1. Delivery of 2 Armed AW-109 Naval Helicopters
The last two of a total of five ordered AW-109 Power naval helicopters from AgustaWestland was reportedly delivered to the Philippine Navy on December 29, 2014, and are expected to be commissioned to active duty on January 16, 2015. These two units are expected to complement the two Gregorio del Pilar-class frigates while the three unarmed versions are expected to be land based until more helicopter-capable navy ships become available.
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| A photo of one of the new AW-109 Power naval helicopters being tested in Italy in October 2014. Photo copyright owned by Fabrizio Capenti - Malpensa Spotters Group, taken from Airliners.net. |
These helicopters differ from the earlier three units for being armed variants, with external loading capability that could enable the helicopter to carry different weapons systems ranging from gun pods, rocket launchers, and although still officially unconfirmed, can also be fitted to carry a torpedo. There were also previous indications that the helicopters are fitted with Electronic Countermeasures (ECM) systems which the earlier three helicopters do not have.
With the PN beginning to fully understand the capabilities of the helicopters, it is expected that further orders might be fulfilled to fully replace the ageing BO-105.
2. Updates on the Strategic Sealift Vessels (aka Landing Platform Dock)
The contract to build two Strategic Sealift Vessels (SSV), which is the project name to acquire Landing Platform Docks for the Philippine Navy, has been awarded to PT PAL of Indonesia and signed mid this year. And according to PT PAL and Philippine Navy press statements, the lead ship will be started within the 1st quarter of 2015 and will be delivered to the Philippine Navy on the 2nd quarter of 2016, while the second ship will be delivered by 2nd quarter of 2017.
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| The scale model above is not yet the final design, and MaxDefense confirmed through its PN sources that there are changes in the helicopter deck and hangar design. |
According to MaxDefense's PN sources, the final design of the ship has already been confirmed although minor details are still being finalized. It would be a derivative of PT PAL's own Banjarmasin-class LPD for the Indonesian Navy, and will have a mount for a 76mm forward main gun, remote weapons systems in the 20 to 30mm class similar to the Mk.38 Mod.2 being procured for other PN ships, mounts for Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) in the Mistral-Simbad class, and for 50-caliber heavy machine guns. The weapons will be separately procured by the Philippine Navy and it is still being determined if these weapons can be installed fully or partially by the time the ships are delivered.
MaxDefense is expecting more news of this project within the early part of 2015.
3. Updates on the New Frigate Acquisition Project:
The Philippine Navy recently confirmed that the new frigate acquisition project is still on the move, with all six interested bidders that passed the 1st stage bidding process still up in the running. The pre-bid conference for the 2nd stage bidding is scheduled on January 8, 2015, and bidding will be held probably before the end of February 2015. The PN expects the awarding and contract signing for the frigate contract within the 1st half of 2015 as they are trying to avoid further delaying the project.
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| Hyundai Heavy Industries offered the HDF-300 multipurpose frigate design, which is where the ROKN's Incheon-class frigate was based. |
During the ADAS 2014, HHI confirmed that they are indeed offering a design based on their HDF-3000 multipurpose frigate which the South Korean Incheon-class was derived, while Navantia is offering a design based on their Avante series. Indian and French press releases regarding their participation (Garden Reach and STX France, respectively) in the project indicated their offers will have a displacement of more than 3,000 tons displacement and a length of more than 105 meters. STX France also previously indicated that they are offering a design based on their New Generation Surveillance Frigate.
As the pre-bid conference is scheduled within a few days, MaxDefense is also expecting more news regarding this project very soon.
4. Updates on the Anti-Submarine Helicopter Acquisition Project:
With AgustaWestland named as the only bidder that complied with the requirements of the Anti-Submarine Helicopter Acquisition project's 1st stage bidding, it is expected that the project will be moving on faster as the DND and PN would only need to deal with 1 bidder. Although they have passed through the 1st stage bidding, AgustaWestland still needs to comply to the requirements set for the project.
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| The chances for an awarding of the contract for 2 Anti-Submarine Helicopters to AgustaWestland is now high as they are the only complying bidder. AgustaWestland is offering its new AW159 Wildcat ASW helicopter. |
The PN expects the award and signing of contract for this project to be completed within the 1st half of 2015, and will be paired closely to the PN's frigate acquisition project due to capabilities that require the helicopters and frigates to work closely with each other.
5. Updates on the Missile-Equipped Multi-Purpose Assault Craft (MPAC):
Re-bidding for this project will be initiated this coming 2015, and there are reportedly some changes in the terms of reference of the project. It is expected that the same bidders as last time will be submitting their interest for this project.
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| One of the PN's MPACs, delivered as part of the 2nd batch of 3 units acquired a few years ago. The PN's current requirement is for such to have short-range anti-surface missiles and a remote weapons station. Photo taken from Interaksyon.com. |
It is expected that these MPACs will be physically larger than the two current sub-classes being used by the Philippine Navy, although it would be retaining most of its performance attributes.
6. Commissioning of 3 Naval Tankers provided by PNOC:
Originally intended to be commissioned this year, the Philippine Navy has rescheduled the entry of 3 tankers, all still unnamed, after some reworks on the ships that will enable them to do replenishment at sea missions in support of the fleet. These are former oil tankers of the Philippine National Oil Company that were given to the Philippine Navy this year.
No exact schedule yet on when these ships will enter naval service.
7. Hand-over of a Pohang-class Corvette and LCU from South Korea:
According to previous reports from Korean media, the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) will decommission several ships in their fleet before the end of the year, including the Ulsan-class frigate ROKS Ulsan, a couple of Pohang-class corvettes, and several patrol killer gunboats. Among those is ROKS Gyeongju (PCC-758), which is speculated to be the ship to be handed-over to the Philippine Navy.
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| The ROKS Gyeongju (PCC-758), which was reportedly the unit to be provided to the Philippine Navy. |
It is expected that the deal for transfer of the ship to the PN will be similar to what the Colombians had when they got some ships from the Korean government this year. Refurbishing will be done in Korea, and will be paid for by the Philippine government, before the ship can be sent to the Philippines for commissioning. There are already preparations being made by the PN for people to be sent to Korea, although information regarding this has been tight lately.
Aside from the Pohang-class corvette, there are also reports that a retired LCU of the Mulgae-class, will also be included, which was discussed previously in a MaxDefense blog entry. No new information though regarding development on this acquisition.
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| An example of a Mulgae-class LCU from South Korea. |
8. Possible Offers of More Korean Excess Defense Articles for the Philippine Navy:
In relation to the availability of excess Pohang and Ulsan class warships, there are strong speculations that the Korean government has been pushing hard for the Philippine Navy and Department of National Defense to choose a Korean shipbuilder to win the new frigate acquisition project, and other Korean defense manufacturers like Samsung Techwin, Samsung Thales, Hyundai Rotem, Doosan, and LIG Nex1 in other defense acquisition projects.
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| ROKS Chongju (FF-961), an example of an Ulsan-class frigate from South Korea. |
The offer was said to include conditional offers to transfer more Pohang-class corvettes, and probably a couple of Ulsan-class frigates. Although this is not limited to the Koreans, with other bidders reportedly having similar conditional offers as well. According to MaxDefense's PN sources, the Navy is indeed very much interested in acquiring several of the both classes as it also pushes to retire more of its ex-World War 2 assets.
9. Acquisition of 8 Amphibious Assault Vehicles:
The tender for the acquisition of 8 units of AAVs resulted to only Samsung Techwin submitting a bid, with an offer for their AAV7 armored vehicle. These vehicles will be embedded with the SSV that the PN acquired (please see #2 above).
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| Samsung Techwin's AAV7 is a licensed copy of the original AAV7 / LVTP-7 built by BAE Systems. |
Post qualifications have reportedly been completed although there were no confirmation if Samsung Techwin was able to comply with the requirements. It is expected that an award for this project will be made early next year, as the 2-stage bidding process was also cut short with the entry of only 1 bidder. It is expected that the PMC will acquire more AAVs as the PN acquires more SSV and other amphibious naval ships to support Marine operations.
10. Shoulder-Launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon (SMAW) for the Marine Corps:
The Philippine Navy confirmed recently that they have started evaluating the Philippine Marine Corps (PMC) requirement for Shoulder-Launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon (SMAW) to replace the ageing and heavy recoilless rifles still used by the service.
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| An old catalog of the SMAW, as marketed by the now defunct McDonnel Douglas Astronautics Company. |
As discussed before in MaxDefense, this project has been in the pipeline for more than 2 years now, and it is curious to know why the PN only started the evaluation of this project recently. It is unclear yet if the PMC is interested in the original SMAW weapon used by the US Marines, or is still looking for a different model from other sources. It is interesting to note that the Philippine Army went separate ways on the decision to replace old recoilless rifles, with the Army choosing the RPG-7USA made by American arms company Airtronic.
10. 155mm Towed Howitzers for the Philippine Marine Corps:
Previously reported as a joint Philippine Army-Philippine Marine Corps project, and was reported won by Israeli company Elbit Systems Land and C4I, recent press releases by the Philippine Navy indicated that the project will again undergo a rebidding for still unknown reasons.
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| The Elbit Systems Athos 155mm towed howitzer, which was initially selected as a winner for a joint PA-PMC 155mm towed howitzer acquisition project. The PN confirmed recently that a rebidding will take place soon. |
If another bidding is to proceed, it is expected that this will happen within the 1st quarter of 2015, although it is still unclear if this will still be a joint acquisition with the Philippine Army. It appears also that the PMC is interested in acquiring support systems for the artillery system, including targeting radar and fire control computer systems.
Aside from those listed above, there are still many other projects under the Philippine Navy that are not discussed anymore, but will be given coverage in future MaxDefense blog entries as more information becomes available for public consumption.
Although 2014 has not been a very good year for the AFP Modernization due to several delays encountered due to questions on the source of funding, especially with the legislative moves questioning the legality of Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP) and usage of the Malampaya Trust Fund, the AFP and DND were able to use the time to allow most of the projects to move quickly as issues are being cleared by early 2015.
MaxDefense wishes the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the Department of National Defense, and all MaxDefense blogs and Facebook page readers a very Merry Christmas and a Happy, Prosperous New Year!! Wishing a faster-paced modernization program and additional support and budget from the national government to broader up the program further!
Sir Max, is there any update about the Close-Air-Support Aircraft?
ReplyDeleteLast time I posted on it, I remember the bidding was moved again. I pressume they are waiting for something.
DeleteIndonesia buy SSV, we buy ssv
DeleteIndonesia buy T-50, we buy FA-50
Indonesia buy super tucano, do we'll buy it?
and Indonesia buy MBT, do we'll buy it too?
Terrain is a huge factor in planning your defense. The Philippines and Indonesia are geographically similar. Several big islands and lots of small islands in a geologically active area in a tropical climate. Defense adapted to similar terrain will share a lot of similarity. There are differences, of course, but there will be a lot of similarity too.
DeleteIt so happens that Indonesia started their modernization a few years earlier than the Philippines. This means that their projects, having started earlier, also finish earlier. This is not a big deal.
Instead, we should look at it as having the opportunity to see what works and what doesn't and then adapt the lessons to fit the Philippines. There is no need to be different just for the sake of being different.
Indonesian and Filipino soldiers regularly train together and exchange data. There is a swap of ideas for mutual benefit. Besides, there is plenty of differences if we look closer.
nice post as usual... thanks and Happy New Year, Max!
ReplyDeleteHi Max, you mention "It appears also that the PMC is interested in acquiring support systems for the artillery system, including targeting radar and fire control computer systems". what particular or similar systems are you referring to? can you please cite specific example soi that we can have a clear picture of what they intended to acquire?
ReplyDeleteThanks God Bless and More Power.
Hiblood
Well for you sir Max Happy new year and god bless our country. At least our AFP modernization is moving forward despite delays and luck of funds...more power AFP.
ReplyDeleteSir Max, I would like to know more about the Coastal batteries and the SAMS. You mentioned a while back that this has been progressing quietly and there possibly is a reason for it. But if you can give us any info about it, it would be very much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteAnd also: Given Saudi Arabia is phasing out its F5s. Is there any chance PH acquires them if the price is reasonable? or are they ruling these out because they're focusing on the CAS and MRFs?
Thanks and Happy New Year!
- Neo
Neo, as promised with some of my sources, I cannot divulge as much info especially on projects that are intentionally being kept secret. All I can say is that it is indeed moving and a decision might be made by this year.
DeleteSince Saudi is bidding them, I have serious doubts that the PH can get some. But I am actually open to acquiring a squadron plus spares to jumpstart the redevelopment of a fast jet fleet, a pilot and ground crew pool, and experience.
To be frank I don't think the PAF is interested in Saudi Arabian F-5 Tiger II. If it's given away for free it might be worth considering, but if PAF is supposed to buy it at market price, it is not worth it and PAF isn't interested.
DeleteSaudi Arabia started retiring their F-5 since 2001. By 2006 they only used F-5 B and F for training purposes. The service life of those F-5 Tiger II are used up or nearly so. This sale is intended for countries that already operates F-5 Tiger II aircrafts. They can then use the aircrafts for spare-parts and who knows there might be some that are still flyable which they can slot straight into their logistical chain.
PAF doesn't operate F-5 Tiger II though. They used to operate F-5 A/B, which is a different model with different engines and parts. But even that has been retired for almost 10 years. So if PAF buys the Saudi Arabian F-5 Tiger II, PAF will have to spend more money inspecting all those, refurbishing the flyable ones, then train completely new ground crews and pilots, and then create a completely new logistical chain for them. All this for something obsolete (unless more money is spent upgrading them), and by the time PAF is done with those, two or three years would have passed, so you didn't save time either.
To me the same amount of money and time and manpower are better spent on getting more S-211 or replacing them, because in about 5 years that's going to be a bottleneck limiting PAF's ability to train fast jet pilots.
The $20 milion Textron Airland Scorpion ISR/Strike/Trainer jet is the better alternative than the F-5. It's cheap, brand new, has less operating cost and can start delivery within a year or two after opening the letter of credit.
Deletehttp://www.scorpionjet.com/
Alright sir Max, that is noted. I am pleasantly surprised though by your report that the DND is taking the Coastal defense seriously given we (readers) don't have much of anything to indeed think PH will have this missile defense capability. To have these assets sooner than most everyone thinks would be a blessing.
DeleteWith the secrecy, I'm expecting PH to allocate sufficient budget for these batteries, as I can see these would be the REAL HEAVY HITTERS of PH.
Perhaps, secrecy is a good thing. :)
And regarding the F5s, if it goes thru bidding, PH is out of it, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.
To Anonymous (01-02): I am not aware that's a different plane, so you may be right, it's not going to be cost effective for us to have these F5s.
But still, if these come at a very low price, then yes, that would be great (like I said earlier).
- Neo
Hi Max, happy new year! Thank you for this new blog. Am looking forward to the rest of your other articles. Am very positive about the modernization and these delays are teething problems. After the 1st quarter we should expect the process to move faster. If there is any indication of the seriousness of this administration in pursuing the modernization program I suggest to other readers to read the biography of SND Gazmin. The 2015 DND budget is also another indication.
ReplyDeleteFreddie
Sir Max,
ReplyDeleteWhat happen with the AFP dealings with Israel’s military manufacturer company?
1. Rebidding of 105mm towed howitzer? (We thought Israel’s Elbit Systems win the bids to provide 12 155mm towed howitzer Soltam Athos).
2. Please update on the Elbit Systems Land and C4I to upgrade 28 BAE Systems M113A2?
3. Please update on the acquisition of air defense surveillance radars from Israel’s Elta Systems.
4. Please update on impending purchase of surface-to-air missile systems from Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems (Rafael) and Israel Military Industries (IMI)?
Pny
If the Korean offers more excess naval ships. they have a big chance of getting the frigate project. Aside from competitive and multi role capability. Incheon class, i think is the best offer for PN. With extra pohang or ulsan class if we choose Incheon class. Not bad for a nation that is in dire need of a credible naval assets. Push for Incheon!
ReplyDeleteNote that STX and DSME are also offering their products.
Deletewhat will the stx and dsme offer with the frigate ?
DeleteI would expect the Philippines to look for a Medium Lift Helicopter for the LPD. It would make sense to put the Marines on the LPD and the Marines can use the LPD for Amphibious operations. A good medium lift would be the AW-139M or the AW-149.
ReplyDeleteAs for the so-called Frigate deal, I think it's nothing more than a stripped down gun boat, without all the major weapons and systems. They should have simply instead gone for all the remaining Pohang class Corvettes and Ulsan class Frigates. With the Ulsan, just remove the Stern Gun and install a Helipad and Hangar and modify it to the version of the BNS Bangabandhu. Getting the Pohong class Corvettes and Ulsan class Frigates now would give the Philippines the capabilities of the Navy in the 1980's.
As far as the oil ship, they should have instead gotten the Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship. It would have been their one stop shop ship and do many things for the price of one ship. With the oilers they should have dual manning system like the one the US navy has with the US Military Sealift command has. Here's an example http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/us-navy-on-the-take-as-it-beefs-up-supply-ship-capacity-updated-01826/
As for an ASW helicopter, Italy is their best option because Italy has some good ASW/ASUW helicopters AW-159. The other option would be the Eurocopter AS565 Panther.
Happy New Year Max, would you be able to expand a bit the missile equipped MPAC or do an in-depth analysis? Maybe a side by side comparison to an MK VI which the US may want to share with us through FMS.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Max. Its been a great year for us reADERS of Maxdefense that we were able to get an accurate and true reoport on the prospect of our military modernization. I hope that the Defense Department Officials will now get their acts together to make the project turn to realization. So much delay that the Phils is now being left out by neighboring ASEAN countries on matters of Defense Equipment. I hope this people already know what we want and not because we want it as it is only needed ARCEE
ReplyDelete" Although this is not limited to the Koreans, with other bidders reportedly having similar conditional offers as well. According to MaxDefense's PN sources, "
ReplyDeletehmmmm, regarding other bidders, what offers could they be possibly dangling:
Spain - Descubierta corvette
INdia - Vikram opv
France - D'Estienne d'Orves corvette, p-400 opv
Not necessarily ships, but may include counter trade, investments, or other military wares like aircraft and armored vehicles.
DeleteMax, how about the M/V susitna?Is there any updates on that?
DeleteI believe that majority of your readers are in agreement that the Koreans winning the frigate bidding will result in more excess Pohangs and Ulsans for the Philippine Navy.
ReplyDeleteThat's true. We should award this frigate projects to the Koreans as they showed full support to our Navy's modernization by giving us free warships. The Koreans gave us something so i think we have the obligation to also give something for the Koreans. I hope and pray that the Koreans will win the bidding.
DeleteHi Sir Max, whatever happened to the LRPA bidding. Do you have any updates.
ReplyDeleteMoved to early this year.
DeleteIt has been an arduous and deliberating year for the AFP Modernization program . Mostly on the delayed acquisition of the 2 light frigate of the PN and the upgrading of the sensor and weapon system of the 2 GHdP class , not to mentioned the 6 close air support aircraft for the Air Force . But there is always light at the end of the tunnel and by the way things are we may have the winning bidder before half of 2015 is over . I'm leaning towards our ROK ally as the probable winner of the frigate program because of more possible advantages in expediting our force multiplier in a shorter period of time . I have always emphasized on Israel technology in extending the life service of 20th century military hardwares as proven through their armed forces. The Ulsan class and the Pohang class can be modified with out extensive retrofitting being done and extending its service life for at least another 20 years base on our defense requirements. The 2 upcoming LHDP ships base on MaxDefense specs would be a formidable amphibious vessel hopefully we can add 2 more in the distant future . As for the land base early warning system and air network missile defense system is it still on the drawing board ? Regarding the navy fast attack craft base on the MPAC series would be an interesting design specially the vessels current size and the requirements it needs to carry surface to surface missiles . I'm still very grateful even with the obstacles and delays we've encounter yet the program is still on a steady course hopefully things would speed up for upcoming year. Many thanks to MaxDefense for finding time in giving us the updates and latest information on our plight to modernize and equip the AFP. As well as for always sticking out for the service men and women of the AFP which has gone a long way in creating and building a professional military force of volunteers. Happy New Year 🎉and Good tidings to everyone 🎄.God Bless . Oplan X
ReplyDeleteAgain happy new year to all.....Sir Max if your're not busy may I ask is it possible for PN to fast tract the program of getting a submarine before 2020? Also, can we have our PN personnel be trained abroad for submarine operations and warfare? With this approach i think we can confidently accelerate the competency our PN in operating a submarine.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your End of Year Report on the State of the AFP's Modernization Program. I find it very informative, exhaustive and incisive. Your comments and opinions are well-founded and well-thought of. I trust that this report as well as your earlier researches find their way on the desks of the decision makers. I am glad and proud that you are on our side. Keep it up. More power to you.
ReplyDeleteAnd Max, "Happy New Year."
Thank you, sir Max for giving us latest updates and information about our AFP modernization. Always looking forward to the rest of your article.....Happy New Year!
ReplyDeletehappy new year sir max, thanks for all very informative articles. looking forward for more this 2015
ReplyDeletejust read rokn retired 2 pohangs gyeongju and mokpo and 1 ulsan. im interested if the ulsan will be sold or will be donated to pn. it packs good firepower hope pn will acquire it
nope. the lead ship of the Ulsan-class will be used as a museum ship by the ROKN. it is their very first locally-built frigate and they take pride to that. the same happened to the lead ship of the Pohang-class
DeleteThis year ay dapat ituloy na nang gobyerno natin ang oil/gas exploration at drilling sa Recto (Reed) Bank bago pa ito makuha at masakop ng China. Part ito ng Philippine Continental Shelf at walang karapatan ang China na makialam pa. Ang problema ay natatakot ang gobyerno natin na ituloy ito dahil pinagbabantaan ng China. Papaano kung nanduon pala ang billions of barrels ng oil at natural gas at umpisahang dalhin ng China ang oil drilling rig nito diyan so another Mischief/Mabini Reef na naman ang ipamimigay ng gobyerno natin. Our government should make a stand and defend our sovereign territory at hindi yung atras ng atras.
ReplyDeleteA Happy New Year to you, Max.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the year end progress report - it is good to see this, as it provides an opportunity to see the forest through the trees.
It seems like the Philippines is finally making good, steady progress. That's the way to do it, imo - methodical, steady, smart progress that will ultimately lead to the Philippines having strong defense forces if it keeps up.
Laurence
Hi Sir Max.. Happy new Year to you and to all those who follow your blog. Mabuhay ang AFP and God Bless to our Galant Soldier
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Sir Max! Sir, is there a possibility that we adopt the 7.62mm NATO round as our standard round instead of the 5.56mm NATO. Plenty of NATO soldiers in Afghanistan are complaining with the 5.56mm ammunition. It is a shoot to wound round, not a shoot to kill round. Most insurgents will survive the hit from a 5.56mm round and will continue fighting just like what happened in Afghanistan. We need to start abandoning the 5.56mm round. It is much better to have our soldiers equipped with the standard M14 instead of the M16's and M4's. I know that our soldiers will be sacrificing the amount of ammo that they will carry if they switch to 7.62mm rounds since these rounds are larger and heavier but more lethal. We can still keep a small amount of 5.56mm for short-range cover fire purposes but we should increase or have more rifles that shoot 7.62mm NATO rounds in our inventory. We still have soldiers carrying the old M16A1 that can only shoot the .223 rounds. These M16a1's cannot even shoot the 5.56mm round. I think we must retire those old M16A1's and supply them with new M14's. What is your opinion on this issue Sir Max? I would be very glad to hear from you Sir Idol. :-)
ReplyDeleteAfter UNCLOS decides in favor of the Philippines, China will never give up our occupied territories at Spratly Islands & Scarborough Shoal without a military confrontation and without US help. It will require 25% of our GDP (roughly $44 billion) to attain minimum credible defense. If our next incoming president can allocate one time only in 2017 military budget this $44 billion, it can already buy us…648 Gripen NG MRFs @ $68 million each or 147 Frigates @ $300 million each or 22,000 Cruise Missiles @ $2 million each which are more than enough to deny China the ability to take control of our territories inside our EEZ zone. The billions of barrels of oil & natural gas & marine resources in the Spratly Islands will compensate what we have spent for military defense. The reserves are there just waiting for exploitation.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you Sir but i doubt if the incoming President has the balls allocate $44 billion for military purposes unless i will be elected.hahaha. If I am the President, i will allocate $500 billion dollars to modernize our AFP
Delete25% GDP? What a dumb idea.
Delete1. The 2015 national budget is only 18.4% of the GDP. The percentage won't change much even in 2017. Call it 20%. How much extra tax are you willing to bear to make up the remainder?
2. The national budget pays for all the services that the government provides. To use them all up for defense means shutting down hospitals and schools for a whole year. It means opening up the prisons because there's no money to run them. It means putting all the police on unpaid leave because there's no money to pay them for that year. Luckily, no president will be stupid enough to do that and congress would not let such a dumb thing pass anyway.
3. You are way too focused on money. But all those things you mention are mere toys without trained people behind them. You can't magic them out. It will take time to train them. Buying stuff too fast will simply end up wasteful since there won't be qualified people to operate them.
There are no shortcuts, people. Accept that due to errors in the past it will take a decade to fix things. And that's already fast. You can shave off two or three years by spending more money, but diminishing return limits how much time can be shaved. What's needed is a constant pace, not some jump-start spending spree followed by running out of money again.
$44 billion is attainable bec. it takes several years before you get deliveries of Frigates, MRFs and Cruise Missiles and paid in staggered amounts. If you spread $44 billion into the 6-year term of the next incoming president, you actually allocate $7.33 billion (P330 billion) per year for defense which is roughly 12.69% of a P2.6 trillion yearly national budget. If you’ll wait for 50-100 years before attaining minimum credible defense, there is no more Spratly Island territories to defend bec. China will not wait that long. The next president has to be decisive if he wants to defend our territorial sovereignty over Spratly Islands or just surrender them to China. Education got P367 billion, Public Works P303 billion and Defense P144 billion for 2015. Just a matter of choosing the priorities of the government. China’s defence budget will hit $238.2 billion in 2015. Do you know why? Because it is preparing for a regional war in the near future and bullying us is just the starting point.
DeleteCorrection…$44 billion = 15.17% 0f 2014 $290 billion nominal GDP
DeleteTheir is no dumb idea in hypothetical statement. Max said "IF". However, I understand your point.. mistakes have been made by previous administration by not funding the AFP MODERNIZATION. Come 2016 election, Filipinos once again task to elect a person that will guide them in tumultuous times ahead. Soldiers can won battles but Politicians won wars.
Deleteserge
I said 25% of GDP is a dumb idea because it is. If you shift goal posts and say $44 billion spread over several years, that's basically the constant pace I said. The 2015 defense budget is $2,6 billion. Every year, increase the amount by 10% and by the 11th year you will exceed $44 billion. This is economically viable. If you want to rush it into 8 years, it is still doable if it's done carefully.
DeleteBut you do not simply declare "25% GDP in 2017" or "$44 billion in 2017". That's not viable.
Also, only about 20%-40% of the money will be spent on new stuff. The rest goes for maintenance costs, operational costs, personnel, basing, etc. This goes for every military in the world. Accept this and adjust your expectations.
If a frigate will take 2-3 years to be built and delivered, why wait to make the order in 2018 or 2019 when you can order it in 2016 and make the final payment in 2018 or 2019. That is only for 1 frigate. Of course, other costs have to be considered. You don't take an idea literally. You don't just buy an MRF only without the other costs of piloting & maintaining it. If you read back, $44 billion has been corrected to 15.17% of 2014 $290 billion GDP and not 25%. Maybe if China attacks us next year, that will knock the sense out of any Filipino politicians and blame themselves why they did not took the Chinese threat seriously. If you can recall, China mecilessly murdered 64 Vietnamese soldiers without remorse in the Johnson South Reef skirmish.
DeleteI do wish we award the new frigate to South Korea. So as to get some Ulsan frigates and Pohang corvettes. I have seen those ships upclose and they look very impressive and well armed.
ReplyDeleteHappy new year !
ReplyDeleteSir max, I noticed that the engineering units of the armed forces are left out of the modernization program. I mean real modern equipment like tank bridge layer or a handful of dry support bridge which are useful for disaster response. Our country is prone to typhoon and flooding which result to damages in bridges. This tank bridge layer and dry support bridge can be assembled in few hours restoring traffic and and normalizing the economic activity in a particular area. What they have right now are just standard equipment for engineering constructions.
Renbios
Good day sir max,
ReplyDeleteI would like to inquire about any updates on the M113 apc from U.S?
wishing for you and the afp a fruitful new year
From:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/01/05/15/airbus-picks-philippines-international-training-hub
Sir Max, I think this is interesting. Airbus stressed "training" but it's highly possible, it's not just that they could/would offer, and extend to other services.
I would be curious to know if this affects the future acquisition of choppers from all other manufacturers including Augusta-Westland's AW109 and AW159. Increasing the chances of aircraft acquisitions of airbus products, not just the Panther and mideium lift choppers but also further acquisitions of more C 295s, C235s and C212s.
Note though: I am not too enamored of the A400M at this point, so I hope this Airbus move isn't in exchange for us acquiring those planes.
- Neo
I am also afraid that our PAF pilots might choose early retirement so that they can earn more money by flying commercial aircrafts. Sana inaayos na ngayon ang mga contracts ng mga bagong PAF pilots para maiwasan natin na lumipat sila sa mga commercial airlines. Yung ibang PAF student pilots kasi training and more flying hours lang ang habol nila sa PAF para magqualify sila as commercial pilots. Mahal kasi magaral sa flying school at kaunti lang magiging flying hours mo sa flying school pero sa PAF libre ang training at mas mataas ang flying hours nila kaya madali silang magqualify as commercial pilots because of experience. Mabuti nalang at hindi naman lahat ng PAF pilots ganun. Mas marami parin ang matino at nagsasakripisyo talaga para sa bayan at saludo ako sa kanila.
DeleteAny thoughts on the textron airland scorpion as a possible trainer/ISR/light attack platform for the PAF sir max?
ReplyDeletePasabat sir:
DeleteThe DND is surely thinking about it.
http://fortune.com/2014/12/17/textron-airland-scorpion/
I can see the appeal of this jet, it's selling point is that it's cheap to acquire and operate and that's what PH exactly wants. But being a prototype, I think the DND is waiting for some other country to purchase and try out these jets before they get them.
Honestly, I view the Scorpion as a CAS. That said, I wouldn't trade the Tucano for the Scorpion. The Tucano packs a punch and IMHO, it's the best CAS plane available.
But it doesn't mean the Scorpion and the Tucano can not co-exist in our AirForce. Yes, I know, different platforms with separate costs, but there's a need for Super Tucs and a need for Scorpions in our PAF.
Let's take Pnoy's speech as a sample:
“Kunyari you want to check on something, this is a jet, it gets there quick. Currently, we have very ancient planes like the Nomad na at ano pa ‘yung Islander yata ‘yung pangalan na nagha-hag lang ng coastline medyo parang… Kung tama ang tanda ko it’s between four to eight hours e. Ipapadala mo ‘yung tao doon or ‘yung eroplano, babalik ‘yung negative or baka ‘yung card at para mai-print mo is another “X” amount of time… So ang purpose nitong mga planes na ito is to retain those abilities and also this is the — ang tawag nila ‘lead-in’ parang ito ‘yung trainers for that whole concept of having fighters,” President Aquino explained.
The Super Tucanos might be fast for a propeller driven plane, but it's still slow. Obviously, the FA50s are faster than the Tucanos and Scorpions, but then again, why would send an FA50 just to check on something when you have a Scorpion? It's not like we're sending these Scorpions to war, we're sending them out for recon and presence, and "shoot-and-scoot" if worse comes to worse.
What I'm saying is:
A Scorpion can get us to places faster than propeller planes and would be much cost effective to use than FA50s. If what is adverstised is correct, then, we need these planes. We still need the Tucs, the FA50s and the (cough) Gripens, but it wouldn't really hurt us if we get these Scorpions.
But then again, what to do I know? :)
- Neo
China should stop harrassing our fishermen or else the Philippines will be forced to reveal their top secret weapons of mass destruction. We can attack and invade China anytime we want but Filipinos are loving Christians and Jesus said that we should love our enemies that is why we just forgive China and have pity on them. We can attack them with the use of thousands of our top secret intergalactic missiles that the Philippine Air Force is secretly hiding from the outer space. The Philippines can also send 5 of their highly advanced top secret stealth aircraft carriers. It is very stealthy. No one can see it because it is invisible. We can also send bombs to China using our top secret and highly trained flying manananggal. Isama pa natin si Cesar Montano na hindi pa natatalo sa bakbakan.
ReplyDeleteThe phil. gov should covertly insert robin padilla into China to destabilize it. Isama nadin nila si bibi gandang hari and daniel padilla. While they are at it they might as well sieze all assests belonging to ALL PRC businessmen in the country. (Henry Sy to name one)
Deletei want what you're smoking.
Deletecorny mo...
DeleteGees weez, where all these luni's have come from?
Delete2 Navy frigates to be equipped with missile systems
ReplyDeletehttps://ph.news.yahoo.com/2-navy-frigates-equipped-missile-000000757.html
Better than nothing!!!
Mabuhay ang Pilipinas!!!
kulas
In the past year as we had acquisition of 8 Amphibious Assault Vehicles, AAV7A1 is one of the world's best amphibious assault vehicles.It is a three-man crew and 21 combat troops from small arms fire, while the 400hp turbocharged diesel V-8 engine provides the AAV7A1 with a maximum speed of 72kmph on land. Also It has a cruising speed of 13kmph and an endurance of over seven hours in water, can conduct amphibious missions up to Sea State 3.
ReplyDeleteIs it true that S.Korea and Hyundai Shipyards is offering four (4) 1,400-ton Incheon Class Frigates for only $100 million dollars each. With our government's budget of $400 million, we should be able to buy 4 instead of just 2 Frigates.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/11/03/270170/israel-mulls-buying-s-korean-warships/
This cost is just purely on the hull and does not include the sensor and weaponry. These are to be installed by Israel themselves. Also the article is already old. Hence if you take into account yearly inflation costs, it would also be roughly the same as the DND PN estimate.
DeleteSo better buy the hull first and later the sensors and weaponry so that we can immediately have 4 frigates for arming if it takes longer time to build the hull than installing the weapons.
DeleteTHE REAL CREDIBLE DEFENSE FOR THE PHILIPPINES IN 2020
ReplyDeleteI. AIR FORCE
1. Air Force Base = 6 Bases
2. Multi-Role Fighter Jet = 24 Units
a. KF-X C103
b. 15.6 Meters
c. Mach 2
d. 2x Jet Engines
e. AESA Radar
f. Laser Guided Multi-Cam
g. Helmet Mounted Cueing System
h. Aerial Refueling System
i. 8x 3m, 2x 2m Anti-Aircraft (AAM) Wing Weapons
j. 6x 3m Anti-Aircraft (AAM) Internal Weapons
k. 1x 20mm Auto Cannon
l. 2x Crew
3. Light Multi-Role Fighter Jet = 48 Units
a. FA-50 Fighting Eagle
b. 13.1 Meters
c. Mach 1.5
d. 1x Jet Engine
e. MMAPA Radar / AESA Radar
f. Laser Guided Multi-Cam
g. 4x 3m, 2x 2m Anti-Aircraft (AAM) Wing Weapons
h. 1x 20mm Auto Cannon
i. 2x Crew
4. Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft = 1 Unit
a. EMB 145 AEW&C
b. 28.4 Meters
c. 834 km/h
d. 2x Jet Engines
e. AESA Radar
f. Aerial Refueling System
g. 8x Crew
5. Search and Rescue / Maritime Patrol Aircraft = 6 Units
a. CN-235
b. 21.4 Meters
c. 450 km/h
d. 2x Propeller Engines
e. AESA Radar
f. Multi-Cam
g. 3x Crew + 50x Passengers
6. Transport / Aerial Refueling Aircraft = 3 Units
a. C-130J Super Hercules
b. 29.7 Meters
c. 671 km/h
d. 4x Propeller Engines
e. 3x Crew + 92x Passengers
7. Attack Helicopter = 12 Units
a. Tiger HAD
b. 14 Meters
c. 315 km/h
d. Laser Guided Multi-Cam
e. Helmet Mounted Cueing System
f. 2x12 1.5m Anti-Helicopter (AAM)
g. 2x4 1.5m Anti-Tank (ASM) / 2x19 1m Rocket
h. 1x 30mm Gatling Gun
i. 2x Crew
8. Light Attack Helicopter = 24 Units
a. KLAH-X
b. 13 Meters
c. 268 km/h
d. Laser Guided Multi-Cam
e. 2x2 1.5m Anti-Tank (ASM) / 2x7 1m Rocket
f. 1x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
g. 2x Crew
9. Multi-Purpose Helicopter = 48 Units
a. KUH-1 Surion
b. 15 Meters
c. 259 km/h
d. Multi-Cam
e. 2x19 1m Rocket
f. 2x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
g. 2x Crew + 16x Passengers
10. Utility Helicopter = 12 Units
a. CH-47 Chinook
b. 30.1 Meters
c. 315 km/h
d. 3x 7.62mm Multi-Purpose Machin Gun
e. 3x Crew + 55x Passengers
II. ARMY
1. Army Base = 6 Bases
2. Main Battle Tank = 48 Units
a. K2 Black Panther
b. 10.8 Meters
c. 70 km/h
d. Tracked
e. Armored Body
f. Multi-Cam
g. 1x 120mm Cannon
h. 1x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
i. 1x 7.62mm Multi-Purpose Machin Gun
j. 3x Crew
3. Infantry Fighting Vehicle = 96 Units
a. K21
b. 6.9 Meters
c. 70 km/h Road, 7 km/h Water
d. Tracked
e. Armored Body
f. Amphibious
g. Multi-Cam
h. 1x 40mm Auto Cannon
i. 2x ATGM Launchers
j. 1x 7.62mm Multi-Purpose Machin Gun
k. 3x Crew + 9x Passengers
4. Multi-Purpose Vehicle = 192 Units
a. Dzik 4
b. 5.7 Meters
c. 100 km/h
d. 4x4 Wheeled
e. Bullet Proof Body
f. 1x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
g. 1x Crew + 10x Passengers
5. Utility Vehicle = 384 Units
a. Raba H18
b. 7.7 Meters
c. 100 km/h
d. 6x6 Wheeled
e. 1x Crew + 25x Passengers
III. NAVY
1. Navy Base = 3 Bases
2. Frigate = 6 Units
a. FFX Batch-II Frigate-Class
b. 122 Meters
c. 55 km/h
d. 16x 3.6m RIM-7 Sea Sparrow Anti-Aircraft Missile
e. 2x4 4.6m Harpoon Anti-Ship Missile
f. 1x21 2.7m RIM-116 Rolling Airframe CIWS Missile
g. 2x3 Torpedo
h. 1x 127mm Cannon
i. 2x 30mm Auto Cannon
j. 1× 20mm Phalanx CIWS Gatling Gun
k. 4x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
l. 1x Anti-Submarine Helicopter
m. 2x 7.5m Rigid Hulled Inflatable Boat
3. Fast Attack Craft = 12 Units
a. Roussen-Class Fast Attack Craft
b. 62 Meters
c. 65 km/h
d. 2x4 4.6m Harpoon Anti-Ship Missile
e. 1x21 2.7m RIM-116 Rolling Airframe CIWS Missile
f. 2x2 Torpedo
g. 1x 76mm Cannon
h. 1× 20mm Phalanx CIWS Gatling Gun
i. 2x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
j. 1x 7.5m Rigid Hulled Inflatable Boat
4. Fast Patrol Boat = 24 Units
a. Swiftships 35m Fast Patrol Boat
b. 35 Meters
c. 75 km/h
d. 1x 40mm Auto Cannon
e. 2x 50 Cal Heavy Machine Gun
f. 1x 7.5m Rigid Hulled Inflatable Boat
5. Multi-Purpose Attack Craft = 48 Units
a. MPAC MK2
b. 17 Meters
c. 85 km/h
d. 1x 20mm Auto Cannon
e. 2x 7.62mm Multi-Purpose Machin Gun
f. 3x Crew + 18x Passengers
Have you calculated the acquisition and maintenance projection of this dream? You forgot the submarines and ground based radars. Make sure you wake up on time for school. That's more important.
DeleteIV. MISSILE DEFENSE FORCE
Delete1. Base Missile Defense = 6 Bases
a. 1x Rotating Long-Range Radar
b. 32x VLS 5.8 Patriot Anti-Ballistic Missile
c. 64x VLS 3.6m RIM-7 Sea Sparrow Anti-Aircraft Missile
d. 32x VLS 5.5m Tomahawk Subsonic Cruise Guided Missile
e. 4x Rotating 2x4 1.52m FIM-92 Stinger Anti-Aircraft Missile with 1× 20mm Phalanx CIWS Gatling Gun
2. Mobile Anti-Ballistic Missile Long-Range SAM = 12 Units
a. 8x8 Wheeled
b. Long-Range Radar System
c. 4x 5.8 Patriot Anti-Ballistic Missile
d. 3x Crew
3. Mobile Anti-Aircraft Medium-Range SAM = 12 Units
a. 8x8 Wheeled
b. Medium-Range Radar System
c. 2x2 3.6m RIM-7 Sea Sparrow Anti-Aircraft Missile
d. 3x Crew
4. Mobile Anti-Aircraft Short-Range SAM = 12 Units
a. 8x8 Wheeled
b. 2x4 1.52m FIM-92 Stinger Anti-Aircraft Missile
c. 1× 20mm Phalanx CIWS Gatling Gun
d. 3x Crew
5. Mobile Anti-Tank Short-Range SSM = 12 Units
a. 8x8 Wheeled
b. Laser Guided Multi-Cam
c. 2x8 1.1m FGM-148 Javelin Anti-Tank Missile
d. 1× 20mm Auto Cannon
e. 3x Crew
yes i agree brother we need base missile defense system, and i didnt include the submarines because if need to strengthen our navy, we must increase first the number of our frigates and fast attack crafts, then buy submarines if we have money, frigates and fast attack crafts are capable of detecting submarines, and also if we strengthen our navy, we must strengthen first our air force then 2nd the army, we must increase first the number of our fighter jets its very important, just like the war saying "who controls the air, controls the ground". and also i know we dont have budget until 2020, but we need to catched up quickly, we must create a military party in the philippines to push the agenda to modernized quickly our defense to secure our country and borders.
i just put a non fancy military defense because i know we dont have money, just a "minimum real credible defense". i suggest to Pnoy to strengthen first the air force and base missile defense system. if we have many fighter jets or light fighter jets like fa-50, china will have a big problems on us, than few frigates and submarines, because fighter jets are more threat than warships, and also it can protect our air space to the bombers of china.
DeleteJames Sword is right. We need submarines. It is an effective weapon against Chinese warships.
ReplyDeleteAttack Submarine = 3 Units
Deletea. KSS-II
b. 65 Meters
c. 30 km/h Surfaced, 45 km/h Submerged
d. 4x Sub Harpoon
e. 8x3 Torpedo
heres your request brother, korean submarine suits for us. but its much expensive than frigates, double the price or more i think. if our government wants to buy, count me in brother.
Tomorrow is the 2nd stage pre-bid conference for the ships right? Really thirsty for some development of this project. Also, when will we see the 2 armed 109s? There should be pictures by now.
ReplyDeleteWith regards to security patrol within our naval borders.. which is our main goal...ships are more needed than jets..
ReplyDeleteShips are slow but they have more endurance.. and can function as off shore radar platform..they can detect both air and below surface intrusion. .
Thats why it is best to invest on frigate with state of the art sensors..
Then next is the strike/inteception phase..these is where multi role or air superiority aircraft s are needed..
I'm going to start with a quote from Department of National Defense Undersecretary Fernando Manalo:
ReplyDelete“What I know for sure is that we have an existing requirement for multi-role fighter aircraft, acquisition of additional FA-50s depends on KAI and how much it will invest to upgrade and further develop the F/A-50s.”
- This is worrisome. I mean, I'm in favor of adding FA-50's as I think it's a high end LIFT with decent combat abilities. And I'm going to go as far as saying - there's a need for the Scorpion jets in our PAF too.
But I wouldn't want these additional FA-50's (and Scorpions) if it means we're going to get them instead of a real MRF.
Manalo is talking about FA-50 upgrades (I think it's about BVR capablities), It's good to have more capable FA-50's but those aren't substitutes for real MRFs. I'm afraid, with an upgraded additional units of FA-50s, the DND would prolong the acquisition of a legit MRF.
Worse case scenario, we end up with 18 FA-50s (6 of which are BVR capable) + a squadron of Tucanos.
My only hope is the quote pertains to adding FA-50s if KAI upgrades them AND on top of those additional planes, we get the MRFs.
Let me dream a little about the types and number of jets/fighters the PAF may REALISTICALLY have by 2023:
12 Super Tucanos
12 Scorpions
18 FA-50s
12 Gripen NGs
- Neo
hey neo, why dont we buy all AESA(BVR) FA-50? why only 6 units? its better we buy at least 48 Units of AESA FA-50 as a foundation of our air force, AESA FA-50 can carry 4x 3.7m AIM-120 AMRAAM Anti-Aircraft Missile or 2x 3.8m Air-Launched Harpoon Anti-Ship Missile, i think its more than enough for the non expensive light multi-role jet like FA-50, then after we completed the 48 units, we buy the full blown 4.5 Multi-Role Fighter Jets, i suggest we wait for the korean indonesian fighter jet program, the KF-X C103 is much better than Gripen NG, f-16 Viper, Typhoon, Rafale and f-35. and i believe the price of it is like Gripen NG and F-16 Viper, so its cheeper because its korean made.
DeleteFor me sir I hope the Military should aim for this and hope the succedding administration supports it
Delete24x General Dynamics F-16C Fighting Falcon or McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet
12x KAI F-50 Golden Eagle
8x Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano
Probably 6x Frigate, 8x Corvette, 3x Coastal Submarines and 24x Missiles Boats/Fast Attack Crafts
Echo blaster, i am also interested with Korea's future KAI KF-X 5th generation stealth fighter but of course we have to examine first before we decide since they are still in the stage of building a prototype. I'm sure the PAF and DND are also looking into it. Japan is also developing their new Mitsubishi ATD-X Shin-shin which is also a 5th gen stealth fighter. I'm sure the Koreans can offer us a good deal with their KF-X. If it is true that KF-X and Gripen NG will be similar in price, then for sure KF-X will be a strong contender for the future MRF acquisitions.
Deleteecho blaster -- let me quote myself on this:
Delete"Worse case scenario, we end up with 18 FA-50s (6 of which are BVR capable) + a squadron of Tucanos."
Give emphasis on the words: "Worst case scenario".
Because if I'm reading it right, the DND wants a more capable FA-50 to enable it to mimic a real MRF. I think they're going to delay the acquisition of a real MRF because in their minds, an upgraded FA-50 would suffice.
I said six, because the contract for purchased FA-50s stands at 12, and those could be delivered even before KAI starts integrating BVR on their planes. It's quite possible the follow-up order would be 6 FA-50s with BVR.
Please keep in mind that, BVR integration will cost us big money. It's not cheap. And please keep in mind that as "un-expensive" as an FA-50 might seem, it never is truly cheap to maintain and operate such planes, specially for a country like ours with misplaced priorities.
And another thing -- if we ever buy 48 FA-50s, it just means we're never going to get real MRFs, at least not in the next 20 years.
- Neo
1 $40-50 million FA-50 (with BVR) can buy 20-25 $2 million land-based missiles w/c are easier on the budget, can be delivered faster, provide us with immediate & more offensive striking firepower & defensive support for our current PN ships and operated & maintained at less cost than an FA-50. Start with the missiles first, then the FA-50s/can follow next. Long-range (300-500 km) cruise missiles does not require FA-50s and Frigates to bring them to the target. They are needed more in protecting & counter-attack capability to our PN/PCG ships within our EEZ.
DeleteHi anonymous 01/10.. as what sir max has been saying, the coastal battery is a high prioriity project and it has been progressing behind the public eye, and IMHO, its going to be a weapon that's going to be at par or even better than any military in the sector. Notice the AFP rewording their minimum credible defense to minimum credible deterrence? It's not just a change in slogan, it's a shift in strategy. So let them do their jobs and get their minimum number of planes and ships, we severely lack assets and missiles aren't going to fill the lacking capabilities we have.
DeleteTo put it simply, yes we're not going to match China plane by plane, ship by ship, but we wi still acquire these assets because we need them. BUT.. they're going to have the cover of missiles.
The DND is not dumb to not know it's our best weapon.
- Neo
If we engage China's PLA naval ships at Spratly Islands with our frigates & corvettes, we will incur a lot of casualties of sailors. If we use MRFs only, only a few pilots will be lost. If we use long-range anti-ship cruise missiles only, we will not lose any soldier. So the best option is buy the missiles first, the MRFs next and the naval ships last to deny China the ability to control Spratly Islands. Presence of PN/PCG ships in Spratly Islands has no effect at all in preventing China with it's reef reclamations. Try hitting Mabini and Mischief Reef with 10 missiles each, China will probably stop it's reclamation. It will not counter-attack and target our mainland-based missiles bec. it is afraid that the US will get involved.Give the US Navy & Air Force personnel full unlimited accomodation in our military bases in Palawan so when China attacks our bases, US lives aside from Filipino lives will get lost. That will definitely make the US very furious.
ReplyDeleteyes your right brother, warships are expensive, fewer, slower and sitting duck because china have many numbers of destroyers, frigates and corvettes and the worst they have 2 aircraft carriers with 60 fighter jets, then our new frigates will be destroyed in the brief war of sea and just like youve said many casualties. yes your right, air base near west philippine sea with many long ranged cruise missiles and protected with many fighter jets and SAM missiles.
DeleteSir,
DeleteRealistically Philippines cannot match or actively engage China with its Military Resources presently. This is what they want to us to do, provoke an action from us.
Because our Military is weak, less support from some Government officials (China's Payroll)
And I commend some government officials and Military leaders for their restraint because we are not ready and prepared yet to defend our lands.
With regards to your Cruise Missiles suggestion, have you have an idea an idea how much one missile cost?
According to Wikipedia a Single Tomahawk cost US$1.59m, Launcher, and command center not included.
Our Military does not even have a Surface to Air Missile capability and even this can be defeated by
Electronic Radar Jamming and Countermeasures.
You can buy more missiles on land than on ships because you can use the cost of the ship's hull to buy additional missiles and the operating, maintenance & personnel costs is less on land-based platforms.
DeleteSir,
DeleteIf you are putting our precious resources on missiles..
How will you deal the treat of submarines?
Missiles..cannot patrol..our seas..
Missiles.cannot be used on Humanitarian missions..
I consider a missile the ammunition. .and the ship the rifle. .
Instead of frigates, use the smaller but many & fast civilian PCG MPACs fitted with depth charges in swarm tactics supported by long-range land-based missiles.If our Hamilton class Cutters are incapable of engaging even the Chinese maritime vessels, how much more the submarines. Mere presence of PN ships will not deter China from doing it's reclamation. Our PN ships will just be target practice for Chinese submarines but missiles can inflict damage to Chinese naval ships & maritime vessels.
DeleteEh sino naman nagsabi sayo na walang mamatay na sundalo kapag binomba ng Pilipinas ang Mabini and Mischief?
ReplyDeleteMay dahilan kung baket hindi gumawa ng military action ang Vietnam laban sa China ng sinira ng China ang mga barko nila, o kaya ng nagtayo ng oil rig ang China. Hindi dapat magkaroon ang dahilan ang China na gumamit ng buong pwersa nito at burahin ng tuluyan ang claim ng Vietnam dahil wala na sila lakas mag-claim.
Subukan mo paulanan ng missile ang Mischief at Mabini at malamang hindi tayo tulungan ng kahit sinong bansa, kahit na ng US.
Agree ako dito. Kaya napakaimportante magkaroon ng matalino na leader. Ang digmaan ay hindi sukatan ng tapang. Aanhin mo ang tapang mo kung matatalo ka lang. Matatapang naman tayo at handa naman tayong lumaban para sa bayan pero hindi pa tayo handa sa ngayon. Diskarte ang nagpapanalo sa digmaan at hindi ang emosyon o init ng ulo. Kaya palaging sinasabi ng mga eksperto sa digmaan na ang una daw na magpapaputok ang syang matatalo. Saykolojical warper daw ang tawag dyan.
DeleteKasasabi ko lang na walang mamamatay na sundalo pag binomba mo ng cruise missiles ang Mischief at Mabini Reefs. May nakita ka na bang missile na may sakay na piloto hahaha Nakakatawa ka. Sa mainland Oo. Papaano mo naman alam na hindi tayo tutulungan ng US pag may namatay ring mga US personnel sa military bases natin kapag binomba ng China. Duon natin masusubukan kung may silbi ang Mutual Defense Treaty natin o EDCA agreement sa US para magka-alaman na.
DeleteSige pagpalagay na sundin ng mga kano yang gusto mo na doon na sila tumigil sa mga base naten, tapos malalamn nila na ginamit mo lang sila para "human shields" para hindi tayo labanan ng China. Ano sa tingen mo gagawen ng US?
DeleteCommon sense lang, i-pu-pullout nila ang pwersa nila. At i-ko-kondena tayo hindi lang ng US pati na ng UN. Sabihen mo na may mali din ang China sa reklamasyon nila, pero iba pa den kung ikaw ang unang gumamit ng lakas militar.
Gaano ako ka sigurado dito? Hindi ako sigurado, pero hindi ko i-su-sugal ang mga buhay ng sundalo nasa Palawan sa pag-a-assume ko na tutulungan tayo ng mga kano.
Sa resbak ng China, sigurado may mamatay.
Pero sige, kung ang akala mo eh yun bombahin ang Mabini at Mischief reef eh ang pinaka-maganda plano, eh di na kita ko-kontrahin. Kunbg saan ka masaya, oks na yun.
Ikaw lang ang nagsabi na gamiting “Human Shields” ang mga US Soldiers sa mga military bases natin. Hindi nating bobombahin ang Mischief at Mabini Reef ng walang dahilan. China ang magpro-provoke sa atin na gawin yon. At magagawa lang natin yon pag may sapat na tayong dami ng mga coastal-based AShM/SAM Missiles na pang offensive/defensive support sa mga PCG MPACs. Ang strategy diyan ay ipadala natin ang civilian PCG MPACs sa mga reefs para tigilan ang reclamation, hulihin ang mga intruders, paikutan ng mga PCG MPACs ang mga Chinese naval ships (4-to-1) kumpiskahin ang mga gamit nila at okupahan ang mga reefs ng mga PCG maritime police. Kapag pumalag ang China at pinasabugan ng naval ships nila ang kahit isa sa civilian PCG MPACs natin, yan ang magiging hudyat para tirahin na natin ang tsina ng mga missiles natin dahil may legitimate reason na tayo para gumanti. Reresbakan tayo ng Tsina na tirahin tayo sa Spratly Islands at hindi makikialam ang US diyan pero pag tinira ng Tsina ang mainland natin ay ibang issue na yan. Malamang na tutulungan tayo ng US imbis na iiwanan dahil ang Spratly Islands dispute ang pinagtatalunan at hindi ang mainland natin na walang karapatan ang Tsina para atakihin. Ikakatuwiran ng Tsina na galing sa mainland natin ang missiles kaya tinira niya. Bakit ang Chinese naval ships ay hindi ba galing sa mainland China rin.
DeleteI think our PN is not yet ready for a blue water environment naval force with just a few Cutters/Corvettes against China’s PLA Navy. Our PN ships have no chance against Chinese naval ships. It would be better and more useful to transfer the old PN ships to the PCG in enforcing our maritime laws within our Exclusive Economic Zone & patrolling our coastlines. Our PN actually has no real blue-water battleships just like PAF which has no real MRFs. What the PN have are only 2 lightly-armed, refurbished former USCG Cutters. I just hope the 2 modern Frigates our government will buy will be fully-armed and complete with ECMs/Decoy Systems, SSR Radar system, AAW/ASW/EW Sensors/Processing systems, 127-mm/62 gun, 16-cell VLS for SAM/ASROC missiles, Phalanx Block1B CIWS, 324 mm (12.8 in) torpedo tubes, Anti-torpedo System and an ASW helicopter. Even just One (1) Frigate only as long as it is fully-armed. Two (2) lightly-armed Frigates cannot survive a missile/torpedo attack. Or better still, just buy 1 Frigate and 1 diesel-electric training submarine like the Japanese Harushio-class submarine.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyashio-class_submarine
weve just wasted our money on buying second hand Cutters which is not a warship, and buying patrol corvettes with no fire power or missile, and buying other patrol boats or support utility boats and trainer submarine. why dont we focus our money on full blown warship frigate and light warship like fast attach craft, just increase the number of this 2, we will have minimum real credible defense. and dont buy trainer submarine, just buy the real attack submarine, just train all the crew in abroad, maybe in 6 months they are operational. so that we dont waste money on trainer subs. the same also in air force, focus the money on these 2, full multi-role jets and light multi-role jets and increase their numbers, so that we will have credible defense fast, asia now is in the arms race, if were sleeping and dont catch up quickly, we will have the same fate like in WWII with Japan, in modern day with China. i dont want to be again subdued and humiliated our citizens by our enemies, we filipinos must stand up on our own, and not just relying on our friends like USA, im sure we dont like to be called "pabigat". at least if we fight side by side with our friends in other countries, they will proud of us too. we need to strengthen our military fast. we need to prepare for the worst even though we dont like wars. if the enemy sees us strong, he will be thinking again to fight us, and at least the peace is for long and he will honor and respect our borders.
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harushio-class_submarine
DeleteA lot of people propose an expensive military hardware which is impossible to happen right nowadays. We must finish first the first phase of modernization before we jump to a higher level of defense. I’m pretty sure Aquino Government is doing their best to modernize our AFP. Procurement of 12 FA-50 is a good start and next will be this two new frigates, Missile defense system, military radar, SSV, Soltham, vest protection for Soldiers, UAV, Radio communication and hopefully MBT’s. With this, we have already attain a minimum defense and well be improve in the next level.
ReplyDeleteI think twenty (20) Units of low-cost ($10 milion) & extra fast (50 knots) MPACs fitted with 1× 940-round 20 mm M61A1 Vulcan 6-barreled Gatling cannon, 1 x Phalanx CIWS, 2 x torpedo tube launchers and depth charges is a better alternative than buying just one (1) lightly-armed $200 million Frigate. Two (2) sea squadrons (of 10 MPACs each) used in swarm tactics & supported by a Sea-State 6 Supply Ship are more effective and deadlier against the big Chinese naval & maritime ships even at the outer edges of our EEZ than just using 1 Frigate
ReplyDeleteHi Sir,
DeleteFast attack craft or missile boats are good..but they lack range and endurance. .
Suggest develop Pag Asa island to be a forward operating base for this missike boats
I
I agree with you Sir.Very good suggestion.
DeleteSuportahan nalang natin ang gobyerno sa kanilang mga diskarte kung alin ang gusto nilang uunahin. Ako man din ay nagtataka kung bakit priority ang frigate kung presence lang naman talaga ang gusto natin. Syempre hindi mag-eengage dyan ang PN or PCG into a fire fight kahit paputokan pa sila and i believe that is a wise decision kasi hindi pa tayo handang makipagbakbakan. Bakit hindi nalang yung mga existing yet still capable ships ng PN or PCG ang papatrolyahin sa West Philippine Sea total presence lang naman talaga ang habol natin at ayaw nating magka putokan. Kahit unarmed ship lang ng coast guard ang papatrolyahin natin. Pero kagaya ng sinabi ko sa unahan, supportahan nalang natin ang gobyerno sa kanilang diskarte kahit ilan sa atin ay hindi sang-ayon kasi yung mga miltary planners natin ay may sapat na kakayahan. Maaring tama sila at ako ay mali. Marami din tayong hindi alam tungkol sa tunay na situation. Magtiwala nalang tayo sa mga taong nagpaplano kung paano patatakbuhin ang AFP modernization.
ReplyDeletePaano ka magtitiwala sa mga taong nagpplano at nagpapatakbo sa bansa naten? Mabibilang mo sa dalawang kamay ang mga opisyales ng bansa naten na malinis at may pakinabang na inuuna nila ang bayan bago ang sarili. Our country will only improve if the people of this country elect official the likes of de Lima. And lets face it the people commenting on this blog are a minority compared to the vast hordes of people who elect leaders like erap binay and enrile. Even within pnoys own cabinet and party there are unpatriotic and corrupt officials. Our own businessmen and captains of industry are unpatriotic. We few people who do care about the countrys capability to defend its sovereign rights and territory are but a minorty. I do not want to sound or come off as defeatist but reality is reality. Unpatriotism should be punishable by death. Why have a armed forces when they do not have the capability to do their jobs properly? My two cents.
ReplyDeleteTama po kayo. Marami talagang magnanakaw na pulitiko sa bansa natin. Kung ako lang ang masusunod, hindi ako papayag na kulungan lang ang magiging kaparusahan nina Enrile, Estrada, Revilla, Napoles, Binay, Purisima at marami pang iba. Malaking halaga ang ninakaw nila so dapat mabigat din ang parusa para sa kanila. Dapat sa kanila death penalty at isequester lahat ng properties nila. Kaya maraming mga pulitiko ang nai-engganyo na magnakaw dahil simpleng kulungan lang ang parusa. Kung mahuhuli kang nagnakaw ng manok panabong ngayon, malamang kulong ka agad kinabukasan at doon ka pa matutulog sa loob ng CR dahil sa sobrang siksikan sa loob ng city jail pero kung ang Senador na ang magnanakaw ng bilyones sa kaban ng bayan doon sila makukulong sa exclusive at malinis na jail o kaya doon sa pinakamahal at modernong hospital. Sarap ng buhay ng mga magnanakaw sa gobyerno. Kung ako ang magiging presidente, walang matitirang congressman at senador. Lahat ipapapatay ko.
ReplyDeleteAmen!!
DeleteI expect that 15 to 20 years from now, 80% of Spratly Island will become part and administer by China. I'm pretty sure that our Government knows this already and China will do it by force. That is why I am very supportive to whatever plan and projects by the AFP on their way to modernization. Better equip and defense to our remaining island chain in Spratly Island particular those with the Ayungin shoal. Someone will look into some Chinese website and you'll going to see whats the masterplan of this Chinese Communist Government. With their fast pace of modernization, meaning they are preparing for a war. Please see some link below:
ReplyDelete1. as preparation on better and perfect invasion of spratly,
https://ph.news.yahoo.com/china-builds-ports-helipads-spratly-000000560.html
2. Chinese modernization
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=119943
3. And this is for sure
http://chinadailymail.com/2013/10/15/six-wars-china-is-sure-to-fight-in-the-next-50-years/
I agree with you Lem1, China isn't amassing a large army without ever using it. China wants to take over the world. No, it's no joke. They don't conform with the rules, instead they make their own. The Chinese are just buying their time, and waiting for the the right time to challenge the old guard (The US).
DeleteChina is an imminent threat. And still will be in the coming years. The sad thing is, we're still not funding/prioritizing the AFP modernization.
- Neo
Agreable with you Noe and Lem1.. You two has the right direction with regards on the future of our Spratly Island and country as well. Government must prioritize the modernization. I'm sure this is not just a minor problem of our future our Children and grand children. Iba ang mindset ng Chinese Government.
Deleteyes your right...some more news
Deletehttp://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/01/12/1411996/china-builds-ports-helipads-spratly-islands
How can we protect our country if regional war breaks out this year 2015 w/o US help.We cannot afford to buy and match 1-on-1 China’s 100 naval combat ships & 2,000 combat planes but we can afford to buy & match them 1-to-1 with 2,100 long-range & mobile land-based AshM Tomahawk & SAM Hawk Missiles. Our government is capable of producing the defense budget for 2,100 missiles which will cost $4.2 billion (P189 billion) + another $4.2 billion (P189 billion) for the missile launchers, personnel, operations & maintenance expenses of the missiles. Better buy them this year & be prepared early than not at all. We have nothing to protect MetroManila if China launches it’s missiles from Mischief & Mabini Reefs, warships & long-range bombers/Attack planes. The missiles is the only military option we have for our country’s offensive & defensive capability. 12 FA-50s & 4 Frigates cannot protect us.
ReplyDeleteAnd at least meron... buti na yung kisa sa itak at pana.
DeleteDapat talaga iprioritize natin yung missile defense system natin. Pangalawa yung anti-ship missiles tapos palaksin ang ground troops. Give them more m60 machine guns, equip them with .338 lapua magnum sniper rifles with night vision capability, more RPG, mortars, howitzers and battle tanks. Prioritize na rin natin transport helicopters like Chinook to mobilize troops and ammunition.
ReplyDeleteHay nako!!! ang daming mga batang isip dito...mga LOL, kung ano2 nalang mga sinasabi nila...saan tayo kukuha nang mga sang damak2 na pera pang bili nyan...?
ReplyDeleteKung nagbabasa ka ng budget ng gobyerno natin ay malalaman mong may pera tayong pambili at kung walang kurakot sa gobyerno ay mas lalo tayong maraming perang pambili...
DeleteDagdag ko lang.. ang pondo nakalaan sa DND eh below average kumpara sa standard, kumbaga, nag-mo-modernize na nga tayo pero kulang pa din ang budget.
DeleteMay pera naman, ayaw lang i-allocate ng mga pulitiko at iba pang mataas na opisyal ng pamahalaan ang tamang pondo.
Dalawa lang ang dahilan:
1. Hangad lang eh maka-kulimbat lamang, na kung di sila makikinabang wala sila paki-alam.
2. Maka-kaliwa sila, pa-sweldo ng China na gagawen lahat para isabotahe ang modernisasyon.
Anong budget tinutukoy mo? Pwede pambili yun kung di mo pasasahurin mga sundalo. Wag na rin imaintain yung mga existing assets. Akala mo siguro sa budget eh pambili lang ng bago. Lol!
DeleteAng dami palang komocomment na mga pulitiko dito o kaya mga kamag-anak ng mga pulitiko na dapat noon pa binura na sa mundo. Kung hindi dahil sa inyo mga walang hiyang magnanakaw kayo matagal na sanang umunlad ang capability ng AFP natin. Sa mga walang hiyang magnanakaw na pulitiko dyan na nagkocomment dito: Ang sarap patayin nyong lahat. Ang sarap nyong pugutan ng ulo. O ano tinamaan kayo? MGA BWESIT KAYO!!! Sarap nyong ubusin lahat pati pamilya nyo.
DeleteYou are barking at the wrong tree. Pulitiko ba kumukurakot sa pera ng militar? May kanya kanyang allocation yan bata. Anong plano mo? Ireallign ang budget? DAP pa nga lang unconstitutional na daw eh, yung paglipat pa kaya ng budget mula sa ibang sangay ng gobyerno papunta sa military. Kelangan irevise ang consti, yun yun. Mas palakihin dapat ang porsyento na mapupunta sa militar. Palibhasa takot sa kudeta ang may pakana ng 1987 consti kaya ganyan. Ayaw nya lumakas ang militar. Ironic kase anak nya ngayon ang nagpupumilit palakasin ang military natin.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOut of topic Sir Max, how true that U.S will donate 2 sherpa c23b light aircraft to afp? do you have details on this EDA.
ReplyDeletethank's
Ang dami palang komocomment na mga pulitiko dito o kaya mga kamag-anak ng mga pulitiko na dapat noon pa binura na sa mundo. Kung hindi dahil sa inyo mga walang hiyang magnanakaw kayo matagal na sanang umunlad ang capability ng AFP natin. Sa mga walang hiyang magnanakaw na pulitiko dyan na nagkocomment dito: Ang sarap patayin nyong lahat. Ang sarap nyong pugutan ng ulo. O ano tinamaan kayo? MGA BWESIT KAYO!!! Sarap nyong ubusin lahat pati pamilya nyo...
ReplyDelete