Philippine Navy to Acquire Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft under Horizon 2

As part of the Horizon 2 Priority Projects phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, the Department of National Defense (DND) and the Philippine Navy (PN) has started the bidding process for the acquisition of one (1) Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft.

The Approved Budget for Contract (ABC) for this project is at Php1,333,333,333.33 (US$24.69 million based on US$1=Php54), and bidders are expected to deliver the aircraft within 730 days (2 years) from signing of Contract and receiving the Notice to Proceed (NTP).

The end user for the aircraft is the PN’s Naval Air Group (NAG), which currently operates the Beechcraft C-90 King Air & Britten-Norman BN-2 Islander surveillance and utility aircraft, and Cessna 172 Skyhawk trainer aircraft, aside from helicopters.

The Viking Air DHC-6 Twin Otter Guardian 400, which MaxDefense believes is the basis of the technical specs of the project.
Photo taken from Viking Air website.

Requirements:

Based on the Bid Documents and Technical Specifications released by the DND for the project,  the aircraft can be considered as a brand new, Twin-Engine, multipurpose seaplane which is large enough to be capable of maritime surveillance, search & rescue, and Casualty Evacuation (CASEVAC) and Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC).

The aircraft itself should have the following features:
- Twin Turbine Engined;
- Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) capable;
- With a cruising speed of at least 150 knots in full mission configuration;
- Payload of at least 1,500 kilograms in amphibian configuration;
- Endurance of at least 6 hours;
- Range of at least 900 nautical miles:
- Can take-off and land at Sea State 3 condition

For Maritime Surveillance, the aircraft is to be equipped with the following:

a. Electro-Optical / Infra-Red sensor – retractable to protect from sea landings, capable of multi-sensor imaging and lasing, and in high definition output.

b. Radar – Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar (ISAR) using X-Band Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology capable of surface, air, and weather surveillance, with a maximum range of 120
nautical miles, and weighs not more than 40 kilograms.

c. Fitted for but not with Tactical Data Link 16, and permit 2-way exchange of tactical data with other TDL-equipped AFP units.

d. Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) / Selective Identification Feature (SIF)

e. Bubble-type Windows on both sides – to allow eyeball observation, including suitable use of DSLR camera and digital handheld video cameras.



As a Utility or Passenger Aircraft, the aircraft should have the following:

a. 4 Stretchers for MEDEVAC missions;

b. Seats for at least 19 passengers excluding the pilots:

c. Detachable Static Line for Para jump operations.

The supplier is also required to provide Integrated Logistics Support (ILS), including spares for 1200 hours of operation (an equivalent of 3 years worth of flying hours), Support Equipment and Structures including the tools, ground support equipment, and even the aircraft’s hangar that can accommodate 3 aircraft of the same model at any given time, and conversion training for pilots and ground crew.


PAF Search & Rescue Seaplanes Version 2?

Based on the requirements for the Philippine Navy’s Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft, it is almost exactly the same as the requirements made by the Philippine Air Force a few years ago for their proposed Search & Rescue (SAR) Seaplane, which was later on shelved due to funding diverted to other requirements of the PAF during the Horizon 1 phase of the RAFPMP.

Even the budget for this PN project, which is Php1,333,333,333.33, is exactly the same budget allocated by the PAF for each seaplane.

Dimension size, range and endurance, engine requirements, and other aircraft feature requirements are also almost if not exactly the same as the PAF’s. The radar and EO/IR sensor requirements are also almost the same.

Previosuly, MaxDefense posted a blog entry regarding the PAF’s Search and Rescue Seaplane acquisition project, which can be accessed on the link below:

“Details and Analysis of the PAF's Search and Rescue Seaplane Acquisition Project” – first posted on 16 November 2013.


You can see from the blog entry above and from the current requirements that there are not much differences from each other's requirements, both for the platform/aircraft and the onboard equipment. And it seems that it’s also pointing to the same aircraft as before, which MaxDefense believes is the Viking Air DHC-6 Twin Otter Guardian 400.

There isn’t too many available amphibian aircraft in the market that fits the requirements provided by the PN’s technical specifications. Other minor features indicated in the specs, like a need for a lavatory, makes it more specifically pointed at the Twin Otter Guardian 400.


The Viking Air Twin Otter Guardian 400:

This is a special missions version of the standard DHC-6 Twin Otter Series 400 currently being manufactured by Viking Air of Canada.

The Twin Otter Guardian 400 without the amphibian floats.
Photo taken from Viking Air website.

It has all the bells and whistles that the Philippine Navy is looking for based on the aircraft specs it made publicly available.

The aircraft itself is powered by 2 turbine engines, has a surveillance range of 970 nautical miles (vs 900 nautical miles), and surveillance time on station of 7 hours (vs 6 hours).  And aside from having floats to make it amphibian, the landing gear can be configured also to use standard wheels.

It has a 19-passenger seating (meets requirements), a lavatory, and can be configured to carry up to 8 stretchers (vs 4 stretchers).

A typical cabin configuration of the Twin Otter Guardian 400 in martime surveillance mission profile.

It is equipped with a CarteNav AIMS-ISR Data Management System that controls and integrates the mission sensors, which includes the Selex Seaspray 500E AESA surface search radar, and a retractable EO/IR sensor using either the FLIR PolyTech UltraForce 350 or L3 Wescam MX-15HDi EO/IR sensor equipment. An Automatic Identification System (AIS) can also be installed as an option (required by PN), and several other features.

One of the Data Management System console aboard the Twin Otter Guardian 400.
Photo taken from Viking Air's website.

The only problem we see here is the aircraft being from Canada, which could be an issue after what happened to the G2G deal between the DND and Canadian Commercial Corporation. The export license may be an issue, considering that the aircraft is military in nature although it is obviously not armed and cannot be used to kill people.

But if this pushes through without too much drama, this opens up the window again for defense acquisitions from Canada, although probably limited only to unarmed systems.



Impact on the Naval Air Group:

Once this aircraft comes into service, this would effectively become the Naval Air Group’s most capable maritime patrol aircraft, considering that the plan to upgrade their existing Beechcraft C-90 King Air fleet by installing surveillance equipment is has not moved beyond the planning stage yet as of this writing, while MaxDefense believes that there is only 1 of their BN-2 Islander aircraft that was upgraded with a limited maritime surveillance capability.

One of the 5 Beehcraft C-90 King Air of the Naval Air Group. MaxDefense have reasons to believe that if more of these birds can be provided by Japan, the NAG might convert some of them into ELINT platforms
Credits to owner of photo.

It would also lay the groundwork for the acquisition of more Amphibian Aircraft for the PN-NAG, considering that despite only 1 was requested in this Horizon 2 phase, originally the PN-NAG was requesting for at least 3 aircraft worth Php4 billion (still based on a budget of 1 aircraft for Php1.33 billion). The PN-NAG is targeting to have 6 aircraft by the end of Horizon 3 phase, which means up to 5 more will be acquired.

Together with the Beechcraft C-90, these will form the Philippine Navy’s Maritime Patrol Aircraft fleet covering short-medium range requirements of the AFP, while the Philippine Air Force will cover the long range requirement using their still pending Long Range Patrol Aircraft and their upcoming Hermes 900 unmanned aerial systems.

The disadvantage of these air assets are their lack of capability in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), as well as munitions delivery capability. It is expected that these assets will act as eyes and ears for the fleet, as well as part of the overall AFP C4ISTAR system interconnecting all AFP units into a more cohesive fighting force.


Procurement and Bidding:

The bid opening is currently scheduled on 16 October 2018, although this could change depending on request by potential bidders for time extension or further clarifications. But due to the requirements leading too much for a specific product, MaxDefense doesn’t expect a lot of drama coming out from this project.

Viking Air is apparently represented in the Philippines by Asian Aerospace Corporation (which requested for the bid documents based on PhilGEPS page of the project), although previously, Viking Air appears to have made their own representation during the PAF SAR Seaplane Acquisition Project.
With the project still in the pre-bidding stage, MaxDefense expects a lot of updates coming out in the next several weeks leading up to an award. Hopefully, the DND would at least release the Notice of Award to the lowest calculated bidder before the end of the year.


Summary:

1. Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft

End User: Philippine Navy (Naval Air Group)
Modernization Phase: Horizon 2 Phase of RAFPMP
ABC: 1,333,333,333.33
SARO Release: SARO-BMB-D-18-0013736, released 18 June 2018
Winning Proponent: still for bidding
Contract Price: N/A
First post by MaxDefense: 21 September 2018



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UPDATES:
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20 February 2019:

MaxDefense learned that the Public Bidding for the Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft acquisition for the Philippine Navy FAILED. This is due to no bidders submitted a bid when it closed last October 2018.

The worrying part is that the Department of National Defense (DNd), which is undertaking the bidding process on behalf of the Philippine Navy, has not reopened the project for another re-bidding.

Re-Bidding is expected to happen since the country's procurement laws under RA9184 only allows going into negotiated procurement after the DND fails again in another public bidding attempt.

The decision to go for public bidding is actually a funny decision by the DND, since it is very clear that the Philippine Navy is after a specific aircraft, which is the de Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter from Viking Air. They are being represented in the Philippines by only a single company.

Should they have just went for a negotiated mode of procurement, this project should already be rolling by now.


Just for the sake of discussion, is the Philippine Navy really urgently needing to acquire this, considering only a single aircraft is involved? 

While it is highly possible that this is a prelude to the acquisition of several more (as the PN is looking at having at least 6 of them for a squadron) and that this unit is to prepare them for it, there are several projects in the Philippine Navy that MaxDefense and several of it's contributors believe to be underfunded. 

Among them are the following:
1. Del Pilar-class Frigate Upgrade Project - MaxDefense was told by people involved that the budget is too low that even the cheapest product being offered many not meet the requirements!!

2. Offshore Patrol Vessel acquisition - the mission modules needed for other important missions like minehunting may not be funded as the project's budget is already too tight for additional items. Also, the additional budget may allow the PN to specify a better sensor suite (i.e. a 3D radar instead of 2D) for all 6 ships.

3. Frigate acquisition (Horizon 1 Jose Rizal-class) - is the PN not considering the installation of 2 units of 30mm machine gun system instead of just having 1 unit per ship? Normally 1 gun system covers 180 degrees of the ship, and 2 are needed to cover most, if not all sides of the ship from surface threats like small suicide boats. Why not install 1 gun system each at port and starboard side, just like what they did on the BRP Ramon Alcaraz?

These are just questions that we hope the Philippine Navy can see, as we believe these proposals could be also in the minds of some of their officials.

MaxDefense will provide more updates on this Multi-Purpose Amphibian Aircraft acquisition project as more information comes in.

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5 Upcoming Projects for the Philippine Army's Mechanized Infantry Division under the RAFPMP Horizon 2 Phase

Last 20 September 2018 during the 12th Activation Anniversary of the Philippine Army Mechanized Infantry Division (MID), Philippine Pres. Rodrigo Duterte announced in his speech that the MID is bound to benefit from 5 modernization projects worth around Php13 billion under the Horizon 2 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program (RAFPMP).

The MID is a major unit that needs massive modernization, due to their lack of modern assets and capabilities compared to infantry units that can be addressed faster due to cost considerations. Being an material-dependent unit, the MID was left behind as modernization budgets from decades ago was not enough to allow the acquisition of expensive to acquire and sustain armored and mechanized assets, resulting to the MID's fleet remaining less capable than contemporaries in the region.

The Horizon 1 and 2 phases of the RAFPMP actually addresses these shortcomings, with a modest upgrade plan that would allow the MID and the Philippine Army in general to transition to a more mechanized army in the future.



MID Projects Under The Horizon 2 Phase Priority Projects:

Pres. Duterte mentioned that there are 5 Horizon 2 projects that will benefit the MID. And these are the projects that he was referring to, contrary to claims by fake defense pages:


1. Light/Medium Tank Acquisition Project

This involves the acquisition of a battalion worth of at least 44 units of tanks or tank destroyers with an Approved Budget for Contract (ABC) of Php9,484,332,000.00. In our previous blog entry and Facebook posts, MaxDefense mentioned that the project will be divided into the acquisition of two different platforms sharing the same gun and turret. One platform will be tracked and can be considered as a light or medium tank, while the other platform is wheeled 8x8 armored vehicle that appears to be similar to a mobile gun system or a tank destroyer. The tank gun will be at least a 105mm caliber capable of being used against other tanks and armored vehicles, soft and hardened structures, and bunkers.

MaxDefense expects that out of the 44 units to be acquired in total, around 28 to 30 (equivalent to 2 tank companies) will be using the tracked platform, while around 14 units (equivalent to a tank company) will be for the wheeled variant. 

MaxDefense also mentioned that among those being considered for the tracked tank are the Hanwha Defense Systems K21-105 from South Korea, the FNSS-PT Pindad Kaplan MT/Harimau Hitam medium tank made by a Turkish-Indonesian venture, the Otokar Tulpar from Turkey, and a European model, which MaxDefense found out to be offered by Israel's Elbit Systems. Apparently Rosoboronexport of Russia also offered their BMP-3 IFV and T-90 main battle tank, while Ukraine also tried to offer their T-84 Yatagan main battle tank.

For the wheeled tank destroyer, among those considered are the Hyundai Rotem K808 of South Korea, FNSS Pars III 8x8 and Otokar Arma 8x8 from Turkey, and another European model offered by Elbit Systems of Israel.

MaxDefense received information lately that there was already a decision made by Senior Leaders of the on the procurement process, and it won't be undergoing public bidding but will be acquired instead through a negotiated Government-to-Government (G2G) deal with a particular country. MaxDefense will discuss about this update in future blog entries of posts.

Three of the offers made to the Philippine Army's Light/Medium Tank requirement include the FNSS-PT Pindad Kaplan MT (Harimau Hitam) medium tank (top), the Hanwha Defense Systems K21-105 light tank (middle), and the Otokar Tulpar 105 Light Tank (above).
Credits to owners of all photos.

2. Wheeled Armored Personnel Carrier Acquisition Project:

This is another project that was discussed by MaxDefense in the previous blog we posted last March 2018, and involves the acquisition of around 28 units of new wheeled armored personnel carriers, possibly a 6x6, with an ABC of Php 2,265,200,000.00, and will become the initial acquisition of new wheeled APCs in the future. Initially planned to be equipped with a manned or unmanned turret armed with a 30mm autocannon, the budget appears to be not enough and the specifications were changed to just use a manned turret for a 12.7mm heavy machine gun and a grenade launcher.

Originally the plan was to use this project to upgrade the weapons and mechanical/electrical systems of existing wheeled APCs of the MID including the V-150 and Simba fleets. But the plan changed due to availability issues, and probably because of the reality that the V-150 and Simba fleets are already worn down and needs replacement soon.

The project is closely related to the Wheeled Tank/Tank Destroyer acquisition project as the potential suppliers for both projects are the same companies offering the same family of platform. Based on our previous blog, the offers include the Hyundai Rotem K806 6x6 from South Korea, FNSS Pars III 6x6 and Otokar Arma 6x6 from Turkey, and an offer based on a European-made 6x6 armored vehicle by Elbit Systems of Israel. Other offers made known to MaxDefense later on include the PT Pindad Pansir Anoa 6x6 from Indonesia, Czechoslovak Group's Pandur II 6x6 and (Nexter) Titus 6x6 from Czech Republic, Gaia Automotive's Amir 4x4 and 6x6 MRAP from Israel, and the Kamaz Typhoon-K 6x6 from Russia's Rosoboronexport, and Ukraine's BTR-4 8x8.

This project is still in the pre-procurement stage, and is still being determined on how the project will proceed and what procurement process will be used, although MaxDefense expects a significant movement to happen on this project once the Philippine Army decides on the wheeled tank/tank destroyer that it will acquire.

More of  the Light/Medium Tank acquisition of Wheeled APC Acquisition projects can be read from our previous blog entry with the link below:

"Philippine Army's Planned Acquisition of Tanks and Armoured Assets for Horizon 2 Phase" - posted on 24 March 2018

Three of just several offers made to the Philippine Army for their Wheeled APC Acquisition Project. The Otokar Arma 6x6 (top), FNSS PARS III 6x6 (middle), and Czechoslovak Group's Pandur II 6x6 (above).
Credits to owners of all photos above.

3. M113 Upgrade to Armored Mortar Carrier:

This is an upcoming project that MaxDefense expects to be awarded soon. The project involves supply of 15 units of upgraded M113A2+ tracked armored vehicles installed with a 120mm mortar system, to provide mechanized and infantry forces with quick firing indirect fire support in the battlefield.

The ABC for this project is Php1,094,570,175.00, and is to be acquired through a negotiated Government-to-Government (G2G) deal with Israel, through Elbit Systems Land & C4I, which offered to supply upgraded M113A2 installed with the their Soltam Cardom 120mm Mortar System. The project is still in its Pre-award and Post Qualification Inspection stage, and if everything goes well, MaxDefense expects the project to be awarded to Elbit Systems before the year ends.

This is actually the 2nd time that the Philippine Army is procuring self propelled Armored Mortar Carriers, the first one being the ongoing M113 Firepower Upgrade project, which is a Horizon 1 project awarded also to Elbit Systems Land & C4I and involves the upgrade of 5 existing M113A2 to Mortar Carriers with the Soltam Cardom 81mm Mortar System (which can be upgraded later on to take the larger Soltam Cardom 120mm Mortar System).

Elbit Systems is poised to be awarded with the contract for the M113 Upgrade to Armored Mortar Carrier project if they pass the Post Qualification Inspections that is expected to happen soon.
Photo for reference only, credits to owner of the photo.

4. M113 APC Firepower Upgrade Project:

Another upgrade project involving the existing M113 fleet of the Philippine Army, the project involves the acquisition and installation of 25mm manned turrets for around 32 units of the MID's M113A2 tracked armored vehicles. The ABC for this project is worth Php288,000,000.00.

Originally the plan was to acquire 7.62mm M163 Miniguns and installing them on armored cupola shields or manned turrets, but it was found to be excessively wasteful of ammunition, and instead a more powerful gun in a manned turret will be used instead, converting these armored personnel carriers into infantry fighting vehicles.

This is also in the pre-procurement phase at the moment, and is expected only move forward probably by either late 2018 or early 2019.

Elbit's UT25 turret previously supplied to the Philippine Army's M113A2+ armored vehicles actually have a manned version, which is called the MT25. It can use the same turret design and gun as the UT30, although it won't have the remote system that is present on the UT25.
Photo credited to the late John K Chua, a MaxDefense community member.

5. Tank Gunnery Simulator Acquisition Project:

While this project doesn't involve an actual armored vehicle, it is equally important to the MID as it will be used to train future tank crew using an almost realistic, computer-based simulation system similar to those used by aircraft pilots.

The ABC for this project is Php36,200,000.00 and involves the acquisition of two (2) Tank Gunnery Simulators, which should be compatible to the light/medium tank that the MID will acquire. Thus, this would be dependent on the success of the Light/Medium Tank acquisition project and will only move forward once a decision on that project has been made.

No updates yet on this project although it should be among those for implementation in the coming months. MaxDefense expects that the delivery of this system should be made before the actual tanks, considering this would be use to train the future tank crews of the MID.

The example above is the one used by the Singaporean Army, which can be configured also to different armored vehicles and tanks used by the enduser.
Photo taken from StraitsTimes website.

MaxDefense's Observations:

In all projects, it is worth noting that the Israelis actually have a strong chance of bagging them all due to the recent pronouncements by Pres. Duterte and Defense Sec. Delfin Lorenzana on preference to acquire arms from Israel. And coincidentally, all 5 projects have entries made by Israeli companies with the assistance from the Israeli Ministry of Defense - SIBAT.

But it would also be dependent on the platform to be acquired. It is expected that, to reduce logistics and support issues, the Tracked Tank and Wheeled Tank Destroyer could be awarded to a single proponent, which means the vehicles, turrets and guns would be supplied by the same companies and enjoy commonality and compatibility. The same is true with the Wheeled Tank Destroyer and the Wheeled APC, considering both projects can use the same platform, except that the tank destroyer will be in 8x8 configuration while the APC can be in the cheaper 6x6 platform.

Elbit also has an advantage with regards to supplying the manned turrets for the M113, considering that MID already uses their UT25 unmanned turret, and the manned version MT25 uses several parts that is similar to the UT25. Again, logistics, maintenance, and training can be simplified, while compatibility would be met.

The surprise offer actually came Ukraine, which came in later than the rest of the contending proponents, and has said to have offered an interesting package which involves their T-84 Yatagan main battle tank, said to be priced competitively as the light/medium tanks offered by other proponents but being in a higher class on its own. Bigger, better armor, more firepower. But they came in too late that if their offer is considered, the project to acquire tanks would be delayed by more than 1 year. Besides, Ukraine has a history of not meeting delivery schedules and poor after-sales support, as in the case of Thailand's T-84 Oplot acquisition which is delayed by several years, prompting the Thai Army to cancel succeeding orders and instead acquiring the Chinese VT4 main battle tank.

Russia is another supplier that is being considered, but appears to be less appreciated by the people in the MID and the Philippine Army in general.




As the projects are already either ongoing, or lined-up for implementation, MaxDefense will provide updates on these projects either here or in a separate blog, or through our Facebook community page. MaxDefense expects updates especially on the Mortar Carrier acquisition very soon, being the project in the most advanced stage of procurement.

MaxDefense thanks its sources for providing timely and surprisingly accurate information for us to provide the general public. MaxDefense intentionally did not include information that may be considered to create negative effect on the security of the AFP in general. 

For more information regarding the speech of Pres. Duterte, please refer to the video below, credits to RTV Malacanang's Youtube page.

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Philippine Navy's 2nd New Frigate to Conduct its First Steel Cutting Ceremonies

After a long break on discussions regarding the Philippine Navy's upcoming future frigates being built by Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) under the Frigate Acquisition Project (FAP) of the Horizon 1 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program (RAFPMP), there are some important updates on the construction works of the warships.

The scale models of the two future frigates of the Philippine Navy, as provided by HHI to PN.
Photos provided exclusively to MaxDefense by one of our contributor.

According to official documents from the Philippine Navy (PN) and Department of National Defense (DND), the 2nd frigate, called internally by HHI as hull P160, should be scheduled to have its First Steel Cutting Ceremony tomorrow, 17 September 2018 at HHH's shipyard in South Korea. That is if there are no changes and problems encountered by HHI, or if the DND does not request to move the date as defense officials are currently busy on the aftermath of Typhoon Ompong / Mangkhut which may affect their attendance. No word though on who will represent the Philippines although it is expected that officials from the DND and PN would be there. So far the update was given only very recently, so we expect that HHI may not have any problems, and if DND doesn'ask for a schedule change, there is no other reason for the ceremony to not push through on 17 September 2018 as planned.

Photo was taken during the 1st frigate P159's First Steel Cutting Ceremony held in HHI's Shipyard in South Korea last 01 May 2018. A similar event will happen on 17 September 2018 for the 2nd frigate P160.
Photo taken from BusinessKorea website.

Meanwhile, the 1st frigate which is internally called by HHI as P159, is sheduled to have its Keel Laying Ceremonies on 16 October 2018.

Last May 2018, MaxDefense mentioned in a wall post that the 2nd Frigate's First Steel Cutting Ceremony is scheduled on September 2018. This means HHI's construction of the 2nd frigate is on schedule, and may reflect on HHI's accomplishments on the 1st frigate, as the production line is dependent on the accomplishments on the construction of the 1st frigate P159.

The scale model of the PN's future frigate as provided by HHI to the Philippine Navy.
Photo shared exclusively to MaxDefense by one of our contributor.

So far MaxDefense received information that several of the blocks of the 1st frigate P159 are completed, while many more are almost done, or will be done by the time keep laying starts next month. PN reports that HHI is confident that HHI will meet the scheduled Keel Laying Ceremony by 18 October 2018.

MaxDefense will provide updates on the First Steel Cutting of P160, as we expect news to be coming out days after the event. The same is also true on the Keel Laying Ceremony of 2nd frigate P159 on October 2018.

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First Hermes 450 UAV for the Philippine Air Force Scheduled to Arrive Soon

It is an exciting time for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as the Horizon 2 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program (RAFPMP) has finally come early this year. But what is even more exciting is that fruits of the program can be had earlier than expected. This, considering  defense contracts of select few projects under the Horizon 2 phase were only signed a few months ago.

Actually, this is the air asset that was suppose to arrive on August 2018. This blog entry was pushed back as MaxDefense found out from sources from several government agencies and the military, that the Department of Budget Management was delayed in releasing the funds, thus the manufacturer cannot deliver as per original schedule.

The mystery aircraft is no other than the Elbit Systems Hermes 450 medium altitude long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (MALE UAV), which is part of the Hermes 450 Unmanned Aerial System (UAS).

This is the actual Hermes 450 UAV that is bound for the Philippine Air Force, as shown during a demonstration and inspection in Israel recently. It would be applied with PAF colors and markings prior to delivery hopefully within the year.
Thanks to our source for allowing this photo to be posted in this blog entry.

The Hermes 450 MALE UAS:

The Elbit Systems Hermes 450 MALE UAS is one of the latest MALE UAS models being offered by Elbit Systems of Israel, and was designed to be lightweight but with high payload capacity, high performance payloads, minimum operator load, a highly autonomous system, with full redundancy design for safety, with future growth capacity, mobility and rapid deployment, and high maintainability.

It is capable of providing wide range of missions in support of intelligence collection, combat operations, search and rescue, homeland defense and security including low intensity conflicts and peacetime operations.

The system provides Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) mssions based on Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) method. This is focused on the operation of the Electro-Optical Infra-Red (EO/IR) payload which is capable of day and night operations.

It is also capable of providing support of firing units, which can be integrated to battlefield systems of offensive units like artillery, armored units, fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, naval vessels, etc), the Hermes 450 can provide accurate target reports, monitoring of engagements, detecting fall of short and providing calculated firing corrections, and assessing effectiveness of engagement via Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) capability.

Aside from Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) capability, the Hermes 450 is also capable of carrying other sensors include Synthetic Aperture Radar, Ground Moving Target Indicator, Medium Power Radar, and Automatic Identification System. Electronic Intelligence (ELINT), Electronic Warfare (EW), Communication Intelligence (COMINT) and COMMJAM payloads are also possible to increase the UAV system's overall capability in support of battlefield operations.

The basic Hermes 450 Unmanned Aerial System is composed of the following elements:

1. The Hermes 450 Unammed Air Vehicle (UAV) - which is the actual UAV;
2. Payload - which may include the EO/IR system;
3. Universal Ground Control Station (UGCS);
4. Ground Data Terminal (GDT);
5. Ground Support Equipment - which may include testing equipment, facilities, transport and infrastructure.

What a Ground Control Station may look like, which controls the Hermes 450 for flight operations, data gathering, and system monitoring.
Photo taken from Airforce Technology's website.

MaxDefense will be using open sources for its blog despite the availability of actual database on the system's capability, for security reasons:

The aerial vehicle is 6.1 meters long, has a wingspan of around 10.5 meters, a maximum take-off weight of 450 kilograms, and has a maximum payload weight of 150 kilograms. It is powered by a UAV Engines Limited R802/902(W) Wankel engine with an output of 39KW.

It also has a cruising speed of 130 kilometers per hour, and a top speed of 176 kilometers per hour, maximum range of 300 kilometers, although depending on the line of sight conditions, a safe range of 150 kilometers from the UGCS is advised, although this can be extended depending on UGCS configuration. It has a maximum endurance of between 14 to 17 hours depending on payload configuration, while having a maximum operating altitude of 16,000 feet above sea level.

The Hermes 450 is currently being operated by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), as well as other export markets like the Azerbaijani Air Force, Brazilian Air Force, Georgian Air Force, Mexican Air Force, the US Border Patrol. It is also used by other ASEAN militaries including the Republic of Singapore Air Force, and the Royal Thai Army which received their Hermes 450 only recently.

The Republic of Singapore Air Force's Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Command also operate the Hermes 450.
Credits to owner of the photo.

The Philippine Air Force's Acquisition of Hermes 450 MALE UAS:

The acquisition of the Elbit Systems Hermes 450 Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) is actually just a part of the Philippine Air Force's Unmanned Aerial Systems Level 3 acquisition project, which has a larger scope of coverage which MaxDefense will discuss in the future. The Approved Budget of Contract (ABC) for this project is Php8,470,000,000.00 and is a Government-to-Government (G2G) undertaking between the Philippines' Department of National Defense (DND) and Israel's Ministry of Defense (MoD).

The PAF's UAS Level 3 Acquisition Project (see item #2) is among those approved for implementation within 2018 under the Horizon 2 phase of the RAFPMP. Here it is shown as part of the PAF's report on Horizon 2 phase projects.
Photo taken from MaxDefense sources.

While the specific quantity was requested by sources to be made confidential, what we can say for now is that the project involves at least 1 whole system of Hermes 450 UAS, with several Hermes 450 UAVs in it. Once delivered, the Hermes 450 will be the most capable drone in the AFP's inventory for at least the very near future. The PAF's 300th Air Intelligence and Security Wing (300thAISW) will be the operating unit for these assets, which already use other ISR platforms like the Cessna 208B Grand Caravan ISR, the Boeing Insitu ScanEagle 2 UAS, and the C-130T patrol aircraft in collaboration with the 220th Airlift Wing.

MaxDefense believes that the Hermes 450 UAS would be used by the Philippine Air Force for ISR missions within the country's land and sea areas, as well as for limited use in the country's Exclusive Economic Zone. The availability of multiple types of assets allow the AFP to have a platform that is best suited for specific missions.

MaxDefense believes that the rest of the Hermes 450 fleet and equipment will be delivered to the Philippine Air Force either late this year, or within the 1st half of 2019. By that time, MaxDefense believes that the PAF will already have sufficient number of operators, maintenance personnel, and data analysts to maximize the capability of the Hermes 450 in its war and peace time operations.

Elbit Systems has been offering the Hermes 450 to the AFP since 2010. It took them 8 years to succeed with a sale.
Photo taken from MaxDefense sources.

How Was Early Delivery Possible?

Even MaxDefense was surprised to find out that a deal that was signed in April 2018 can make an advance delivery of an initial unit by August 2018, merely 4 months after the deal was finalized.

It turns out that the Hermes 450 unit that the PAF will receive soon is a goodwill unit provided by Elbit Systems to the Philippine Air Force, and is actually already available even before the contract was signed. Initially it would be used as a training unit for future Hermes 450 and other future UAV systems of the Philippine Air Force, although it would also be used later on as an ISR platform like all other units coming in from 2019 to 2020.

Take note that August 2018 was the official target delivery date of the first Hermes 450 UAV unit and its associated operating and support equipment. But as mentioned above, it was confirmed to us by our sources that the DBM was delayed in releasing the funds to cover for the Letter of Credit (LOC), which is an important basis for the contractor to start the work. 

As of this writing, MaxDefense was informed that the funds has been released and the Letter of Credit opened, and it is now expected that Elbit Systems will now be able to make the first delivery of the Hermes 450 unit within 4 months, more or less.


The Future of UAVs Looks Bright in the AFP:

As mentioned earlier, the Hermes 450 is just one part of the PAF's UAS acquisition. More assets are expected to arrive very soon under this project including several Elbit Systems' Hermes 900 UAS, while the PAF is still looking at further UAS acquisitions in the Horizon 3 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program.

Aside from the Philippine Air Force, another active acquisition project of multi-tier UAV systems will be from the Philippine Army, which is looking at drones as small as the Orbiter 2, to as large as the Hermes 450. 

The Philippine Navy is also active in its plans to acquire Unmanned Aerial Systems, which could be launched from ships for use by the Philippine Fleet, or standard land-launched UAS for use by the Philippine Marine Corps. The PMC is already a confirmed user of the Super Swiper II UAS delivered in 2017 under its MITSS acquisition project.

MaxDefense will discuss more about these Army and Navy projects in the near future.

The Philippine Navy is seen here testing what appears to be a commercially-available Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) Fixed Wing UAV, as seen on a helicopter deck of a warship.
Photo sent to MaxDefense by a community member, although was said to be first posted in the Defense of the Republic of the Philippines FB page by one of its followers. Credits to DRP and its original poster.

Summary:

1. Unmanned Aerial System Level 3 Acquisition Project (Partial) - Hermes 450 MALE UAS

End User: Philippine Air Force (300th Air Intelligence & Security Wing)
Modernization Phase: Horizon 2 Phase of RAFPMP
ABC: Php8,470,000,000.00
SARO Release: N/A
Winning Proponent: Elbit Systems through Government-to-Government deal between Philippine Department of National Defense and Israel Ministry of Defense
Contract Price: Php8,470,000,000.00 for entire project
First post by MaxDefense: 08 August 2017

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Russian Improved Kilo-class Submarines for the Philippine Navy? Here's What We Think.

In a press statement released on 10 August 2018, Defense Sec. Delfin Lorenzana mentioned that the Philippine government, spearheaded by the Department of National Defense (DND) and the Philippine Navy (PN) are currently in discussion with Russia for the acquisition of "Kilo-class submarines", which they confirmed which would be financed by a Russian soft loan program for the Philippines.

Sec. Lorenzana also confirmed that there are also offers from France and South Korea, although he made it clear that he believe that Russia would be the likely source of submarines for the Philippine Navy.

If all goes well, Sec. Lorenzana believes that they could be able to close a contract with the Russian government within the next 12 months, and the delivery can be made just before Pres. Duterte steps out of Malacanang in June 2022. Previously the Defense Department and the Philippine Navy mentioned that they are after the acquisition of at least 2 submarines within the Horizon 2 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, which runs from 2018 to 2022.

This actually is a surprise, since MaxDefense recently found out that the Philippine Navy and Department of National Defense are still in the process of getting information from all the potential suppliers with regards to the submarine product, inclusions, specifications, and support on making the PN ready for submarine operations. MaxDefense was also informed that so far, the PN's Technical Working Group on Submarine Acquisition Project has not yet finalized the submarine's technical specifications as well as the procurement requirements.

Readers may also want to see our earlier blog regarding our opinion on the Philippine Navy's readiness in having submarines in its fleet, just as a background of what we think of the program.

"Is the Philippine Navy Ready for Submarines? A Full Background and Review on the PN's Submarine Quest" - dated 15 July 2018.


Kilo-class Submarines:

The Russian Kilo-class is a family of diesel-electric attack submarines designed by Rubin Central Maritime Design Bureau, and were built by several shipbuilders in Russia although now it is built only by the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg. Originally called the Project 877 Paltus, the first submarines of the class were built for the Soviet Navy in 1980, and continued to serve until the USSR collapsed almost 30 years ago, and are now with the Russian Navy.

The Project 877 Kilo-class was also exported to several countries including China, Algeria, India, Poland, Iran, and Romania.

Improvements were made due to technological advancements which led to the arrival of Project 636 Varshavyanka, which is known in the West as the Improved Kilo-class. And since Russia is not producing the original Project 877 Kilo-class anymore, it is highly possible that what Russia is offering is the newer Project 636 Improved Kilo-class submarine which incorporates improvement over the older Kilo-class variants.

It was designed mainly for anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASuW), and also for offensive use against land targets. Also known as the "Black Hole", the Improved Kilo-class is considered as one of the quietest submarines in the world, a feature that is very important in keeping the submarine's stealthiness feature strong.

The Project 636 Varshavyanka, also known as the Improved Kilo-class.
Illustration taken and credited to Southfront.org website.

The Project 636 Improved Kilo-class submarine displaces around 2,350 tons when surfaced, is around 73 meters long, and has a crew of over 50 men.

It is powered by a combination of diesel engines and electric motors which allows it to travel to a maximum speed of 17 knots when surfaced, and more than 20 knots submerged. It has an endurance of around 45 days, with a maximum range of 7,500 nautical miles when snorkelling at 7 knots.

It is armed with six 533mm torpedo tubes which can launch most Russian-made torpedoes including the Type 53 21" torpedo family, as well as the Kalibr / Club-S family of cruise missiles.

Positive Aspects of Acquiring Improved Kilo-class Submarines:

MaxDefense believes that there are positive and negative aspects should the Philippine Navy pursue the acquisition of submarines from Russia.

The use of a soft-loan from Russia is actually a game changer here, considering the Philippine government is still trying to find ways on how to finance the acquisition of submarines after promising it to be made within Pres. Duterte's term. It appears that France, South Korea, and even other potential suppliers like Germany and Sweden are not able to match the soft-loan offer of Russia due to different reasons ranging from government policy to financial difficulty in doing it

The Kilo-class in general is one of the most successful diesel-electric submarines after World War II. Here it is compared to the West's most successful model, the Type 209 from Germany. Incidentally, TKMS of Germany is offering its latest Type 209/1400mod submarine to the Philippine Navy, while South Korea's DSME is also offering a license-built Type 209/1400 called the Chang Bogo-class.
Illustration taken and credited to NavalAnalyses website.

Allowing the Philippines to acquire submarines without paying for it outright actually means the Philippine Navy does not need to defer its other modernization projects within the Horizon 2 phase, including major projects like the Corvette Acquisition Project with a budget of Php28 billion, and the Offshore Patrol Vessel Acquisition Project with a budget of Php30 billion.

Another potential gain of the Philippine Navy here is the openness of the Russian government to export the Kalibr 3M-14E Club-S land-attack missiles, which gives the Philippines a tool for potentially hitting targets within the Chinese mainland itself as a deterrent against Chinese aggression on the Philippines. Russia also allowed Vietnam to have this weapon, which are also installed on their Project 636 Improved Kilo-class submarines. 

The Russian Kalibr / Club-S sub-launched cruise missile is among the Improved Kilo-class' trump card, which is available for export by the Russian government. The Club-S is available in both anti-ship and land attack variant.
Photo taken from and credited to Air Power Australia website.

This type of weapon is obviously unavailable if the Philippine Navy acquires submarines from France, Germany and Sweden, while South Korea may only be able to provide a similar capability several years from now since their Hyunmoo III sub-launched land attack missile has not been exported yet and may need decreased capability to meet the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) requirements.

MaxDefense believes that no doubt, the Improved Kilo-class submarines are among the best diesel-electric attack submarines in the market today, and would definitely be better than the Chinese-made submarines that it may face should the PN confirms its acquisition of the Russian submarine.

A Russian Improved Kilo-class submarine photographed by British military aircraft as it passes through the English Channel.
Credits to the original but unknown owner of the photo.

Negative Concerns on Acquiring Improved Kilo-class:

If there are pros on the acquisition of this type of submarine, certainly there are also cons.

First of, the Improved Kilo-class is also in service with the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which is, in all honesty, the most likely navy that the Philippines will defend itself from.

It means that the Chinese are very much familiar with this type of submarine, including its performance, its characteristics and capabilities, and probably even the similarity of its acoustic signature to their own Improved Kilo-class submarines. This gives them an advantage on how to deal with the Philippine Navy's own Improved Kilo-class submarines, as well as what to expect in terms of capability and weaknesses.

And being a submarine in service with the Chinese Navy, it also means that the chances of our submarine being accidentally targeted or hit by our allies is also high.

The US Navy is trained to fight submarines and ships designed and built by Russia and China, and the Improved Kilo-class is no different. Their anti-submarine units are trained to hunt submarines with similar physical shape, contour and shape, acoustic signature, and movement of the Improved Kilo-class. So even if the Philippine Navy's submarines have a distinct acoustic signature that differentiate it from the acoustic signatures of Russian and Chinese Improved Kilo-class submarines saved on their data base, accidental friendly fire during wartime or in emergencies are not impossible especially when data was taken by ASW operators with less experience on dealing with the type.

Operating a submarine not used by Russia or China greatly reduces the possibility of this unfortunate event to happen.

The Chinese Navy also uses the Improved Kilo-class submarines, 12 of which were acquired from Russia starting 1996. They definitely look similar to any other Improved Kilo-class, and may have a slightly different but definitely almost similar acoustic signature as any other Improved Kilo-class submarine, which may be a problem with regards to dealing with the Philippines traditional ally the US, as well as strategic partners like Japan and Australia.
Photo taken from Pakistan Defence forum.

MaxDefense also doubts on the ability of Russia to provide the Philippine Navy with proper or quality support on basing and basing development, training, maintenance, and others that are required for the Philippine Navy to have a working submarine group. The Russians aren't exactly world known for providing these services, as seen on most of their client nations, compared to how other European countries do it. 

Also, their methods and standards might be far from what the Philippine Navy is used to, which is primarily based on US military or Western methods and standards. What might be OK for the Russians may not be acceptable to the standards the PN is currently using.

While the Improved Kilo-class uses a totally different subsystem that is not compatible with Western systems being used by the Philippine Navy and its allies, this might be slight problem which can be overlooked by the benefits the Russians might be able to provide. Normally submarines operate on its own, and although there are times that the submarine may need to work together with other military assets of the AFP or its allies, this could be possibly remedied by installing stand-alone communications systems that may be compatible with what the AFP or its allies like the US are using.This is where the likes of India or Israel may be helpful.



Decision Making and Deeper Issues Within:

As mentioned earlier, it was actually a surprise that Sec. Lorenzana talked about the possible ordering of Russian submarines with confidence as if the decision was already made. But checking with our sources, it appears that even the Philippine Navy itself, probably except its leadership, were caught by surprise by Sec. Lorenzana's statement.

So questions here now are: does the Philippine Navy's own Technical Working Group (TWG) and Defense Acquisition System Assessment Team (DASAT) already confirmed that the best choice for them is the Improved Kilo-class? What does their own initial assessment of the different  submarines offer say? Are the technical specifications for the submarine even done as of yesterday? Did the Submarine Acquisition TWG and DASAT had a say when the government decided to go for a Russian solution?

All the questions above point on the participation of the PN's own TWG and DASAT teams, which, as far as MaxDefense's sources are concerned, appear to be non-existent. So if that is the case, what is the point of having these technical teams working to make assessments and decisions on what the AFP should acquire if there are people who decide on their own without getting to at least hear the voice of these technical teams?

Normally the AFP uses a system where it analyze the offers provided to them based on different parameters through a scoring system, and weighing the pros and cons of each system until they can find the best solution for their needs. Did the government even consider what the results of these analysis are?

It appears to MaxDefense that the decision to go for Russian submarines might be more of a financial and political decision rather than following the Philippine Navy's professional recommendation. That soft-loan offer appears to really have made the Philippine government discard whatever the Philippine Navy's technical groups have to say, since all their recommendation would go to waste if there is no money for the government to pay for the submarines.

Political decision was also very evident, due to the push of Pres. Duterte to have close political and military relationship with Russia. Despite the Philippines having Memorandum of Agreements with France, Germany and South Korea regarding the supply of submarines, it was very obvious that the government is championing the Russians, emphasizing the memorandum that the Philippines have with them when in reality it is not exclusive to the Russians. Just a few days ago, executives from Russia's Rostec and Rosoboronexport met Pres. Duterte to discuss improving working and business relations. These 2 Russian companies handle the export of arms and weapons including submarines on behalf of the Russian government and the shipbuilder/manufacturer.

Aside from Russia's Improved Kilo-class, Germany's Type 209/1400mod (top), France's Scorpene-class (middle) and South Korea's Chang Bogo-class (below) are among those said to be competing for the Philippine Navy's Submarine Acquisition Project.
Credits to original owners and sources of the 3 photos.

MaxDefense's Recommendations:


1. On Acquisition:
It appears that the government is really in a position where it would be difficult for them to finance the submarine acquisition project without any loan or financing assistance from the source's government or shipbuilder.

Thus, due to monetary concerns, it is very likely that the Philippine government will convince, or even coerce the PN's Submarine Acquisition TWG, DASAT, and even the Submarine Group leadership itself just to push them to agree on acquiring the Improved Kilo-class submarine from Russia.

That done, they really have no choice if you look at it based on history, since this is exactly what happened during the Frigate Acquisition Project when the Technical Inspection Acceptance Committeee (TIAC) and Project Management Team (PMT) were coerced by certain DND officials and by the PN leadership to agree with the shipbuilder's program and design changes. And it can simply happen again this time to the Submarine Acquisition Project's TWG and DASAT.

So, if that happens, all they have to do is accept the plan to acquire the Improved Kilo-class submarine, but make sure that these submarines would be thoroughly checked and inspected throughout the manufacturing phase in Russia to maintain quality, as well as improving the submarines by making modifications to make it capable of accepting communication and data transfer to what the Philippine Navy and AFP in general uses.

Since the Philippine Navy is ultimately looking at acquiring more than just 2 submarines, they can let the current administration pass, and acquire the submarines that they really want after Duterte's leadership expires. These Improved Kilo-class would still be beneficial for the Philippine Navy in the long run, being a similar platform used by their potential enemy, and a platform that can actually be a real deterrent to the Chinese or any other aggressor.

If they believe they are very satisfied with the Improved Kilo-class submarines and would like to acquire more, then make it happen. But if they believe they need a different submarine to complement what they already have, then we just hope the new government would support what the Philippine Navy's Submarine Group has to say.

Can the Philippine Navy's Submarine Group hold on to their requirements and findings despite strong pressure from the national government, the defense department and even from their leadership to accept Russia's offer? We'll find out later on as the project proceeds as expected.
Credits to a MaxDefense source for providing the SG's insignia.

2. On Maintenance and Training:

Since Vietnam is also a user of the Improved Kilo-class submarine having acquired 6 just a few years ago, it is wise for the Philippine Navy to improve its ties with Vietnam, and get them to agree on a training, maintenance, and cooperation agreement for the Improved Kilo-class submarines.

Vietnam has decades of experience in dealing with the Russians, and are very proficient in making sure they get to have a maintenance facility in their own land. Thus it is expected that Vietnam may have the expertise too, or will have them soon, in maintaining the submarines without too much reliance on Russian shipyards.

A similar agreement with India would also be beneficial, being another Kilo-class submarine user and a potential strategic partner of the Philippines in the future.

Aside from that, Vietnam is now building its own submarine rescue ship, to provide support for their fleet of Russian submarines. The rescue ship are expected to be completed soon, and are designed to exactly fit the requirements of the Improved Kilo-class. While the Philippines should plan on having its own submarine rescue capability, a tie-up with Vietnam on this regard is a good investment while also strengthening relations with our neighbour.

A similar agreement may also be made with Singapore, which also has the capability, and allow the Philippine Navy to have options in case of emergency.

Vietnam also operates the Improved Kilo-class submarine (top) and is building a submarine rescue ship (above) to support their fleet of submarines in case of emergencies.
Photo taken from NavyRecognition (submarine) and 189shipbuilding.com.vn (submarine rescue ship)

3. On Dealing with the US and other Partners:

Once the Russian submarines are already with the Philippines, the US has no choice but to accept the reality. The decision to buy Russian submarines may not be a strong reason to degrade the 1951 PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty as well as other defense agreements, but it is expected that the US may have the option to impose their Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) policy, which they would impose on US companies dealing with the Philippines, or investing and contributing to the economy of the Philippines. So far the Philippines has not been exempted by the Americans on this policy.

Implementing CAATSA or not, it is expected that the US will continue to work together with the AFP, and may even ask for access to these Russian-made submarines.

The Philippine Navy and the AFP in general should use its wit in this regard. While it is inevitable that the Americans may have access to Philippine submarines, the PN should be forceful enough to get the Americans to share their library of acoustic signatures especially for warships and submarines of the Chinese Navy and the China Coast Guard. This enables them to immediately know everyone in the region without doing the hardwork themselves.

The Philippine Navy should also ask for the assistance of the US and its strategic partners in training on submarine operations, which is expected to be different from what the Russians would be teaching them. This allows the PN to get the best of both worlds, and applying them for their benefit.


Summary:

1. Submarine Acquisition Project

End User: Philippine Navy (Submarine Group)
Modernization Phase: RA 10349 Revised AFP Modernization Program HORIZON 2 (still to be confirmed due to vagueness by the Philippine government on this)

ABC: Php20,000,000,000.00 per submarine based on PN's previous proposals

First post by MaxDefense: 12 June 2018

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