This discusses the current situation in the West Philippine Sea, debunks the assumption made by Philippine politicians and policymakers, and provide an attainable and practical solution for the Philippine government without being too much dependent on a singular proposal in nature. Many, including those with military and political experience and knowledge, think that China, a military and economic powerhouse, is an invincible force that would be impossible to counter or stop from doing whatever it wants in the West Philippine Sea, including stumping without regard on the historical and lawful backgrounds of its fellow claimants, and the emphasis on peace, stability, and rule of law by the world's major powers. MaxDefense and Prof. Custodio thinks otherwise, and here is the full script of the entire post.
(Special thanks to Prof. Jose Antonio Custodio for allowing MaxDefense to make this possible. Photos, and the words underneath them, are provided by MaxDefense, and does not in any way represent Prof. Custodio's own views.)
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| Photos taken by a Philippine Air Force patrol aircraft as of February 19, 2015 shows the reclamation works done by the Chinese in the Spratlys. Photo taken from Inquirer.net. |
PART 1 - WHAT'S NEXT IN DISPUTE WITH CHINA? Let's start with assessment of current situation:
The massive construction and reclamation activities being done by the People’s Republic of China at the West Philippine Sea have caused widespread concern in the international community.
The Philippine government has seen fit to elevate the threat of Chinese territorial ambitions as the most serious one affecting the country which is a clear break of the nearly half a century prioritization of internal security concerns by the Philippine defense establishment. There has been a slow but steady move to refocus the Armed Forces of the Philippines away from internal security towards external defense in the past few years. It is hoped that eventually this will provide the Philippines the capability to deal with external threats much more effectively.
Although the Philippine government has filed a case against the Chinese government, it is obviously not enough to prevent Beijing from continuing its expansion into the West Philippine Sea and complementary actions have to be done by Manila to defend its territorial claims in the area and its Western Exclusive Economic Zone.
A look at the maps provides a clearer picture as to the threat posed by China’s reclamation and base building activities in the West Philippine Sea.
Reclamation not only directed at PH
Although there has been much debate in the Philippines about the reason for the construction and reclamation of the Chinese with one side stating that it is Beijing’s retaliation for the arbitration case and the other side contesting that assertion, the scope of their activities reveals that it is not only directed against the Philippines but at the much more comprehensive installations established by the Vietnamese in the same area.
Hence once these Chinese bases become fully operational, it will not just make life more difficult for the Philippines but also pose a clear threat to Vietnam’s own garrisons.
In fact, in comparison to Vietnam’s installations, those of the Philippines have remained rudimentary in nature and will not require excessive pressure from the Chinese to dislodge and would not seem to justify Beijing’s expenditure of resources.
Once China neutralizes the installations of its rivals at the West Philippine Sea, what role in area denial will these new bases of theirs play?
These then raises the question as to who else are these reclamation activities by Beijing directed against and obviously the ultimate target is not just the Philippines, nor Vietnam but eventually the United States of America.
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| Chinese reclamation at South Johnson Reef, also known as Mabini Reef, which is part of the Kalayaan Group of Islands in the West Philippine Sea. Photo from the Armed Forces of the Philippines. |
PH garrisons for dropping of international case?
For the Philippines, it will be hard-pressed to deal with the increased operational tempo of Chinese vessels and aircraft operating from the new installations and if it does not improve on its capability soon then a nightmare scenario will ensue.
This may in the future, result in the elimination of most of the Philippine installations from the West Philippine Sea either through Chinese actions or voluntarily by Manila itself or the Chinese may allow the Filipino garrisons to stay in exchange for onerous terms advantageous to Beijing such as the exploitation of our EEZ, the dropping of all cases filed in international courts and even unrestricted passage of Chinese military vessels through our internal waters and airspace towards the Pacific Ocean to challenge the Americans.
Threat at Scarborough Shoal
While focus has been maintained on the Chinese reclamation at the West Philippine Sea, Beijing reactivated another front against Manila by undertaking aggressive actions against Filipino fishermen at Scarborough Shoal which had been seized from the Philippines in 2012.
What is disturbing about Scarborough Shoal is that it lies 138 miles from Zambales, Luzon and it is very near Philippine centers of gravity such as the capital city of Manila and the political and economic complex of Central Luzon, National Capital Region, and the Southern Luzon and the major ports and airports at Manila, Subic, and Clark.
From there, the Chinese can easily interdict and harass Philippine lines of communication and movement.
Although China denies that it will develop the shoal as a military installation, given Beijing’s penchant for doublespeak, it would be foolish to not consider such a possibility in the near future because the shoal provides the Chinese the best possible opportunity to bottle up not just Philippine air and maritime assets but also to monitor, contain and restrict United States military movements.
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| Philippine lawmakers and soldiers placing a Philippine flag on the exposed portion of the Scarborough Shoal years before the Chinese Coast Guard took permanent position around it since 2012. |
PART 2 - IS CHINA INVINCIBLE? Debunking Philippine assumptions on the territorial dispute:
Manila has consistently resorted to diplomatic protests against Beijing’s unilateral actions and frequently shies away from direct confrontation with Chinese maritime vessels at the West Philippine Sea.
Oftentimes, Filipino fishermen are left to their own devices in confrontations with Chinese maritime vessels as there is no escort provided by the Philippine Coast Guard.
The question then is why is the Philippine response conducted in such a manner? The following Philippine assumptions in the territorial dispute are the reasons that explain that response:
1. China is strong and US is weak:
It is a widespread belief in the Philippines that China is a rising power and the tendency is to overstate the capabilities of China either due to ignorance or to pro-Beijing advocacies.
China's economic strength is trumpeted as a sign that it will overtake the United States which because of prolonged economic troubles is then automatically designated a weakening power.
The fact that the Chinese government strives to provide positive data to project its strength while taking steps to cover up or suppress not so flattering data that some economists have pointed out as serious flaws in China’s economy is frequently overlooked in the Philippines.
Meanwhile, the economic problems of the United States has been added to a litany of perceived grievances by Filipinos on American reliability as an ally thus making the Philippines question the military alliance that it has with the US instead of figuring out ways to derive opportunities for the Philippines. Unfortunately, the Philippines in general has a very black and white appreciation of the alliance it has with the US.
An example of this is the recent US willingness to deploy ships to monitor the establishment of Chinese bases at the West Philippine Sea has boosted the morale of the Philippines however it must be determined as to what exactly will be the mission of these American vessels.
It would not be wise to assume that the United States suddenly took up the cudgels for the Philippines as it is not expected that the US will accost Chinese ships or physically prevent the continuation of construction at the reefs.
They are there to remind the Chinese not to threaten the flow of global commerce and not to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone or ADIZ at the WPS. It is doubtful that they are there to protect the EEZ of the Philippines nor to escort Filipino fishermen.
Filipino fishermen and the EEZ will continue to remain vulnerable to Chinese depredation. The danger is that it is raising expectations so high in the Philippines and if the US fails to deliver from the point of view of what Filipinos expect, a new round of recriminations will ensue.
Meanwhile, the economic problems of the United States has been added to a litany of perceived grievances by Filipinos on American reliability as an ally thus making the Philippines question the military alliance that it has with the US instead of figuring out ways to derive opportunities for the Philippines. Unfortunately, the Philippines in general has a very black and white appreciation of the alliance it has with the US.
An example of this is the recent US willingness to deploy ships to monitor the establishment of Chinese bases at the West Philippine Sea has boosted the morale of the Philippines however it must be determined as to what exactly will be the mission of these American vessels.
It would not be wise to assume that the United States suddenly took up the cudgels for the Philippines as it is not expected that the US will accost Chinese ships or physically prevent the continuation of construction at the reefs.
They are there to remind the Chinese not to threaten the flow of global commerce and not to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone or ADIZ at the WPS. It is doubtful that they are there to protect the EEZ of the Philippines nor to escort Filipino fishermen.
Filipino fishermen and the EEZ will continue to remain vulnerable to Chinese depredation. The danger is that it is raising expectations so high in the Philippines and if the US fails to deliver from the point of view of what Filipinos expect, a new round of recriminations will ensue.
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| Chinese naval destroyers during a military exercise. Although China has become stronger than ever, it does not necessarily mean the US has become weak just because of their delayed movement and decisions in the WPS issue. |
In the case of China, the Philippines does have a tendency to excessively exaggerate Chinese capabilities without a realistic assessment and an understanding of the environment. Filipinos tend to bean-count when it comes to Chinese capabilities and strength and look at it from a strict Philippines against China framework. The fact that China is facing multiple opponents is seldom taken into consideration or if ever is quickly dismissed with the statement that “Beijing will buy them off eventually.”
Aside from the Philippines, China has territorial disputes with three major regional powers and these are Japan, India, and Vietnam. The navies and maritime capabilities of both Japan and India are individually superior in many aspects to that of the Chinese.
Although China did make much noise about the launch of its aircraft carrier, in contrast, the Indian Navy has been operating carriers for half a century while the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force has commissioned at least three ships they euphemistically call destroyers but are almost similar to light aircraft carriers.
In fact the most recent ship to be commissioned, the Izumo is as big as the carriers of the Second World War Imperial Japanese Navy.
Furthermore, the important thing to remember is China’s military modernization is in transition and in absorption of new military hardware whereas its rivals are already advanced not just in the possession of equipment but also in the operational uses of such.
Also, China’s aggressive moves has resulted in its assets experiencing overstretch as it has to deal with neighbors who have been angered by Beijing’s brazen activities.
In the case of Vietnam, the Philippines seems to fail to recognize that despite the Vietnamese being very confrontational with China and figuring in many incidents since the 1970s and most importantly having no tangible military alliance with a superpower, Beijing cannot impose its will with finality on Hanoi’s scattered outposts in the West Philippine Sea.
That then is an indication of Beijing’s weakness which should be clear for all to see but unfortunately the Philippines has become accustomed to the habit of scaring itself witless in the face of China and is averse to taking on the Chinese physically in defense of its territorial integrity.
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| The Philippines is not the only country China is in a disagreement with, there are bigger and powerful regional countries like Japan (above) and India who are also in the game, that are probably bent in containing China's aggressiveness in the region. |
2. China is too powerful while the Philippines is too weak:
There are other limitations to the Philippine’s appreciation of China’s ambitions despite overwhelming evidence that points to a much grander geopolitical objective. One of the fallacies entertained by the Philippine side is that the Chinese are only after economic resources in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and nothing else.
The First and Second Island Chain strategy of China, the establishment of obviously military installations at the West Philippine Sea by Beijing, and even the blatant implementation of an Air Defense Identification Zone at the area in all aspects but in name only as seen in the harassment of a Philippine Air Force airplane and recently a US Navy reconnaissance aircraft by Chinese installations and vessels all cannot seem to convince quite a number of public figures and even academics that the objective is more than just fishes and energy resources.
The First and Second Island Chain strategy of China, the establishment of obviously military installations at the West Philippine Sea by Beijing, and even the blatant implementation of an Air Defense Identification Zone at the area in all aspects but in name only as seen in the harassment of a Philippine Air Force airplane and recently a US Navy reconnaissance aircraft by Chinese installations and vessels all cannot seem to convince quite a number of public figures and even academics that the objective is more than just fishes and energy resources.
It is true that aside from the hundreds of warships in the Chinese Navy, there are also approximately more than 400 China Marine Surveillance vessels that implement Beijing’s territorial ambitions in the West Philippine Sea and elsewhere.
Against this huge Chinese armada, the Philippines can only commit several dozen ships of varying capabilities and hence the belief that the country is weak and can never overtake or even face off against China is firmly engrained in the minds of many Filipinos.
What again Filipinos fail to realize is that these Chinese assets are also deployed elsewhere especially against the formidable Japanese and redoubtable Vietnamese and not even mentioning the goliath that is the United States Navy.
China has obviously bit off more than it can chew and is obviously trying to bluff its way into a de facto situation favorable to it in the West Philippine Sea which no other nation is buying into except unfortunately the Philippines which remains consistently mortified of Beijing.
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| The Philippine military might be weak, but with proper decisions, support, and commitments by the government to improve its condition and provide what it needs, it would still be possible to make it a force to be reckoned with even by a regional power like China. Photo by the US Navy, taken from Wikipedia. |
3. A fixation on the military solution when coast guard can be used instead
There seems to be an overemphasis by the Philippines on facing the challenge posed by China through a military solution and because of the sorry state of the Armed Forces of the Philippines it results in two situations.
The first is that the modernization of the armed forces especially the navy and the air force will take at least 10 years and even then it is not a guarantee that modern military capabilities will be used in a confrontation with China because the political leadership can just decide not to provoke the Chinese out of fear.
The second is because the military is taking too long to modernize and the belief is that it is the crucial lynchpin upon which all else lies, the tendency then is not to actively engage the Chinese because the country is defenseless.
It really has not sunk it that one of the most effective ways of frustrating the Chinese is through the use of the coast guard as the primary instrument. Just looking at the way Vietnam and Japan block Chinese incursions through the use of low-tech coast guard vessels that given their nature do not raise the ante to high as to warrant the use of military force should provide a guide as to how to deal with China in the WPS.
Furthermore, not unless the Philippine defense establishment has modified its defense strategy for the Philippines, the concept of defense in depth at the West Philippine Sea that first appeared during the modernization discussions in the 1990s and sometimes appears in current discussions on strategy has always been rendered moot and academic by the insertion of Chinese installations behind and in between Philippine installations.
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| The Philippine government must make use of its Coast Guard to avoid giving the Chinese a reason to use their navy against our forces. All the coast guard needs is more attention and funding for it to be able to acquire the skills, men, structure, and equipment that it needs. |
PART 3 - BEYONG DIPLOMATIC PROTESTS: A proposed approach on territorial dispute with China
Scarborough Shoal more than Ayungin should have been the line in the sand for the Philippines vis a vis China. Now that it is gone, great effort must be taken that the Philippines should not take one more step backward as it has been prone to do in the past. To do that, the Philippines must undertake a combination of actions that will aim to stop China in its tracks in the West Philippine Sea aside from the arbitration case and the diplomatic offensive.
Aside from the raising international awareness through its current diplomatic offensive, the Philippines should ensure that appropriate steps are done to take advantage of China's territorial disputes with many of its neighbors by establishing coordination and support among the maritime and naval agencies of countries such as Japan, Vietnam, India, and Indonesia - aside from the United States.
This will then not just be the task of diplomats but also of the entire Philippine government including Congress, the Department of National Defense, and the AFP.
There is a need to project to China the message that other countries are not just committed but also coordinating in a multilateral effort to squash Beijing's ambitions. As it is Beijing's desire to drive a wedge between countries in the region either through bribery or intimidation then it is important not just to establish a multilateral diplomatic effort but more importantly a working multilateral maritime effort that does not necessarily have to be within existing frameworks of multilateral engagements such as ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum.
Overstretch China
Multinational patrols and coordinated actions are one sure way of overstretching China's maritime and naval assets to the point that Beijing will run the risk of suffering the fate of the Soviet Union (when Moscow wasted its resources in catching up militarily to the United States in the 1980s) if it decides to try to pour additional funds to increase capabilities.
China can be frustrated through such an effort which is why this early it has already been trying to bluff its neighbors to deal with it bilaterally so it can divide and conquer.
Also for the Philippines, calling out allies for mobilizing support against China divides Beijing's attention and buys time for capability buildup whether in the Philippine Coast Guard or the Philippine Navy.
There must be added emphasis on the buildup of capabilities for the Philippine Coast Guard. Compared to the Philippine Navy and Philippine Air Force which have to go by modern military and technological standards in hardware acquisition, vessels for the PCG do not necessarily have to be state of the art.
All they need to be is be robustly constructed, have good communication equipment, equipped with non-lethal capabilities (i.e. water cannons), and large and strong enough to withstand being rammed by Chinese maritime vessels.
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| Above shows Japan Coast Guard and Philippine Coast Guard ships in a joint maritime exercises recently. If improved and combined in coordinated action with other friendly coast guards in the region, the PCG can become a major role player in maintaing peace and stability, and enforcing the Philippines' sovereign rights and laws over its territories and interests in the WPS. |
PH ships, Filipino sailors
It is very much within the capabilities of Philippine shipyards to churn out several dozen of such low tech vessels within a year and there are enough personnel graduating from maritime schools looking for jobs who can man those ships.
The personnel advantage of the Philippines as a major supplier of seamen for international shipping and as a builder of sea vessels are being overlooked. Costs will be significantly lower compared to the modernization of the AFP and this will allow the Philippines to establish a presence in its EEZ (exclusive economic zone) quickly and cheaply.
Just as important is that not only will these vessels protect Filipino fishermen but they will also particiapte in the efforts to break through expected Chinese blockades of Philippine garrisons at the West Philippine Sea.
Alhough much effort is being put increating a monitoring capability for the Philippines but knowing is useless if there is no capability to challenge.
The role of the PCG is to cover the gaps and buy time as the Philippine military undergoes its protracted modernization that is has been trying to do so for the past 25 years since the Philippine Senate kicked out the US bases.
In this regard, it may be advisable to remove the PCG from the Department of Transportation and Communication that already has its hands full in the traffic and transportation situation of Metro Manila alone and turn it over to the Coastwatch Council which itself may be transformed into a Department for better focus in lieu of the heightened role of the PCG in the preservation of the country's territorial integrity.
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| The Philippines is a natural seafaring nation, a potential maritime power, with the men and knowledge as a backbone to support and attain this goal. All it needs to reach this is the support of the Filipino people and the government. |
Turning the KIG installations into hedgehogs
The garrisons of the Philippines must be strengthened and their capacity to withstand protracted periods of Chinese blockades and harassment. Provisions must be stockpiled especially that of water and food.
If need be, defenses must also be improved. The issue of the survivability of Ayungin must be addressed and decisions must be made and carried out to improve the outpost there.
Most important of all is to look at Philippine garrisons as a threat to China and not to look at China’s garrisons as a threat to the Philippines.
In that manner, there will be ways upon which the strengthening of the capabilities and survivability of the garrisons can be done.
As China wants to cut the KIG garrisons off from the Philippines, these very garrisons which are in between Hainan and Beijing’s WPS installations can threaten China’s overextended links that stretch much longer and are more vulnerable to disruption.
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| The Philippine should improve its facilities, structures and defenses in the Kalayaan Group of Islands, and maintain them in top condition. This is the only way to keep its foothold on the remaining islands it holds. |
A shift in Philippine attitude
Although the Philippines will and should commit great effort to win over more and more allies and take advantage of its defense alliance with the United States the primary responsibility for the defense of Philippine territory rests with the Philippines itself.
In the current pivot to Asia that the United States has announced, the Philippines must not raise its expectations too high as to what the Americans will do for the Philippines.
Even with Japan declaring that it will study the issue of using its forces abroad in situations that they will consider as a threat to their national security and the Indians also echoing the same thing, none of these nations will physically assist the Philippines if the Chinese continue to harass Filipino fishermen.
That responsibility rests with the Philippines alone and it is expected that the Chinese will continue to deny the Philippines the use of its own EEZ.
Hence, multinational efforts may derail China’s strategic ambitions for the 9-dash line and the 1st and 2nd island Chains but it will not prevent them from committing acts of mischief against Philippine interests in the WPS.
Furthermore, as the Philippines has for whatever reason, chosen to always remain doubtful of American reliability in the mutual defense treaty, the same guessing game also pervades the Chinese and they too have no idea what the US will do if China attempts to use military force against the Philippines and this can be used by Manila against Beijing.
Hence the Philippine side should not blink at China in its run-ins with that country at the West Philippine Sea. It must understand that China is still in no position to wage war and is bound to lose one given the strength just of the United States alone not to mention Japan and others deeply suspicious of Beijing.
China’s hubris
China is trying to bluff its way into the greatest theft of territory since the 1940s and Manila should call Beijing’s bluff.
Some years back, a senior Chinese officer boasted of a so called “cabbage strategy” that saw to the strengthening and gradual improvement of China’s garrisons in the WPS and the effective isolation and neutralization of those of the Philippines.
With regard to that, once the Philippines decides to call China’s bluff and takes a more active role in defending its territory and EEZ both unilaterally and in coordination with allies, Beijing will see its cabbages simmered and boiled in a stew of its own hubris.
Some years back, a senior Chinese officer boasted of a so called “cabbage strategy” that saw to the strengthening and gradual improvement of China’s garrisons in the WPS and the effective isolation and neutralization of those of the Philippines.
With regard to that, once the Philippines decides to call China’s bluff and takes a more active role in defending its territory and EEZ both unilaterally and in coordination with allies, Beijing will see its cabbages simmered and boiled in a stew of its own hubris.
The truth and reality of the current WPS situation is that the Philippines is incapable of militarily confronting and stopping China from it’s reclamation activties and much more from kicking China out of our Spratly Island Reefs and Scarborough Shoal. There are however 3 other options in stopping China’s expansionist aggression but will require radical changes in our Constitution.
ReplyDelete1st Option – Attack China’s economy to weaken it militarily. If we do not want to spend billions of pesos in procuring military hardwares then Invite all foreign companies based in China to transfer their operations to the Philippines by giving more attractive investment enticements & incentivess worth billions of pesos than what China can offer like !00% customs & corporate tax-exemptions, no worker-strike policy,100% land-ownership, low-worker salaries complemented by gov’t-subsidized worker benefits, etc. The only benefit the government will get is stable employment for the 30% unemployed Filipino population. The strategy here is to destroy China’s economy with the millions of jobs lost from the thousands of companies that will transfer their operations to the Philippines and solve our country’s unemployment problem. This will require changes in our constitution.
2nd Option – Let the United States, Japan and Australia take the military responsibility of stopping China from taking control of South ‘China Sea & WPS while the Philippines concentrate more on developing our economy and totally eliminate muslim and communist insurgency in our country. Change our Constitution to allow the US, Japan and Australia to counter China’s military intentions at Spratly Islands from our mainland. This is done by providing the US, Japan & Australia radar, naval, air & missile bases along the length of Palawan and Western Luzon with their full control. Militants,nationalists and oppositionists will say this will violate our sovereignty as an independent country. My answer is the Philippines allowed China to trample our sovereignty by invading & occupying our Spratly Island Reefs and Scarborough Shoal, allowed Chinese naval ships come and go inside our EEZ, allowed illegal Chinese fishing boats exploit our EEZ marine resources , allowed China destroy our coral reefs through island reclamations,.allowed China bully us at will without a fight. And what the Pnoy Administration did in defending our sovereignty. He withdrew our PN from a stand-off against China. Such a cowardice and so stupid decision.
3rd Option – Make the Philippine the 51st State of the United States of America and let the USA kick China our of the oil-rich Spratly Islands and maybe also kick Malaysia out of our oil-rich Sabah. Maybe the next US president could be of Filipino-American descent just as Pres. Obama is of African-American descent. We will still have Filipino Senators and Representatives in the US Congress, Filipino State Govenor and City Mayors, no more US visa required and more Filipino soldiers employed in the US Armed Forces. The Philippines will become one of the richest state of the US and project US military power from the Pacific Ocean into the South China Sea.
This is laughable.
DeleteThe first option is not economic warfare. It's simply business as usual. You don't need to invite any corporation into the Philippines. When the Philippines become more attractive to businesses than China, they will move out of China and into the Philippines naturally. The Philippines, and every country in the world, already tries to make themselves as attractive to businesses already, so in what way is your proposal different from what the Philippines is already doing today?
The second option is functionally the same as giving up since you are letting other countries handle one's national defense. Why not give up at being a nation while you are at it?
The third option is the most ridiculous. Have you asked any American on whether they want to include the Philippines into the USA? They'll laugh at you. Why should they adopt a loser who has given up? Have you considered asking China if they will include the Philippines as a province of theirs? It's no more ridiculous than asking to be part of USA. You already gave up at being a nation, so you might as well beg for anyone to take you in.
Thankfully the vast majority Filipinos aren't like you.
I think you are the one who is laughable and have misguided perception…
DeleteYour reply to the first option is you have no understanding of how a country can make China-based corporations transfer to another country. Just by doing the “usual” business as you say. So why has the thousands of China-based foreign countries transferred to other countries who can offer better terms and conditions. The answer is because there was none that can offer better than China.
Your reply to the 2nd Option is answered by the 3rd option. Even in God’s time and even if the Philippines has minimum credible defense today, with a coward Philippine leader as a President, the Phil. is incapable of kcking China out of Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. It is only possible in your dreams. It will take a Superpower like the US or maybe a high-tech power like Japan that will make China listen.
For your reply on the 3rd option, you can ask that to the 6 million Filipino-
Americans now living comfortably and securely in the US, their millions of relatives wanting to follow as immigrants and the thousands of Filipinos lining up at the US Embassy hoping to get a US Visa. If there is a survey conducted today if Filipinos will opt for US Statehood, I’d say more than 50% of the Filipino population will agree especially the “masang” pilipino whose priority is to have a better life and sovereignty as an independent country is not important to them.Surveys was never pursued bec. so-called “patriotic & nationalistic”corrupt politicians knows they will loose their hold on their corrupt political business. And they are just a few of them including their militant, leftist, communist and brain-washed fans which probably includes you.
First option is basically sell out your nation. Guest who have the most money to buy your nation? CHINA!!!
DeleteSecond is basically turn your nation into multiple nation colony.
Third. They don't even want to adopt their own territory in the pacific as state, why would they want Philippine?
Let others do the fighting for you? jeez, now thats dope. If you were my little brother id beat you like hell first and then leave you cowering against your enemy. You dont stand up for yourself, you dont deserve my help
Delete@Anonymous June 7....When Pres. Aquino saw that China beat-up Vietnam when it tried to fight China alone one-on-one, Pnoy got scared so he went to the UN for help, asked our big Brother USA for protection and talked with friend Japan how to fight a common enemy China. You want the Philippines to stand-up for itself & fight China only to be beaten-up like Vietnam. Don’t you think your little brother would have a bigger chance of fighting and beating up a bully if he has help from a gang of friends than just fight the bully alone. Try beating first your little brother then throw him to the bully to fight alone and he will end up dead.
Delete@Anonymous June 6...
DeleteFirst Option, China is the first to sell-out to foreigners and turned the country around with a strong economy better than the US. The Philippines can do the same if it has the political will.
Second, a country with close friends like the US, Japan and Australia helping out to stop a thief like China has a greater chance of success than trying to be a tough guy but only to be beaten-up.
Third, because “It’s More Fun in the Philippines” hehehe…
Anon June 8, if i were in a gang of bullies you asked for help, i wont frickin help you. why? at the first sign of trouble what do you do? nagsumbong ka. you do that to your parents/family, because blood ties would work. In a gang, respect is earned, not privvy, not begged. Show to that gang your worth first. Frickin crybaby with no balls at all jeez
DeleteSir Max, would it be possible if the Government could go to a Government-to-Government deal if the 2 frigates bids fail? Would this be? and is it possible in this situation to fast track the acquisition?
ReplyDeleteDepends on how the procurement board can adjust due to urgency.
DeleteI'm going to keep this simple.
ReplyDelete1. First on the list is that we need to select a president who would take a hard line on Chinese policies. Sorry for their supporters but It's not going to be Duterte, Lacson or Binay. Each one of them has stated that they are going to work with China and not against them. People need to remember, and it's fairly obvious to me - China is the present day bad guy in the neighborhood and any self respecting country should not ally itself with China.
As for the other presidentiables?.. Roxas? He does not seem like a guy who takes a stand - this guy will just play it safe. We don't need people like that. Poe? I dunno, somebody should ask her about this, but I'm not too optimistic.
Truth is, I don't know who can step up, but the guys I mentioned, they're not going to help us.
2. The people must take an active stance on the issues on the WPS and the modernization to a point where the words: "Fa-50", "frigates", "the KIG", "EEZ", "9-dash line" and many others, shouldn't be just terminologies for netizens, and groups of patriots like us. The moment the common Pinoy is aware of what's happening on the WPS and our modernization, the more participation we can get from them. If Manny Pacquiao gets a lot of buzz, why can't we do the same with our military? It's time the government launches a propaganda of sorts, not only to instill patriotism, but educate as many Pinoys as they can regarding defense matters. We're wasting too much time on FB, let some of those time be productive for a change.
3. We need to weed out those who are against the modernization or is slowing the modernization down. I don't mean killing them, but them in a place where they could not hinder the modernization.
4. We need to freaking increase the budget for our military. The AFP's plans is a very modest plan, and one that's conceived with peace on mind. That plan is bu-llshite. There's a clear threat in our midst and we're arming ourselves from a rusty 38 caliber pistol to a caliber 45 and then call it modernization.
PH must not only speed up its modernization but also, add on the current plans. The current plans aren't going to give us peace. I think (and sure I could be wrong), China has seen how a spunky we are, and we're doing it without any decent military capability. China is moving now because they know, once we get our machines of war, it's not going to be fun times for them.
5. Lastly, do not forget about the Japs. I'm wary about US intentions, but the Japs? They're going to be there for us. If I were China, I'd be looking very closely at the PH-Jap ties. If PH does it's part and strengthens its military on a decent level, the PH-Jap combo would be able to deter even China.
- Neo
I agree with you Neo. None of the present candidates will promote the country's interest in the West Philippine. My comment below is the one that says the analysis of the professor is flawed. We like minded patriots should unite and come up with a political party that will promote a better Philippines that is technologically advance and militarily strong. We could actually replicate what Japan did before it industrialized. It sent its men abroad to study and came back home and transformed their country based on what they have learned abroad.
Deleteat least we learn something more informative.... the problem with us we keep on dreaming every frigate we need to acquire but we forget what would be our first move to counter the growing number of CMS and CHINA COASTGUARD in the west philippine sea. our poor fisherman was being left behind by our inutile leaders. The chinese is playing a white strategy in the west philippine sea so as not to alarm the world of their true military dream. the white strategy must be counter with a white strategy for the philippine side since this is only the part that we can play them on. Instead painting our GREGORIO DEL PILAR CLASS with a gray paint why not retain the white paint and have them a blue stripe and name it with PHLIPPINE MARITIME ENFORCEMENT ship under the paramilitary force of the philippine navy to complement the philippine coastguard in enforcing our laws. Then we need to fasttrack the acquisition of our 12 multirole vessel for philippine coastguard from japan. After we acquire the 12 multirole vessel with 2 GDP class patrol ship , lets get it on... deploy 4 multirole vessel back 1 GDP class in scarborough shoal with the fisherman in northern luzon. at least we can play with them now. Another 4 multirole vessel back by 1 GDP class in mischief reef , 2 multi role vessel in ayungin shoal and the rest will be for patrol mission and survellance.
ReplyDeleteGrand plan that not supported by reality such regional politic, domestic politic and budget.
ReplyDeletehmmm.....
ReplyDeleteI think the idea of strenghtening the coast guard with locally produced ships is the most economic and fastest way of checking china and putting coast guard back into the fold of the afp is the right way dotc sec abaya cant even handle the mrt problem
ReplyDeleteSa KANGKUNGAN, jan ulit tayo pupulutin pag tayo ay ginyera n ibang bansa.Hintayin pa ulit natin na pulbusin ang Pinas ng isa pang digmaan bago magising ang mga konsensya ng mga Pinoy.
ReplyDeleteKung ako lang masusunod,
1. gawaan ng mga barko - maraming trabahador ang kakailanganin.
2. steel mill - marami ulit trabahador ang kailangan
3. indirect jobs - supplier na kakailanganin sa loob ng mga barko.
4. Mga Tangininang mga pulitiko - MAGSIGISING KAYO MGA KUPAL
I agree on this one. Massive military build up of our defense industries that will hit 2 birds in one stone and that is employment and locally made defense materials. what is Armscor doing?, GA, bring back ELISCO, we have excess graduates of PMMA who can man our ships, we have many unemployed shipbuilders, what are we waiting for, election?
DeleteOnly one thing I say for it, and that is because the previous Government of Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo failed to modernize the AFP. Mga walang kentang Presidente. Somehow Pnoy is also similar with this previous none sense President ads he failes to modernize especially the Navy. Hamilton ship? Oh my God.. Whats the use of this. Im pretty sure Government can buy anything and in fastest time.
ReplyDeleteOne of the best solution I guess is to put a radar which can detect and overview the whole WPS and then in every Islet have their own mini wharf with two patrol boat from coast guard and navy and at the same time a helicopter capable of ASW. This is what I am waiting for the time that UNCLOS will have the result that the Philippine has filed for claim.
ReplyDeleteThanks to MaxDefense for enlightening us with Professor Jose Antonio Custodio insights and ideas regarding the different ways to contend with the " Red storm looming over the WPS horizon " . One of the comments that actually shook my brains was the Philippines attitude in contesting China's muscle flexing is we've already throwing in the towel without starting the fight . We still are in that " colonial mentality syndrome " . We forgot about our forefathers who stood their grounds to defend their home and ways of life against overwhelming odds. We put too much emphasis on ourselves instead of analyzing them . What is their "Achilles heel " , Professor Custodio was able to summarize and expound on their nature and intentions and purpose . He was right even with an extensive reforms and modernization it would still be a cat and mouse game but there are other ways to skinned a cat . I've actually read the article several times and it suddenly occurred to me that the author was not even in the military yet he understood the charade that was playing in front of us. Sometimes we need to think out of the box . Our leaders should put on their thinking cap or better yet ask one of Professor Custodio's cap. And try to look at the picture of what's looming on the WPS horizon and ask themselves our we just going to watch them take those islands one at a time.
ReplyDeletePres. Aquino knows that even if he pursues full-blast acceleration for AFP Modernization, we still won’t be able to stop China’s reclamations unless the US gets involved and take the side of the Philippines which will never happen. Buying MRFs, Frigates, MPAs, MPACs etc. will only drain the remaining DBM budget which can be better utilized for economic projects. This is the reason why the AFP’s modernization projects are being delayed by Pres. Aquino and instead he is relying more on the useless UN Tribunal Arbitration case, EDCA & VFA agreement with the US and now he is pursuing VFA agreement with Japan which are not too expensive to the DBM budget,. Pres. Aquino is just biting time for the next incoming president to handle the burden of AFP Modernization before he leaves office bec he doesn’t want to leave his economic gains & achievements be destroyed if he pursues a defiant, confrontation against China.
ReplyDeleteour policy makers need to meet and consult to layout the best strategy regarding china. and this strategy should be a combination of military, economic, political including back channel talks because china seems to be very decisive on this issue and is preparing for war.
DeleteThe analysis of the professor is flawed. Coastguard ships without the backing of strong Navy and Airforce will be more than useless. Make no mistake gentlemen, China will use military force! They are already planning how they can best control the areas they are claiming. Their approach to warfare is multi-dimensional and it will really involve military action coupled with propaganda, cyber warfare and the likes. The insistence on producing paramilitary ships with minimal capabilities and the belief that a white on white strategy will work is disastrously wrong.The only reason why the shooting has not started with Vietnam and Japan is because China is still testing the capabilities of its neighbors. It does not take a genius to realize that China is preparing for military action with its island building strategy. Has anyone not notice that whenever our Navy and Coastguard are confronted with superior vessels from China and Taiwan, they are always backing down. Our sailors know the painful limitation of their equipments and the lack of support from the leadership of the government. Take the case of the Taiwanese fisherman who was shot for violating our waters and refusing to stop at the command of a law enforcement vessel. Our leaders backdown, punished the coastgurad personnel and were quick to sign a fisheries agreement disadvantageous to the interest of the country, because the Taiwanese have a better navy, better airforce and a lot of our countrymen work blue collar jobs in Taiwan. If we want to stop our neighbors from occupying our territorial waters and airspace then we have to show them that we have a nasty BITE! We have to have sufficient deterrent in the form of brand new warships, submarines and fighter jets. Having coastguard ships is like having goats to guard your house or estate, it does not stop a thief or make them think twice about entering, but having 1 nasty pitbull (modern lethal warship) will. I do not accept the excuse that building a strong navy will cost a lot of money and will take a long time. The government is already spending money on questionable overpriced projects. The problem in modernizing the Navy and the Airforce is not money but political will and leadership.
ReplyDeleteAs back-up support to PCG ships/boats, start with coastal-based Anti-Ship & SAM Missiles batteries first as the platform for launching defensive/offensive/counteroffensive missiles bec. MRFs & Frigates are too expensive to use as platforms that our limited budget cannot afford. Mobile land-based long-range missiles can be procured cheaper, delivered quicker and harder to neutralize than MRFs & Frigates. Brahmos, Hawk and Patriot Missiles of different variants are a good start.
DeleteI'm in favor of having more CG ships, just because PH totally needs white ships as we are an island nation, this should have been common sense long ago.
DeleteBUT WITH REGARDSTO SENDING WHITE SHIPS TO THE KIG? WITH REGARDS TO A WHITE VS WHITE STRATEGY?, I'm afraid, it's already too late for that.
I'm in favor of strengthening the CG, but that should run parallel with the AFP modernization. I know the modernizing the AFP is not as easy as modernizing the CG, but we have to do it. We are in dangerous times, it's imperative we get things done as fast as we can. If we want to upgrade the CG, okay fine, but let's not put this ahead of procuring Navy assets. Let's do both at the same time.
China is gearing up for a fight. the bitch is setting the board, moving pieces, fortifying strongholds.. and when she feels she's ready, what's our armada of ships going to do about it?
- Neo
and if there is no political will and leadership what do we do as concerned citizens? what are our options? nothing really. the only way these idiot politicians will move for our defense is when China finally have complete control of south china seas. so far this may not happen though now because Japan and US enters the picture and counter harass China.
Deletewe another people power, use social media, external defense should be one of the topics in coming elections. but this takes time. we need action now and that is only thru social media and people power. but will the people support this agenda? is another question. it seems the country is really not geared to be a truly independent nation.
Deleteremember also that Sun Tzu (who is Chinese) in the art of war is being read and studied by military academies in the west and by defense planners. This means China's military planners are on the top of any military strategy in south china sea. Beware. versus we have nothing but refurbished AFP. If ever war breaks out between US & allies against China, the Philippines will most likely be the battle ground. we need a credible defense and not just rely on our allies for equipment and weapons systems. we need to have our own. if we think if China invades the Philippines and another US General will say they shall return, lol. that may not happen this time and even if it does it will be a difficult mission. maybe a million in casualties.
Deleteas tensions rises in the WPS wherein multinational forces are joining to check China's activities there, the PHL is the one most affected by it. the way i see the current situation, the trouble in WPS is less by far than the troubles we have here in mainland PHL courtesy of CHINA also. take a look how they destruct our environment through black sand mining, the mining of our minerals using our small scale miners as fronts, the rampant smuggling of chinese cheap goods flooding our markets and the large scale manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs in our streets. these things must be the first to address by the government so that somehow China will see us as a nation deserving of their respect. let the trouble in WPS be confronted militarily by multinationals led by US.
ReplyDeleteso when the chinese navy and coast guard begin blockading the WPS so our nation's trade and commerce is severely affected, civilian airlines are harrased by chinese planes so air traffic is affected, anytime they have gripes with economic trade with us they can use this blockading threat as revenge.....or how about the continuous harrasment of our fishermen until they can no longer go out for more than a dozen kilometers into the WPS while chinese pillage the marine environment....how about these? will you consider this as threat enough to our national security? problem is, when you see this happening it is already too late for a lot of damage will already have been done....the other countries like the US will not help with problems like this,...it is up to us, and the time is now to act to prevent this..NOT LATER.
DeleteThere is still no material contingency action on the part of our government to strengthen the external security capability of our country. It is a complete mystery to me. What kind of leaders do we have?
ReplyDeletethe leaders of such with disregard to our territories and external defense neglecting the AFP upgrades depends on the people. it is now the people who will decide to make this idiotic leaders to focus on external defense or nothing will happen as we already seen in the past 25 years. maybe we need another people power.
Deleteslavery by the chinese-filipino businessmen and your own corrupt filipino politicians..the internal problem is you are the brain slaves by the chinese. what you eat,do..is EVERYTHING CHINESE.
ReplyDeleteThe fact remains that at the present time we are not in a position to wage war at our own accord because of the limited capabilities of the AFP . That is why Professor Custodio has outlined several different approaches the Philippines can response to China's actions in the WPS. We all agree that first we need to invest on our defense,the security of the Philippines and its territory is vital to the growth and the ability to sustain the emerging economy. It is also a fact that no matter how much we invest and modernize our military we are limited to the amount of response our military can sustain. We are challenging a country who has greater resources than us but is also being challenge by USA , Australia & Japan not to mention other SEA countries that are involved in this crisis. That is why he reiterated in several instances that first and foremost is how the whole nation attitude in facing this dilemma and that we need to take into account several resources that we have that can be use to our advantage in response to this impending threat. The PCG is a vital tool in our response to secure our territory and which is also a way to dictate the type of response from the other side. As it was stated the PCG is only part of the contingents , we need to strengthen our Navy for this will be needed to support the PCG as it faces the possibility of any escalation that can occur. The Air Force as well as the Army can play a role to strengthen our outlying outpost. These outpost should be reinforced and improve to counter the threat its facing. The coast guard and the rest of the different services can be integrated with the National Coast Watch as part of the new agencies to counter the threat its facing. One of his suggestion is the PCG needs to separate from Department of transportation since it is already overwhelmed by its current responsibilities. Why not establish another Agency similar to USA Homelands and Security which interlocks all services that are involved with national territorial security. Can you imagine with an improve and reinforced PCG and the fishing industry with all its fishing boats sailing to WPS at the same time to fish. That would be an overwhelming sight for the Chinese Coast guard. I would strongly suggest to take time to read and digest Professor Custodio's article regarding the Philippines strategy against China's territorial expansion. It may not be a 100% Solution as other reader my perceived but Majority of what was outlined by the professor are the outlying facts and the truth is our options and response would be limited by time which we continuously wasted . This is a defining moment for us Filipinos as a nation and a member of the world community. There are no other course but to draw the line and make a stand .
ReplyDeleteits better the PCG be a part or branch of the Navy like the Marines is part of the Navy.
ReplyDeleteThe PCG used to be part of the Navy. It would be best for it to be outside the military, and avoid getting the same funding curse as the Navy.
DeletePhilippines Increasing Interested in Submarines
ReplyDeletehttp://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/06/philippines-increasing-interested-in.html
What do you think people?
You might be surprised what is being discussed recently on the submarine plans. If all goes well, we'll see a sub within less than 3 years.
DeleteGoody good Sir Max,
DeleteBut that's still a BIG "IF".
I belive the PN was "certain" they'd get frigates though, and to me "certain" is waaaay more re-assuring than "IF". Just a couple of months until 2016 and we still have zero brand new frigates.
So yeah.. I'm not keeping my hopes high and I would remain skeptical..
..But of course I'd go freaking nuts if we're serious on getting Soryus when all I want are Andrastas.
But since Max just said we could get just 1 - my money is on the Oyashio or Harushio. And this would be a sub just for training.
Thanks for the info Sir Max.
- Neo
$500 million for a single submarine is not worth throwing that big amount of money. I would rather buy 250 units of anti-ship missiles or 250 MPACs at $ 2 million each....
DeleteThe Philippines buying even just 1 diesel submarine will take several decades before we can have one or maybe we may get lucky if the US will donate a very old give-away submarine to us after removing it's nuclear armaments & high-tech electronic systems & equipments and to be used only for training purpose....
DeleteThe determination to get submarines now is far far different and better than ever before for the PN. So let's not compare this effort and previous efforts anymore.
DeleteNeo, you might want to collect your money soon. You just scrapped the surface of the iceberg.
That's interesting sir Max.
DeleteAs I remain skeptical, I also am trying to temper my enthusiasm.
But I do see the probability of PH having a sub is getting better. Thanks to Japan.
Three years in acquiring a sub is not a far fetched plan. Specially if we aren't going to get a sub meant for combat. And most specially if that sub has no real cost.
The lone active Harushio-class submarine that is meant for training, seems like a logical give-away asset. Japan would be scrapping that sub anyway in less than 7 years, so why not give it away?
The 3 year waiting time for us is just the time allotted for us to:
1. Send sailors and engineers to Japan for training
2. For the PN to build submarine hubs to house those subs. (Please take note that although I expect 1 sub in 2018, that doesn't mean we're stopping there. So yeah I meant hubs and subs.)
And this leads us to the Oyashio class. We're not getting the whole fleet outright, maybe just one initially. And I won't be surprised if that's a training sub yet again. But the way I see it, the PN would get the whole fleet eventually. One by one. For every Soryu Japan commissions, we'll be getting an Oyashio. And this would probably start around 2021.
So one might think, by 2021, these subs will be 15-16 years old. So why do we need subs that would only be useful for about 10 to 15 more years?
First, I think these subs will be relatively cheaper than any other sub in the market. Japan will make sure of that. Second, we need to train people in submarine warfare and acquiring the Oyashio class is like paying for training. And that training will allow us to get the Soryus (maybe by 2030?). Last, I think the PN knows they need real teeth for China to take us seriously. We're not going to match China's number of frigates and subs, but the thing with subs - they're there and they're not there at the same time. The Chinese can count our frigates they could see, but they can't count the subs they don't see. The moment we get combat subs, the Chinese will need to plan for those and that changes things a bit in favor of the good guys.
- Neo
Neo, the availability of the subs will be the key. It will now be all dependent also if the Philippines can make a PH-JP VFA a reality, as it will also cover visiting Filipino troops in Japan for training or schooling.
DeleteHonestly, I wouldn't even be surprised if the PH-JP military ties goes beyond VFA. The Japs aren't just arming us, they're creating an extension of their military with Filipino soldiers in it.
DeleteIn other words - PH is shaping up as Japan's militia force.
I am not opposed to that. For the moment, we need the Japs more than they need us. But the Japanese investment does not come without a price. In an event of war, Japan would expect us to join the fray just as fast as the US.
And that's fine by me. We're going to go to war anyway if Japan gets attacked.
- Neo
You have to consider the difference of Japanese and American assistance. Japan has more at stake in the issues against China and in the West Philippine Sea than the Americans. Japan is directly affected here, that's why you must consider the eagerness of Japan to assist anybody in the vicinity with the same issues against China.
DeleteMalaysia also recently had the same agreement with Japan as the Philippines, so they might also be looking at getting new and used equipment from Japan. Vietnam will also be another possible beneficiary. Now Japan doesn't need to scrap all their retired equipment, all they need to do now is give them for free or for little a price to its friends with conflict with Japan.
Yes sir Max, it is why I think the Japs would help us more than the Americans.
DeleteAnd I would like to think, the Japs are more confident with an alliance with the Philippines more than any other country in Asia. Vietnam is still a communist country and Malaysia is still China's dog despite the occasional growls it does to its master.
Japan wants to acquire all the friends it could get. Thus, the assistance for everyone opposing China. When the dust settles though, I think PH will have the bulk of Japan's military aid.
- Neo
Lets wait the Orion plane first before talking about submarine.
DeleteIf they don't give it for free or ask price higher than we willing to pay, then we can buried the dream to own a submarine.
Just look USA, all that reserve fleets and no free donation. And their rock bottom price is still too high for the government.
There is no free good weapons in real world.
Sir Anonymous June 12, 2015 at 8:33 PM:
DeleteI must admit I have geared towards a different topic here. But Sir Max, was leaking information I have not found anywhere, and that information sparked my interest. Being a self proclaimed advocate of submarines for PH, I wanted to confirm that what I have in mind is correct. Please excuse me if that upsets you.
But anyway, I'm pretty sure Sir Max wouldn't mind a healthy, respectful conversation and I hope he makes a separate post about this "speculation" of submarines for PH.
About the submarines (yet again), Japan's offer will be the best offer PH could have. I have already stated my belief based on sir Max's "teaser" what PH and Japan is trying to accomplish. It's pretty detailed you might want to read it. But then again - it's just one man's opinion. You are free to debunk it any time.
- Neo
If our present 2 Hamilton-Class Frigates are helpless in stopping Chinese reclamations and incursions in/out of our EEZ, what 's the point of spending for a submarine that will also be of no use in stopping China's activities. The budget for a submarine will be better utilized in buying more PCG Patrol Boats from Japan from 10 to 100 Patrol Boats.
DeleteAnonymous June 13, 2015 at 3:47 PM, - In terms of procurement, there's nothing PH can do with the Chinese reclamations. That ought to be obvious by now.
DeleteSomeone has stated this already, PCG ships needs the backing of the military. Those white hulls can't do it by themselves. I would agree with anyone here if he says we need 50 more hulls for the PCG, but I would disagree with him if that's the only course of action we PH should take. The Navy and AirForce needs to be strengthened too. Yes, our budget is limited, but there is no way around this.
And in an armed conflict (which could happen admit it or not), I would rather have subs than PCG boats. But since we're still not at war, I would rather have a good number of PCG boats plus a good number of combat assets.
Why can't those assets be subs? If PH can get them and it is found feasible, why won't we get 'em?
A balance between whites and grays is what we need. Even if that balance means a combo of PCG ships and subs. Yes, it's unorthodox but we need to be creative. A hi-lo mix of assets, presenting the very low and the very high, because we can't afford to have more of the assets I would like to consider "in-betweens".
- Neo
We're not getting subs because we want to stop Chinese reclamations or incursions. This country is an archipelago and you guys know that. Even without the imminent threat of the Chinese, an island nation such as ours should have this capability. It's beyond ridiculous to think non-island nations as Ecuador and Colombia has subs, even Bangladesh is ordering some soon. We're closer to a conflict than any of those 3 and we have vast expanses of water we need to patrol more than those 3 nations combined. And yet we have no subs.
DeleteIf that's not enough.. we get to read about this:
"Thirteen senators, representing the majority of Senate, are asserting Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and United States falls into the category of treaty or international agreement and that the power to enter into it does not rest solely on the President but is shared with the Senate."
I know this isn't directly related to the topic of either subs or PH claims to the WPS but.. we can start correcting the wrongs by:
1. Asking them what's the alternative if we don't get EDCA?
2. Making sure Bong Revilla and Jinggoy Estrada does not have a say in anything remotely related to the betterment of this Nation. They don't have anything to contribute really.That goes for Lito Lapid too.
- Neo
Anonymous June 14, 2015 at 1:40 PM. Good if we have the budget to buy both low-cost patrol boats and expensive submarines. The bottom-line is our govenrnent is already hard-pressed with only P90 billion ($2 billion) military budget for a 5-year period. How many 5-year periods or presidential terms are we going to wait before the the budget can be raised to the level of Vietnam which is able to buy 6 kilo-class submarines. Other important AFP military assets (MRFs, missile batteries, radar systems, MPACs, transports, light tanks, copters, etc) have not even been completely procured yet. At this time, start with small items first that can be delivered earlier & are immediately useful and provide results like catching illegal foreign fishing boats and not expensive submarines that will only drain our military budget, takes time to deliver and will just be used for loitering around the West Philippine Sea for nothing and maybe being trailed by an advance Chinese nuclear attack submarine that will decimate it with just one push-button in a minute.
DeleteAnonymousJune 15, 2015 at 5:31 AM,
DeleteSome notes:
1. Someone is suggesting a hundred PCG ships rather than combat assets (subs in this case), I merely stated we can't do that. PCG ships + subs ok, but PCG ships alone is not ok. My point is we need PCG ships and I'm in favor of it, but we need assets with teeth too. And subs represent some of the deadliest fangs of any Navy.
2. Who says we would acquire attack subs ahead of missile batteries, radar systems and even the MRFs? We can get a sub by 2018, just like I said, it would be a training sub - and it would not be expensive, if it doesn't come free at all. The training sub is a small item, along with other small items, we need to get one, specially if it comes free (just like what I said, Japan would be scarping the sub, why not give it to us for free?).
3. I'm not worried about Chinese Nuclear subs, the diesel ones worry me more, but if you are a sub being trailed, you aren't doing it right. It's why we need to learn. Why do you think we're considering Orions, Wildcats, and Torpedos? The PN is gearing up for submarine warfare and having a sub of our own is part of that. And I'm not even speculating, as sir Max has stated, the PN is seriously planning to have submarines.
4. Even Arleigh Burke destroyers can be incapacitated by a push of a button - so what's your point? Are you implying we shouldn't have subs because they aren't torpedo proof? or they're too old to keep up with Chinese subs? The Oyashio class currently is a formidable class of submarines, and even if it gets old by 2028, I rather have old subs than zero subs.
5. I agree with you on the budget thing though, although I have said the subs specially the training one wouldn't cost us money, the succeeding subs, although I believe will come at a very discounted price, it will still cost money. I am trying to operate on a budget with PCG boats and subs just to be creative, but I admit there may be loop holes I can't see.
And this is where I force feed my opinion - PH needs to modernize it's military. And we need the money. I think PH has the resources, we can pony up the money, but we just do not prioritize, and it goes down to whether PH values it's survival or not. The politicians obviously don't care. But someone has to, or else we are all doomed.
- Neo
Yes, you are right. By 2018, the Philippines can possibly buy a submarine but more of a leisure or tourist-type of submarine if not the types used for academic research or sea exploration that costs between $2-$20 million and that’s second-hand used already. For naval submarine training, the government has to shell out $100-$500 million for just one brand-new sub depending on the propulsion and displacement. The Swedish Gotland-Class is the chepest at $100M I think, the Russian Kilo or Lada class at $200-250M and the German Type-212 at $500M. Japanese subs costs $2 billion (Soryu-Class) w/c the Philippines cannot afford even a 2nd-hand. And that doesn’t include the annual operating, refueling & modernizing costs for a sub’s 30-42 year lifespan. Maybe after 30 years, the government has aready the budget for One (1) $250M AIP-type diesel-powered attack submarine.
DeleteWhere did you get the $2 billion (Soryu-Class) figure?
DeleteFYI, this are the Soryu cost figures through the Japan MOD.
Soryu class
2010
Building of submarine(SS) (1 ship: ¥52.8 billion -USD430,069,200
2011
Building of submarine(SS) (1 ship: ¥54.6 billion -USD444,730,650
Build one submarine (2,900 ton) as a replacement for the submarine Asashio which is expected to be retired in FY2015 (enhanced X-band satellite communications capability)
2012
Building of submarine (SS) (1 ship: ¥54.7 billion) -USD445,494,304
Build one submarine (2,900 ton), which is an improved version equipped with Torpedo Counter Measures
2013
Building of submarine (SS) (1 ship: ¥53.1 billion) -USD432,512,775
Build the 9th Soryu-class submarine (2,900t class)
2014
Construction of a submarine (SS) (1 ship: ¥ 51.7 billion) -USD421,109,425
Construct the 10th Soryu-class submarine (2,900t class) to increase the number of submarines from the current 16 ships.
2015
Construction of a submarine (1 ship: ¥64.3 billion) -USD523,679,776
Construct the 11th Soryu-class submarine (2,900t class) to increase the number of submarines from the current 16 to 22 ships.
Improve underwater endurance, etc. compared with the existing Soryu-class submarines by mounting lithium-ion batteries
Herbie
Figures varies depending on the on the internet websites where you get your source...In this case, it's actually A$2 billion (4,200 tonne) and add inflation will probably reach $2 billion...
Deletehttp://www.janes.com/article/43041/australia-leaning-towards-buying-soryu-class-subs
"Yes, you are right. By 2018, the Philippines can possibly buy a submarine but more of a leisure or tourist-type of submarine if not the types used for academic research or sea exploration that costs between $2-$20 million and that’s second-hand used already." - Anonymous June 17, 2015 at 1:56 AM
Delete- I've been saying this a few posts back.. my guess is we get the lone training Harushio sub from the Japs.
- Second had? Yes.
- Exploration/Tourist Sub? - More likely not. It's still a mimlitary sub albeit for training purposes. Will it be combat ready? Most likely - no.
Would cost $2M? For ths sub? I doubt it. A few more years and it would be up for scrapping, again, why wouldn't the Japs give it for free? Only cost we would likely be having is refurbishing and training.
But let' say we get the Harushio for $2M. So you're saying $100M would be the minimum cost for a $2M sub?
And you are disregarding the fact that these subs would come from the Japs. If we're getting a sub from any other country I would have to agree with you. It would cost us. But since these would be from the Japs they shouldn't, or at the very least --- the Japs are going to get return value from their subs thru other means and possibly very friendly payment structures.
Again, my basis for PH acquisition of subs depends on the JP-PH relations. It wouldn't be a far fetched idea we get subs if both countries are willing to make it happen.
As sir Max has reported (very briefly at that), at least the PN is thinking it could happen. It's not just my idea.
- Neo
I hope our government people are looking and reading this articles here.
ReplyDeleteIt is disappointing to see comments here that say we cannot win because no matter how much money we put in China still has a bigger military. It is exactly this defeatist mentality that limits our country/military's capability because we are always thinking that we can't do it and so what we think becomes our reality. Filipinos always think of the size of their enemies when they instead should be thinking of its weakness. We have not even tried to buy the needed equipment and yet a lot of our people are saying it can't be done... Again i say the analysis of the Professor is flawed! We only need a bit more investment in our military and i say to you that we can cause real problems to the Chinese and if we have determined leadership and fighting men we can win. We only need to buy the equipment and train our people. Please let us not make self militing assessment. We have a lot of intelligent and capable people but the problem with the masses is they keep on electing uneducated and corrupt individuals who are putting the country in decline. The problem is the media namely GMA 7 and ABS CBN are not helping as they are also polluting the minds of our countrymen with uneducated shows and news. What the people see in the media is what they are imitating. It is about time that intelligent, honest, patriotic people get involve in politics so that we can see real change in our government. We can win and we should be determined to win...
ReplyDeleteGawing Teleserye ang problemang ito ng mapansin ng madlang people... baka mapansin...
ReplyDeleteHanapan ng commentaryo ang mga artista tungkol sa problema
Naka ugat na kasi sa utak ng bawat Pilipino ang kawalan ng pag-asa kaya nilulunod na lang nila ang sarili nila sa mga pantasya ng Teleserye... magagarang kasal...at karangyaan ng mga artista..
Nakakainis man pero yung ang totoo..
Good idea pre', dapat na po-promote ang military naten, ito yung sinasabi ko na propaganda, masyado kase walang paki-alam ang mga mamamayan naten sa state of securityng bansa naten, puro artista ina-atupag. Why not the government produce their own films? Like say parang yung sa series na "The Last Ship"? I don't mean na gamiten naten sa shooting ang GDP or Alcaraz, pero we might need something similar na doesn't need to cost a lot (na magaling naman si Mother Lily dyan, mga movies na walang ginastos na malaki pero kumikita).. Why not make a TV series na fiction pero based on the men of Ayungin? I don't see how you can't make up stories about that.
Delete- Neo
The reason i was not impress with the assessment of the Professor is because it misleads the people on what we should really do. He mentioned a fixation on a military solution. We are not fixated with a military solution. Let us face it if we do not have the weapons to back up our protest of their occupation of our territory we would not see them leave our territory. Moreover i do not think that they bit more than they can chew. Have you seen how they contruct high rise buildings in China? They do it in a matter of days. I believe they can also do the same with their production of warships. But having said that they have a large navy and more lethal weapons should not discourage us to fight. If we do not fight them we risk experiencing what Tibet and other small countries have experienced which is the invasion of their territory. Also we would lose the respect of our allies and enemies alike if we do not put up a fight to defend what is ours. We should imitate and if possible better what Vietnam did during the Vietnam war. They never gave up and their perseverance paid off. Remember one of the weakness of China is its 1 child policy. Imagine all the officers in the Chinese Navy are likely to be the only son of their parents. If we take out a lot of them it would impact China dramatically. I believe we can win. We only have to give our soldiers the right equipment namely submarines, warships and fighter jets. What is frustrating is the ningas kugon of President Aquino. He advertised that he would provide modern equipment for our soldiers and yet up to now the only territorial defense weapons that have materialized are the fighter jets. Whatever happened to the brand new frigates? Whatever happened to the up-arming of the cutters we got from the US, where are the anti-ship missiles that were supposed to be installed on them? Where are the shorebased and surface to air missiles. Most of our leaders now are busy preparing for the next election. It is so sad. I hope real patriotic Filipinos would come together and create a political party that would provide the Philippines with better class of leaders who are honest, intelligent and patriotic. Those who have a can do attitude, have a good vision for the future and can think creatively and come up with solutions when confronted with challenges like having to repel the Chinese ships from Philippine territory. I am praying for a Philippines that will be technologically advance, economically and militarily strong in the near future.
ReplyDeleteWith the present Pnoy Administration, we are losing. Losing our reefs and Scarborough Shoal bec. of a weak and cowardly leader. Cowardly bec. Pnoy doesn’t know the difference between getting into a war against China and confronting China into a stand-off. We don’t need to send our PN ships to engage into fierce sea battles against the Chinese ships bec. it will be suicidal. We just need to send our civilian PCG ships/boats to harass and block China’s efforts of harassing our own fishermen and reclaiming our reefs and shoal inside our own EEZ. If the PCG doesn’t have big ships like China’s CG & maritime ships, then transfer all the PN ships to PCG and just leave the 2 Frigates to the PN so that the PCG can do it’s job. Lease available domestic civilian passenger, cargo ships & oil tankers then use them in blocking and harassing Chinese ships. Arm our leased ships with more powerful water guns from the fire department & protect our ships with whatever firearms we can get from the Philippine Army like heavy machines, bazookas, artillery guns, guns from unused Simba/Scorpion tanks/mothballed F-5s, grenade launchers, etc. Limited military budget is not a reasonable excuse for not having the needed weapons. Creativity is needed if the government don’t have the money to provide the AFP. Ask the US Navy to escort & protect our civilian ships in enforcing our law-enforcements by blocking Chinese naval ships from harassing our civilian ships inside our EEZ bec. we have every right to travel within our 200nmile territorial sea & exploit our EEZ marine resources under UNCLOS. The DFA & DND just talking, condemning and complaining without taking “forceful” actions has emboldened China to pursue & continue with it’s expansionist aggression.
ReplyDeleteThe problem why this Modernization is on a SNAIL PACE and SELECTIVE PROCESS because Ninoy will be throwing money on this coming election. What he did was NINGAS CUGON. SUch continuity to push for modernization lies with the coming elected president. If you will notice our GDO is about .5% during the first quarter, if the govt did not control our spending on infrastructure then our GDP will be higher. Why because of ninoys hidden spending progam or we dont have the money. This is also the possible reason why there were canceled bidding postponement and re scheduled bidding and delayed projects in the military as well as in govt infrastructures
ReplyDeleteThe solution to accelerate AFP modernization is for the AFP to start planning for a coup d'etat during the 2016 elections, declare the country in a "State of Imminent Danger" from China's expansionist aggression, dissolve Congress, curtail the power of the Supreme Court and replace the Malacanang caretaker government with a Military Council whose main task is to prepare the AFP to defend our territorial sovereignty in an alliance with the US, Japan & Australia. Then restore the government back to presidential elections after we have regained back our Spratly Island reefs and Scarborough shoal from Chinese occupation.
ReplyDeleteSounds like what a paid Chinese fifth columnist would say! Yes, a coup d'etat is a great way to smooth the way for the Chinese take over of the WPS. It will, at one stroke, make the Philippines a political pariah in South East Asia, delay and even cancel all defense cooperation with American, European, Japanese, South Korean, etc., because not a single one of them will want to support a military coup, mire the Philippine into another decade of internal struggle, scare away investors from the Philippines, and hey, during all that chaos, who will notice if China occupies a few more shoals?
DeleteSo, how much were you paid?
A military coup d'etat is always associated with a bad connotation but if carried-out with good intentions and for the good of the country, it is an exception. A government that is being ruled by a dictator or by an administration incapable of defending our territorial sovereignty and selling-out our country in exchange for Chinese financial bribery deserves to be toppled by the AFP if not People Power. If Binay becomes the next president w/the secret intention of giving-up our territories to China just like what Arroyo did & abolishing our VFA with the US just as when Estrada kick the US out of Subic & Clark bases, it is time for the AFP to start planning for a coup d'etat and defend our territorial sovereignty. The US will probably take the side of a coup d'etat if it will serve the interest of the US. Have you wondered why we get very little military assistance from the US since we kicked them out of of Subic naval base & Clark Airbase and why the US provides better military cooperation with South Korea & Japan for providing the US with military bases to operate.If China will pay me $2 million, ninili ako ng isang MPAC and start catching as many illegal Chinese fishing boats inside our EEZ o protektahan ang mga mangingisda natin sa paglalayag nila sa Panatag Shoal.
ReplyDeleteI have not known a single coup d'etat that isn't supposedly done with good intentions and for the good of the country. Muammar Qaddafi said so in Libya. Saddam Hussein said so in Iraq. Pinochet said so in Chile. And now you said so too. I can go on and give a long list of military juntas and all of them say that what they did was for the good of the country. No exception.
DeleteNice try, but we know that you are simply trying to con the people. If China pays you two million you'd be in Macau having a high time, but chances are they're just paying you fifty cents per post.
Don't compare the Philippines to Middle Eastern or African States bec. the AFP is a more professional force. Have you already forgotten that the dictatorship of ex-Pres. Marcos was toppled when. Juan Ponce Enrile & Fidel Ramos with support of People Power. Are you a leftist or rightist militant ? Because your mind is obviously confused not to know what a Chinese-paid fifth columnist is. Unlike me, you don't have a solution on how the Philippines can kick China out of Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands. If you have none, then your opinion is pure nonsense hehehe...Peace pre...
DeleteAFP is indeed professional, which is why they will not listen to your encouragement to overthrow the legitimate government. Your argument never made sense. Either the AFP is a professional force, in which case they will not do it, or they are not professional and is willing to attempt a coup d'etat, in which case the coup will fail, or worse, succeeds and ends up making the Philippines into another impotent banana republic.
DeleteOf course, you don't care, because either way you get paid by your master. And do not expect anyone to tell you a solution either. First, one does not need to have a solution to recognize stupidity when one encounters it. I'm not an automotive engineer and can't design a car, but if someone tells me my car can go faster if I get rid of the brakes, I can tell him that's stupid. Second, it's beyond my paygrade. There are professionals who are more qualified than me whose job is to look into this. From the outside you can see things are being worked on behind the scenes. Is it slow? Yes, but in my experience anyone selling quick solutions is basically scamming you. Which is what you are doing. Third, even though I can see the outline of a plan and can make educated guesses of what's being done behind the scenes, it will be stupid to tell it to a Chinese Communist Party shill.
It just came to me that it's possible that you are actually a Filipino who got conned into believing that bullshit about a military coup being the solution. If that's the case, dude, you have been so thoroughly scammed. Learn history.
So sir max malabo na iyong awarding two brand new frigates sa winning bidder? Wala na ba pag asa na abrupbahan ito ni Pinoy? mid June na kasi it's look shelves muna ito and bahala na ang next administration? Kawawang PN-AFP parang tinakaw lang..tsk..tsk..tsk
ReplyDeleteLet's wait until July. If after July still nothing, then we'll probably miss the chance of having a new frigate.
DeleteThank you sir Max. Sana naman ma consider ni PNOY habang nan diyan pa siya.
DeleteHi Sir Max. Not sure how true the report is. maybe others can confirm this from other sources.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.manilalivewire.com/2015/06/us-senate-wants-to-arm-the-philippines-and-other-allies-to-counter-china/
-Ytzen
We've been endlessly discussing the use of manilalivewire as a source, because the website itself already confirmed that they are actually a satirical site. So unless you want incorrect information, I suggest looking for a more reputable source.
DeletePara sa mga magagaling na politicians natin. Ang latest news ay inuumpisahan nang pasukan ng Tsina ang Recto o Reed Bank dahil malapit nang matapos ang reclamation sa Spratly Islands na magiging staging area sa pagsakop sa KIG at Reed Bank. Ano ngayon ang gagawin ni Pnoy. Panay dakdak na naman ang gagawin. Ang sarap kutusan ang ulo para matauhan. Ang dapat niyang gawin ay utusang konprontahin ng PN/PCG/BFAR/Maritime Police ang mga Chinese Maritime/CG/PLA ships at paalisin sa EEZ zone natin. Ang tanong ay may puwersa at kakayahan ba tayo. Ang sagot diyan ay mayruon dahil handang lumaban ang AFP kahit kapos sa kagamitan. Kung isa kang duwag tulad ni Pnoy tumahimik ka na lang dahil hindi mo alam ang ibig sabihin ng ipagtanggol ang territorial sovereignty natin at handang mamatay ng dahil sa bayan tulad ng isang sundalo. Alam mong kantahin ang "Lupang Hinirang" pero hindi mo naiintindihan ang ibig sabihin ng nilalaman nito. Ang AFP na ang dapat mamuno sa pamahalaan at ikulong lahat ng mga corrupt government officials/AFP Generals para mabawi ang mga ninakaw nilang pera ng bayan at maibili ng mga armas na kailangan ng AFP sa lalong madaling panahon.
ReplyDeleteSir Max hindi ko maintindihan itong si PNOY at ang liderato ng PN/AFP bakit hindi nila tinuloy iyong Maestrele deal with Italy eh gayong urong sulong tayo sa 2 bagong frigates na up to now eh hindi malaman kung aaprobahan ni PNOY o hindi. Eh di sana mayroon na tayo ginagamit sa patrolya at credible warship pa hindi iyong para tayong tanga na iyong GDP natin eh parang gunboat lang ni walang missile at sensors plus iyong Humabon eh up to now ayaw natin i-retire. Ano ba ang utak ng mga yan at saan kumukuha ng kapal ng mukha ang mga nasa liderato natin. Ako as a taxpayer pinipllit kung gampanan and duty ko na magbayad ng tax para makatulong sa gobeirno pero sa ginagawa nila nakakainis NGANGA lang tayo nagaantay ng awa sa ibang bansa. bwisit talaga ang systema bulok talaga.....
ReplyDeleteI hate to say this being a Filipino myself but due to our low vision and lack of it and plenty of inept in our leadership and our corrupt culture which that's why up to now our AFP is refurbished and we cannot even managed the islets we occupy in WPS like at Pag-asa island the runway is damaged and no harbors for ships. and at Ayungin we have a rusty about to sink PN ship being used by our Marines as barracks. I hate to say we are losers. China build all these recalamations with speed and first class structures with green houses and missile batteries. we have to accept it that they are the winners while we are the losers. had we maintained our ownership of the the others we would not be able to maintain it anyway and maybe even destroy the environment thru dynamite fishing, cyanide fishing, drug smuggling ports, etc. lets accept the reality and be losers and engage china in bilateral talks. we try to talk tough and push US and Japan in front of us. what a loser are we. lastly we never modernized the AFP up to this day. so what do we expect? if we are smart we think of our survival by engaging china bilateral talks because if shooting war starts between china and US and Japan the Philippines will be the battle ground and more casualties and hardship for our people like whats happening now in Middle East and Ukraine. do we like that to happen to us? think again.
ReplyDeleteI have a better idea. just buy 500 to a 1000 of this KA 50 trainer jets and convert them to full pledge MRFs loaded with weapons systems and turn it into Kamikazes tora tora suicide missions against China. this is the best pinoy style cheap way of doing the modernization. llolllll
ReplyDeletetsk i think most of the comments here came from a adult who have a brain like a child....we always blame our government for their failure to modernize the armed forces while we filipino citizens let them have their way to plunder the government funds even the convicted government officials can still run for government office and still voted by the citizen and win im sure in the next election and we have a new president those senators convicted of plunder will be freed and back to senate office what the hell...because of those corruption that our armed forces decline to the lowest they should be sent to normal bilibid prison not a vip prison that they can still live in a luxurious way...we are part of the problem also because we let that happen we have anti dynasty bill but still not implemented and we still let that happen and many more laws that are critical for anti corruption campaign are not implemented. until no changes in the government happened and our citizen keeps voting on them dont expect too much about this modernization im assured that all we can buy is small firearms and ships that no missile or watsoever......
ReplyDeleteor maybe its really in our genes that to be governed by other races how can i say that
1. from the past how many races conquered our lands and yet here we are still cant defend our land because we have this trait in our genes n bahala na and last minute shopper n andyan n s bakuran ung kaaway dun lng kikilos kung kumilos man eh kulang pa
look at south korea they been invaded by the north but after they repelled the invaders from north with the help of united nations that include us they modernize its armed forces because their genes teling them not to let that happen again to be conquered by the north
filipino contingent n pinadala s south korea n pinamunuan ng isang pinoy pro ang commander nya is kano lumabas ung true potential ng mga sundalo ntn tinalo ntn ung 40k n chekwa lban s 1400 im not sure s exact figure n phil army noon. unlike ngyn n pinoy ung team leader at pinoy ang commander im sure alam nyo n sagot dyan
japan after us beat them in WW2 and got nuked look at them they are still very strong and can defend its land and no invader dares to attack them they are still 2nd largest economy during that time until now
pansinin nyo mga ofw ntn nkakakuha ng mataas n posisyon s mga company s ibang bansa kc spalagay ko mas lumalabas ang totoong potential ntn pag ibang lahi ang nagpapatakbo s atin....mrn nga aq nabasa n my pic ni pres. quezon its said the philippines run by filipino is hell something like that pakicorrect n lng...
hnd ko cnasabi painvade n lng tau kaya lng prang nsa genes n tlga ntn n to be governed by other races not to lead a country kng atakehin man tau ng china at matalo and united states liberate us again and tlake over this country from this crocs which is i hope so i dont see it bad...
itoy sariling opinyon lng and wala sanang maoffend n mga bata dto heheh
All I am reading here is "Pie-in-the-Sky," solutions, dreams & fantasies. Ships? When was the last time the PH built it's own? You have the ship yards, manpower & know how, why the delay? Building garrisons in the SCS? Why? How will you resupply them, defend them, etc.? The 51st U.S. state? Seriously, put down the Shabu pipe. Filipinos might wish this, but Americans do not. Allowing the U.S., Japan, etc. to fight your Bullies for you? Yea, get ready to hand over your sovereignty on a silver platter. The best course of action that the PH has, is to utilize its current assets..."People," & take a lesson from your known history of fighting as Guerrillas, because a lot can happen by the time your wish list gets filled, if ever.
ReplyDeleteIt is time to retrograde into your own hinterland, mountains & swamps to start planning an "Internal Defense," TODAY, with what you actually have at hand, NOT what you wish to have tomorrow.
What I would offer, in the form of a proposal, which would have to be pursued by Filipinos, is to use what assets you actually have available in order to defend your own country:
1. Establish a 3-week (21-training days) "RECONDO" School, at Fort Magsaysay, located in Palayan, Nueva Ecija.
(Recondo: LRRPs in the 101st Airborne) http://www.amazon.com/Recondo-LRRPs-Airborne-Larry-Chambers/dp/0891418407
a. Request training assistance from PACOM (Free & temporary).
2. Establish a "Guerrilla Militia Headquarters," adjacent to the RECONDO School.
a. Request advisory assistance from PACOM (Free & temporary).
3. Establish “Guerrilla Militia Battalions,” in each province, to fall under the political leadership of the elected Governor, Tactical leadership of an assigned AFP Special Forces Team, & advised by a U.S. SOCOM designated, 12-man/woman, "Unconventional Warfare Detachment," on TDY status & rotated every six months (for as long as the Philippines desires them to be there in order to assist in standing up these battalions).
4. Continuously run RECONDO classes year-round, training approximately 144 prospective Guerrillas (12-twelve man/woman teams) from the same province, per class. The training cycles will rotate between provinces, accepting 144 prospective Guerrillas from a new province each class, until each province has attained an initial goal of 1,200 Guerrillas in their province’s Guerrilla Militia Battalion.
5. The Guerrilla’s primary weapon will be a 12 gauge single-barrel shotgun (New England Tracker II Slug Shotgun SB1014, $169.66.
http://www.hinterlandoutfitter...
w/Scavenger Kit - 12 Gauge
http://www.gunadapters.com/cat... ; to be maintained as the Provincial Governor dictates.
6. Since this will be a Guerrilla Militia Battalion, there will be NO uniforms, or unit type indicators. Besides the weapons, all Guerrilla issued items will be sourced from inside of the Philippines. However, the Unconventional Warfare Detachments may provide additional equipment from time-to-time, as it becomes available.
7. Battalion assemblies, payment, equipment stocks/issue, will be the responsibility of the Provincial Governor. Tactical deployment for training & during the time of war will fall under the AFP Special Forces Teams, as directed by the Militia Headquarters.
8. Specialized training, equipment & missions will depend upon province location, such as an amphibious capability.
9. The eventual size of the “Guerrilla Militia Battalions,” for each province, will be determined by the Governor, but will never fall below 1,200 guerrillas.
Anyway, it is a suggestion as to how the Philippines might use what its current assets/strengths are to create its very own Guerrilla force, which worked so well during WWII, with very limited outside assistance.
Good luck...