-divided into several phases jist like the Horizon 1 and 2 phases. In this case there will be 3 phases, all of which were submitted for approval to Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. By then AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Andres Centino and DND OIC Senior Usec. Carlito Galvez.
Due to the numerous requirements being sought by the AFP and the funding challenges that it already knew would be expected, the AFP created its shopping list according to prioritization.
The one described by the DND last April 2023 appears to be the Phase 1 (aka Priority Phase) which was said to be worth Php500 billion.
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| An example of an MLRS system, the Elbit PULS from Israel. Photo credits to Elbit Systems. |
First Phase / Priority Phase:
The Phase 1, also known as the "Priority Phase", is obviously meant to give priority to the most sought-after capabilities of the AFP, which can be considered as the core capabilities that it wanted to have regardless if the Philippine Government can fund the entire Horizon 3 program or not.
Due to the secret nature of the shopping list, it is difficult to confirm if our current information is the the current information. Thus, we cannot divulge the actual breakdown and can only speculate based on the information that we have.
What is sure is that the Priority Phase shopping list is designed to provide the AFP with capabilities that will support its Archipelagic and Littoral Defense Strategy which is centered on enhancing the AFP's capability to detect and identify threats, provide minimum defense to the Philippine mainland, the Kalayaan Island Group and its littoral environment including its Exclusive Economic Zone.
This means emphasis on Anti-Access / Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities that focuses on firepower delivery within 200 nautical miles, as well as surveillance and targeting capabilities to support such capability.
This will include the following capabilities:
* Further improvement of the Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Information/Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (C4ISTAR) capabilities of the AFP General Headquarters and all three service branches;
* Air Defense and Air Surveillance Radar Systems for the Philippine Air Force;
* Land/Shore-Launched Anti-Ship Missile Systems for the Philippine Army and Philippine Marine Corps;
* Land/Shore based Rocket and Missile Artillery Systems for the Philippine Army and Philippine Marine Corps;
* Combat Aircraft for air identification, air defense and anti-shipping operations for the Philippine Air Force;
* Offshore and Littoral naval assets for the Philippine Navy;
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| Additional frigates are expected to be procured by the Philippine Navy. Photo credits to HHI. |
* Ground-Based Air Defense Systems for the Philippine Air Force, Philippine Army, and Philippine Marine Corps;
* Improvement and upgrade of current capabilities for all the 3 service branches
* Carry-over projects from the Horizon 2 Priority Phase and 2nd List of Horizon 2 phase that were not implemented as of 2023.
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| The Rafael SPYDER Philippines Air Defense System (SPADS) of the Philippine Air Force. More are expected to be acquired. Photo credits to AFP. |
Based on the previous discussions we already had in our social media pages and with our extension Philippine Defense Resource, we can assume that the following are to be expected:
Additional air defense radars, either from Japan, Israel or the United States; additional Brahmos anti-ship coastal defense missile batteries, multiple-launch rocket systems like the Elbit PULS, Hanwha K239 Chunmoo and M142 HIMARS; fighter aircraft like the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen or F-16 Viper; additional frigates and fast attack interdiction crafts; addition Rafael SPADS and introduction of shorter-ranged surface-to-air missile systems; and upgrades for the Jose Rizal-class frigates, Tarlac-class LPDs, the upcoming HDC-3100 corvettes, the FA-50PH Fighting Eagle light combat aircraft, and others.
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| The Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen, which are just needing MoU ratification to proceed the procurement. Photo credits to VanderWolf Images |
Second Phase:
Except for the undersea warfare capability, this phase will mostly involved increasing the quantity of what the AFP already has from the previous Horizons 1 and 2, and Horizon 3 Priority Phase.
This is to complete previous acquisitions that were made in smaller numbers due to funding issues, and will allow the AFP to reach the optimal capability level that was not reached during earlier procurements. These include the folllwing capabilities:
* Submarines and development of the Submarine Force for the Philippine Navy;
* Aircraft-based air surveillance capabilities for the Philippine Air Force;
* Additional Maritime Patrol Aircraft for the Philippine Air Force and/or Philippine Navy;
* Additional Ground Based Air Defense Missile Systems, Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Systems for the three service branches;
* Additional combat fixed and rotary-wing aircraft for air defense, close air support and light strike aircraft for the Philippine Air Force;
* Additional air and sea transport assets for the Philippine Air Force and Philippine Navy;
* Additional amphibious assault capabilities for the Philippine Marine Corps
We can easily assume that the means the acquisition of submarines, additional fighter aircraft, A-29B Super Tucano light attack aircraft, T129B ATAK attack helicopters, ATR-72-600MPA maritime patrol aircraft, SPYDER air defense systems and Brahmos anti-ship coastal defense batteries, C-130H/J, C-295W, NC-212i transport aircraft, S-70i Black Hawk and Subaru Bell 412EPX combat utility helicopters, landing and amphibious assault ships and crafts, and KAAV-7A1 amphibious assault vehicles.
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| Among those possibly eyed for the Phase 2 of Horizon 3 are the acquisition of Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft (top) and Submarines (above). Photos for reference only. |
The implementation of this phase will depend again on the performance of the Philippine economy as well as the political will of the Marcos Administration to push forward its defense goals as soon as it can.
Third Phase:
This phase appears to be more of a "just trying our luck" phase although MaxDefense Philippines believes that it is achievable to reach as long as there is seriousness in the Philippine Government to invest in the country's defense.
It is a further continuation of Phase 2 acquisition plans, again with emphasis on A2/AD capabilities to push back movement of enemy forces away from the Philippine 200nmi Exclusive Economic Zone and territorial water/airspace.
Focus will be more on the following:
* Ground Based Air Defense Systems
* Land/Shore Based Anti-Ship Missile Systems
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To summarize, the proposed Horizon 3 Phases 1 to 3 will be worth more than a Trillion Pesos, which is very far higher than the Horizon 1 Phase at around Php130 billion, and Horizon 2 at Php430 billion.
Our concern is on the ability of the Philippine Government to fund this considering the slowing economy, continued disinterest of foreign investors in the Philippines, focus on infrastructure development, and presence of pro-China lawmakers and government officials that block the ability to increase funding for the AFP Modernization Program.
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| There is growing interest on the HIMARS system and could be among those fornacquisition under Horizon 3 phase. |
MaxDefense Philippines' Opinion:
Based on what is in the submitted shopping list, we believe that it was not properly given much attention, time and effort to really determine what the AFP needs to improve its defense capabilities in the face of current and future thrrats that it may face.
The capabilities brought forward are correct, but it appears that the balance is notpresent on what are given priority.
The strategy that these proposed weapon systems will be providing appears to be too passive. These can only react and become useful once a shooting war starts. And while they can be a good deterence during peacetime, these assets are not really useful to conduct other missions during peacetime or to address China's salami-slicing strategy of slowly moving forward without firing a shot.
How about during peacetime? Land-based missile systems cannot conduct air and sea patrol, cannot conduct intelligence gathering and surveillance, cannot show the flag in our areas of interest and territories, cannot conduct search and rescue or HADR roles or support HADR operations, and cannot be used during exercises overseas or beyond their delopyment area.
The Horizon 3 shopping list also indicates that the AFP may not have consulted its allies and strategic security partners which is an essential factor considering our country's security strategy is anchored on having US forces onboard during a shooting war, and having US and other partners around when when deterring potential enemies during peacetime.
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| The Brahmos Cshore based anti-ship missile system, which the Philippines is acquiring. More are planned in the future. Photo cresits to Economic Times India. |
Are the capabilities being acquired in sync with what our allies and partners can and/or cannot provide as part of military assistance packages and to the defense strategies to be employed? Will there be too much redundancy between Philippine and US forces' capabilities that a huge gap on other needed capabilities twould hapoen? Would it be better to have a balance to address these gaps as well?
Balance is key to the planning of assets. While A2/AD is important, too much emphasis on it will place other capabilities in jeopardy.
"Back to the Drawing Board"
As of this writing, we were informed by defense and military sources that the In-Principle Approval of the Horizon 3 Phase 1 procurement list has not yet been approved as it is still being reviewed by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) before Pres. Marcos will give his final approval.
Defense Sec. Gilbert Teodoro Jr. also confirmed as of 12 September 2023 that he already told AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. to review the Horizon 3 procurement program to make sure it addresses the current and future defense requirements of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and is well coordinated with discussions with allies and security partners.
His recent statement during the Senate hearing on the 2024 Defense Budget confirmed his disappointment on the Horizon 3 shopping list, and gave hints of what he believe should be done.
Paraphrasing what he said: "If we only buy 12 fighter aircraft, what's the point? We should be buying a minimum of 30 to 40 fighters. Other countries procure fighter aircraft in bulk: 70, 80, 90 fighters."
In the meantime, we believe the Philippine Government can focus on addressing the funding backlog for projects from the Horizon 1 and Horizon 2 phases that are not yet funded and are already delayed in implementation. As of the DND's 2022 reports, less than Php150 billion have been funded out of the more than Php400 billion required for Horizon 2 phase, with many delayed projects proposed to be included in the 1st Phase of Horizon 3.
There are already signs that despite the Horizon 3 phase's procuirement plans not being approved yet, the balances from Horizon 2 are moving forward slowly espeically that Defense Sec. Gilbert Teodoro Jr.'s appointment has been confirmed by the Commission on Appointments on 13 September 2023
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First edit and release: 14 September 2023
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines
