Russia has unnecessarily showed its capabilities (or lack of it) in a war it might strategically lose

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed a lot of valuable information on the Russian Armed Forces' overall capabilities, considered valuable not just by NATO forces that was formed to counter a theoretical Russian invasion of Western (and Eastern) Europe, but also by the world's militaries, think tanks, defense schools, and analysts in general.

Russia has invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Photo credits to Financial Times.

No doubt, Russia is winning the war as its forces continue to steam-roll Ukraine by shear firepower. But it has taken terrible tactical losses and strategic delays  that are not expected of a superpower military like those of Russia.

The invasion is entering its 18th day as of this writing, yet the Russian military has failed to accomplish its objectives and deadlines. Russian forces have failed to conduct a blitzkrieg across Ukraine, has failed to reach the capital Kyiv, has failed to dislodge and dispose of the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and install a pro-Moscow puppet government. And it appears that the Russian military will continue to fail in the coming weeks.

While Ukraine has massive losses in manpower and materiel, the war highlighted an even outrageously massive Russian losses emphasized by photos and videos from the ground, and confirmation from NATO  monitoring from spy satellites over Ukraine.

In less than 2 weeks, Russia has lost more men and materiel in Ukraine than the American losses in Iraq in over 8 years. And in 3 weeks, Russia is more than half the total losses of Soviet forces in Afghanistan in 10 years from 1979-1989. This is based even on just half of what the Ukrainian government claims.

The Russian Air Force has not achieved air superiority, more so air dominance over the skies of Ukraine, and it has suffered losses almost on a daily basis against Ukrainian air defenses. It also shows that the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defense Forces are still working despite reduced capabilities, and is successfully deterring the Russian Air Force.

Russian Air Force Su-35 Flanker-E fighters during exercises. Photo credits to Reuters.

Poor logistics and support on Russian forces has been a major highlight in this conflict. This includes lack of fuel (multiple cases of abandoned Russian vehicles due to lack of fuel) and food (reports of expired Meals Ready to Eat given to Russian soldiers resulting to Russian troops looting Ukrainian stores and even farms), use of poor quality Chinese-made military tires (which are said to be a poor-piss copy of a Michelin tire model), and lack of coordination between frontline combat units and supporting units.

Russian Army convoy near Kyiv has not moved forward for weeks. Photo credits to Maxar Technologies.

Troop morale and lack of information has also become a prevailing problem with the Russian forces. Especially for the initial invading units, soldiers were given wrong information by saying that they will be going for a training mission, and that Ukrainians will welcome them with open arms. Maps were not given to many Russian soldiers, or the maps are too old and useless. Tactical leadership also appears to be a problem resulting to high-level officers to be in the frontline and getting killed by Ukrainian forces. So far, MaxDefense PH has reported the death of 3 high-ranking Russian generals killed in the frontline.

Surrendering Russian troops due to hunger and low morale. Photo credits to original source.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine also exposed a lot of vulnerabilities in Russian assets and units, many of which were perceived to be among the best in the world. Below are some examples:

* The massive losses of highly-regarded Russian main battle tanks like the T-72, T-80 and the T-90 against Western anti-tank systems like the American FGM-148 Javelin, the British-Swedish NLAW, and even to other systems like the munitions used by the Turkish Bayraktar UCAV. The war also exposed the Russian Army's lack of active protection systems on its tanks, as well as the condition of its tanks (based on photos and videos on the inside and outside of captured/destroyed units);

Destroyed and captured Russian tanks. Photo credits to Oryx.

* Vulnerability of Russian Airborne Forces airdrop-capable armored vehicles (BMD and BTR series of armored vehicles), which suffered severe losses against light anti-tank weapons and RPGs from Ukrainian regular forces;

Decimated VDV forces in Bucha. Photo credits to original source.

* The unexpected losses of high-end Russian combat aircraft including the Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker, Su-35 Flanker-E, and Su-34 Fullback, which might affect its export (although the sanctions Russia received might even make it impossible to sell for export afterall);

The wreck of one of the Russian Air Force's Su-34 Fullback strike aircraft. Photo credits original source.

* The widespread use of air-dropped unguided munitions (dumb bombs and rockets) by the Russian Air Force has led experts to believe that Russia does not have sufficient precision guided munitions in its inventory.

* The widespread lack of encrypted / secured communications and C3 systems of Russian frontline units (widespread use of civilian radios), which allowed Ukrainian forces, NATO Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) and Communications Intelligence (COMINT) units, and even Ukrainian and European civilians to intercept and jam Russian communications and allowing Ukrainian upper hand and release of information (losses, morale, problems, etc) from the Russian side;

Russian units do not have access to secured military communications equipment like the Russian AZART P1 as shown above. Photo credits to Vitaly Kuzmin via Wikimedia Commons.

* The vaunted Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) and Russian Special Operations Forces (Spetsnaz) also suffered massive defeats in several occasions against Ukrainian regular and Special Operations (Alpha Group). There were several instances that combat between Spetsnaz versus Alpha Group operators resulted in Russian defeat. This will affect the prestige and perception on the Spetsnaz being one of the best in the world.

A unit from the Russian Airborne Forces were destroyed by Ukrainian forces in Hostomel. Photo credits to original source.

Russia is also losing the global social media war, in several ways also because of their own doing:
* Ukraine's ability to report Russian losses on the ground at almost real time by using social media has helped them a lot.
* Russians are dependent on their state-owned media outlets, which have been ineffective in reporting Russian gains and Ukrainian losses due to lack of information to report, but also because of them staying behind the front lines.
* The lies or misinformation from Russian state-owned media has been exposed numerous times, resulting to reduced readership and global acceptance as reliable sources of information.
* Russian government's decision to halt operations of Facebook, Twitter, and soon Instagram, as well pressuring the closure of Russian independent news agencies/outlets also means the Russian public will have not much options on where to get information.

And now Russia is resorting to scare tactics by announcing the increased alert level of Russian nuclear forces, as well as resorting to targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous claims that Russian forces will not target civilians.

In the end, while Russia may win the war with heavy military losses, it will lose a lot more.
* While NATO has not entered into a physical war with Russia, the massive sanctions the Russian economy and oligarchy are getting from most major countries around the world would cripple the Russian economy and its ability to finance its military, as well as erase the economic gains made by Russia in the last 25 years;
* Russia may have underestimated Ukraine, a country of 44 million people with a land area similar to that of France. Ukraine is not a small country, and it has citizens who are not willing to be subjugated by Russia. It will lose a lot in fighting a guerrilla warfare against surviving Ukrainian military and civilian units that are committed to dislodging Russian presence in their country;

Many Ukrainian women are also joining the fight against Russian invaders. Photo credits to ABC News.

* The Russian public will be affected by their country becoming something like a pariah state, and could turn their attention or anger to Pres. Putin, which means a threat to his leadership. Pres. Putin is already believed to have become paranoid on his safety even from his closest friends and subordinates. 

Is Putin becoming paranoid? According to experts, it is possible. Photo credits to original source.

* The invasion of Ukraine has made NATO stronger, and has also strengthened the relationship between the European Union, UK, the US, and its other allies like Australia and Japan.
* Germany will start increasing its defense budget, while other NATO countries are expected to follow suit. 

Germany is doubling its defense budget due to Russian threat. Photo credits to Associated Press.

We are not underestimating the Russians in this post. Instead, we are highlighting that the world might have overestimated the Russian juggernaut, and NATO may have prepared incorrectly based on the information it has over the last 30 years. 

There is no surprise that Ukrainians are fighting hard and making it difficult for Russian forces to takeover their country.

But the real surprise here is the Russian military's inability to fight effectively and efficiently, and make use of its advantage in terms of materiel, overall fighting capability, and experience. Everyone is just surprised that Russia has not lived up to expectations.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines should be very keen in studying the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as many lessons can be taken from it that could improve the AFP's overall capability and performance against a larger foreign invader.

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First edit and release: 13 March 2022
Copyright MaxDefense Philippines

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